ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#101 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:55 am

Ridging to the north is building in fast it is about to get shoved west pretty quickly. not enough to get offshore now. maybe the gulf briefly.

But the circ developing to the east with all the convection has a pretty good shot to briefly develop before the Shear kills it. And actually it already looks to be fairly well defined on satellite moving ese. convection starting to build closer to the circ.

I wonder if the NHC will catch it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#102 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:12 am

Aric Dunn wrote:off topic... but since I cant find the IRMA thread... crazy time lasps of IRMA landfall in Carrib.. Eyewall then eye( can see the sun peak through ) then the backside and the crazy surge that started before the camera failed..



https://vimeo.com/235761428

Irma thread is in the archives.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#103 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:46 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Ridging to the north is building in fast it is about to get shoved west pretty quickly. not enough to get offshore now. maybe the gulf briefly.

But the circ developing to the east with all the convection has a pretty good shot to briefly develop before the Shear kills it. And actually it already looks to be fairly well defined on satellite moving ese. convection starting to build closer to the circ.

I wonder if the NHC will catch it.


The ECMWF tries to spin up a new low off the SE coast and develops it quite well early next week before racing out to sea.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#104 Postby ava_ati » Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:57 am

GFS calling for about 12-14 inches of rain just off shore
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#105 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:03 pm

just on a side note.. the center looks like it is reforming just offshore St augustine.. Dont think it will have too much to do anything but may be enough to increase the coverage of the rainfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#106 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:37 pm

kind of entertainning to watch it reform offshore..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#107 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:55 pm

Yeah, winds are really picking up here at my home locale, Blowing at about 20 mph with gusts at near 30 mph at times with on and off rain. I have picked up about 1.5 inches of rainfall so far. which mainly occurred between 11 a.m. - 1:00 p.m. today.

Tomorrow will be the big rain and potential wind day here, much of it with the northeast wind gradient, but although the Low Pressure area is re developing around St. Augustine currently, it will begin to move back to the west as the big ridge builds down the U.S. East Coast seaboard and forces 99L westward.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#108 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:59 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, winds are really picking up here at my home locale, Blowing at about 20 mph with gusts at near 30 mph at times with on and off rain. I have picked up about 1.5 inches of rainfall so far. which mainly occurred between 11 a.m. - 1:00 p.m. today.

Tomorrow will be the big rain and potential wind day here, much of it with the northeast wind gradient, but although the Low Pressure area is re developing around St. Augustine currently, it will begin to move back to the west as the big ridge builds down the U.S. East Coast seaboard and forces 99L westward.


center relocation is litteraly like 5 miles east of marine land.. radar velocities showing it nicely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#109 Postby rickybobby » Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:20 pm

Last night they said it was suppose to start raining at2 and so far nothing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#110 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:20 pm

No spin up by tomorrow to keep the streak going?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#111 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:37 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:No spin up by tomorrow to keep the streak going?


if it can magically stay offshore.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#112 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:47 pm

Somebody said we only need about 3 days to tie the record for continuous TC activity, so a minimal TC that won't cause harm would be good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#113 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:20 pm

I think this invest won't make a 2017 version of Julia 2016 and Tammy 2005. Rather, it's going to be on the Gulf instead, if it wants to develop (peaking as a minimal TS if i am sure). You always surprised me Aric... :eek:
Last edited by SuperMarioBros99thx on Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#114 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:28 pm

St Augustine Pier has been reporting TD force winds all afternoon, probably more to do with pressure gradient between the weak low and building pressure behind the back door cold front along northern FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#115 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:30 pm

NDG wrote:St Augustine Pier has been reporting TD force winds all afternoon, probably more to do with pressure gradient between the weak low and building pressure behind the back door cold front along northern FL.


What exactly is a TD force wind?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#116 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:32 pm

RL3AO wrote:
NDG wrote:St Augustine Pier has been reporting TD force winds all afternoon, probably more to do with pressure gradient between the weak low and building pressure behind the back door cold front along northern FL.


What exactly is a TD force wind?


Lol, is a term some of us amateurs use.

Let me reword it, "they have been reporting light to moderate gale force winds."
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#117 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:35 pm

RL3AO wrote:
NDG wrote:St Augustine Pier has been reporting TD force winds all afternoon, probably more to do with pressure gradient between the weak low and building pressure behind the back door cold front along northern FL.


What exactly is a TD force wind?

For me, i guess it's 30-knot winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#118 Postby Orlando » Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:46 pm

There is a line of thunder and lightning moving in from the south. It is now around Lakeland and over to St. Cloud. I can hear the thunder from here, and it is constant. Must be a feeder band form this invest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#119 Postby smithtim » Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:.......Low Pressure area is re developing around St. Augustine currently, it will begin to move back to the west as the big ridge builds down the U.S. East Coast seaboard and forces 99L westward.


center relocation is litteraly like 5 miles east of marine land.. radar velocities showing it nicely.


I just walked outside to beach by my home in Ormond by SeA, maybe 10-15 miles south of there, and very strong due East onshore winds. So is that meaning the center had moved south? or is not really LLC with typical spiraling wind direction??

BTW I'd say gale force not quite TS force but still strong: it's not raining but when i was standing on the beach walkover it felt like was raining, i.e. wind strong enough to blow water off surf...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#120 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:12 pm

it look shear to high for td to form
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