ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Let's be honest. This is a nothing burger.

[BYG Jacob]

Let's be honest. This is a nothing burger.

This is 2017, anything is possible.

[NotSparta]

Let's be honest. This is a nothing burger.

This is 2017, anything is possible.

However, this is also Invest 99L, which either doesn't form or takes two weeks to do so

[floridasun78]

so we could see other invest in nw Caribbean after 99l go east of fl by weekend?

[psyclone]

Let's be honest. This is a nothing burger.

As a coherent TC you're probably correct. But this has the potential to be a coastal issue for areas that end up with a prolonged onshore flow over multiple high tide cycles. Many of these regions are more vulnerable than normal from yet to be repaired Matthew damage.

[Nimbus]

so we could see other invest in nw Caribbean after 99l go east of fl by weekend?

The Euro had Irma in the straits of Florida 240 hours out which is pretty amazing.
Lots of shear from the south pushing moisture from the Caribbean north over Cuba.
Any area with persistent convection that is not under too much shear could develop either in the Gulf or extreme NW Caribbean.

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 said if it stays to the east of Florida, it could become a ts.

[AdamFirst]

It'll likely be a weak entity if it even develops at all, but something this close to the coast is always worth watch.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.

A weak TS shouldn't keep people at home unless you live on the immediate coast, since it is unlikely 40 mph sustained winds would penetrate far inland in that case.

In Florida they close bridges once winds hit 39.

Not true, and not that I agree, but Brevard County opted to not close ANY of our bridges during Irma. (Rickybobby - are you Kate's friend from the Cape Canaveral VFW?)

[HurricaneRyan]

Considering all the quality storms we've had this entire month, a weak tropical storm is pretty much nothing at this point. And it's the N name - Nate isn't a bad name to have on the list.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

You might be surprised when i say this. I think this invest (Pre-Nate) could well become a hurricane. Seriously though, it could well be a major hurricane, hitting around Florida's First Coast (Dora 1964). I know Tammy '05 and Julia '16 though develop in similar location they didn't became a hurricane but Nate might well defy that. Why i said this? The shear seems to be favorable as it goes as Nate shoots NE before trapped in high pressure sending it west and the SST's are pretty hot there, you should know it...

[Sciencerocks]

You might be surprised when i say this. I think this invest (Pre-Nate) could well become a hurricane. Seriously though, it could well be a major hurricane, hitting around Florida's First Coast (Dora 1964). I know Tammy '05 and Julia '16 though develop in similar location they didn't became a hurricane but Nate might well defy that. Why i said this? The shear seems to be favorable as it goes as Nate shoots NE before trapped in high pressure sending it west and the SST's are pretty hot there, you should know it...

I aint ready to say hurricane but the Gfs 00z suggest something slightly weaker but with possibilities. I wouldn't discount the possibility of such getting a little out of hand.

[NDG]

I don't see much happening with 99L, trough axis is inland over southern FL. Maybe if the trough moves over the eastern GOM like the 06z GFS now shows, but UL winds will not be the best.

[LarryWx]

Yeah, the tendency of model consensus has been further west with the low forming, which is over FL instead of east of it. It wouldn't surprise me if this trend toward it forming over the far E GOM and then moving westward out further into the GOM were to continue.

[Evil Jeremy]

Yeah, the tendency of model consensus has been further west with the low forming, which is over FL instead of east of it. It wouldn't surprise me if this trend toward it forming over the far E GOM and then moving westward out further into the GOM were to continue.

The CMC has been suggesting that scenario for a few days now.

[ronjon]

06z GFS wants to split the energy now with separate EGOM and east coast of Florida low pressure systems. Not likely to form now based on the latest model trends. Still could be heavy rain for parts of Florida - something we certainly don't need.

[BYG Jacob]

Let's be honest. This is a nothing burger.

This is 2017, anything is possible.

However, this is also Invest 99L, which either doesn't form or takes two weeks to do so

If it does watch out for major hurricane Nate

[toad strangler]

This is 2017, anything is possible.

However, this is also Invest 99L, which either doesn't form or takes two weeks to do so

If it does watch out for major hurricane Nate

How do you figure????

[Nimbus]

Possible circulation forming just east of Belize.

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1056 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2017

UPDATE
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN SEA INTO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK LOW TODAY, INSTEAD SHIFTING THE TROUGH MORE
NORTHWESTWARD IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS.