ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

off topic... but since I cant find the IRMA thread... crazy time lasps of IRMA landfall in Carrib.. Eyewall then eye( can see the sun peak through ) then the backside and the crazy surge that started before the camera failed..



https://vimeo.com/235761428

[chaser1]

Thanks Aric! That's a frigging awesome time-lapse! I hadn't seen it before.

[decgirl66]

That is a CRAZY video of Irma!

[Emmett_Brown]

I'm located just NE of Orlando, and after a sunny and sweltering start, with calm winds, clouds are on the increase, and a fresh NE breeze has started. Feels nice! A quick view of the latest vis satellite floater shows 99L, and shows some slight rotation just N of West Palm, moving N.

[hipshot]

I'm located just NE of Orlando, and after a sunny and sweltering start, with calm winds, clouds are on the increase, and a fresh NE breeze has started. Feels nice! A quick view of the latest vis satellite floater shows 99L, and shows some slight rotation just N of West Palm, moving N.

It's hard to tell but the one you mention and the one near Key West may wind up being separate entities.

[bob rulz]

Are some places in Florida still without power from Irma?

[jlauderdal]

Are some places in Florida still without power from Irma?

keys for sure

[Aric Dunn]

well that's helpful.. lol

[rickybobby]

Did this go more west? Yesterday at 5 it looked liked it was going in the middle of Florida and head north. Now it's in the west coast of florida? Tony from west 2 said if it stays over water it could become a very weak ts.

[Aric Dunn]

Did this go more west? Yesterday at 5 it looked liked it was going in the middle of Florida and head north. Now it's in the west coast of florida? Tony from west 2 said if it stays over water it could become a very weak ts.

There are two areas.. one on the east coast just south west of Stuart Looks like it might make it off the coast near Melbourne later tonight if it has time to develop is the question.. The other is WSW of Key west just north of the coast of Cuba heading north. It is possible they try to organize seperately.

[stephen23]

Not liking the thought of anything possibly heading towards SE Texas. Doesn't matter strong or weak they simply can't afford the rain. Many towns entire towns still living in tents. Still no running water or power. Still areas where supplies are having to be boat in to communities. Lakes still very full. Won't take a huge amount of rain to become a real big problem again

[WeatherGuesser]

Now at 40/40?

[hipshot]

Now at 40/40?

Where did you see that?

[Stormcenter]

A broad trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level
low is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and
showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward
through the southern Florida peninsula. Environmental conditions
appear to be marginally conducive for some development and a low
pressure system could form near Florida or over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico before the upper-level winds become unfavorable early next
week. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of western Cuba, the Florida
Keys, and the Florida peninsula during the next several days while
the system moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Now at 40/40?

Where did you see that?

[Stormcenter]

From the NWS New Orleans afternoon discussion:


Long term...
guidance is somewhat Muddy on the aforementioned disturbance that
should increase rain chances Sunday into Monday and Tuesday. The
GFS is much more aggressive with this disturbance in both
intensity and progression. The European model (ecmwf) keeps this disturbance
disorganized and just as a inverted trough moving through at a
slower pace. By Monday this wave should continue to move west
along the southern periphery of the mid level ridge over our
coastal waters and along the coast. At this time it is not
expected to be very organized but it will lead to breezy
conditions especially over the coastal waters. Honestly, right now
the best coverage and chance of rain looks to be on Monday.
Either way, I have increased or maintained pops in this timeframe
to show the general wetter trend. One thing to point out
though...precipitable water values are expected to be well over 2
inches during this timeframe and model soundings are full of
deeper moisture. Rainfall Sunday through Tuesday could be fairly
efficient. Will have to keep an eye on this over the next 24 hours
to see how guidance and this disturbance develops

[Aric Dunn]

Very easy to see where the weak circ is and moving from the melbourne radar. Its moving north and may or may not get offshore. I think it has a better shot if some deep convection builds offshore and it reforms or gets pulled offshore. Right if it stayed moving north it would possible move offshore around cape canaveral. it is however quite a bit farther north and moving faster than the models for this particular portion of the trough/vorticity. I would like to see the models be initalized there but they likely wont.

The other area is taking shape, again on key west radar very clearly to the wsw of keywest. which develops who knows.. maybe both.. the low in the SE gulf of course has open water while the low in east center FL has land issues unless it does that loop that was earlier forecast by the models.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

If western convection is ever to develop, it will fall to shear quickly as a TD (at it's best) before it will make it as TS. The eastern one might not fall to shear quickly as the western one could.

[BobHarlem]

It looks to me that it's a broad "center" reaching from about Bonita Springs to Melbourne right now, not really organized.

[psyclone]

40% development probs seem generous at this point. It really just looks like a northward advecting plume of tropical moisture. Hopefully Floridians have their tarps secured.

[Aric Dunn]

watcing off melbourne coast the next few hours. a lot of convection building along a convergence line with clear rotation. weak but if it moves offshore it could spin up fast..

weak circ just west of FT pierce 15 to 20 miles.