ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#121 Postby joey » Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:27 pm

hello is this stilla invest dont see it labled on the map above and now looks like a td lol thanks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#122 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:38 pm

Wouldn’t be surprised to see this pull a Julia tonight and become a short lived 40 to 45 mph tropical storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#123 Postby artist » Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:50 pm

NHC 8 pm


1. Surface observations and coastal radar data indicate that an area
of low pressure has developed near the northeastern coast of the
Florida Peninsula between Daytona Beach and St. Augustine, and that
winds to near gale-force are occurring to the north of the center.
Additional development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely due
to unfavorable upper-level winds. However, gusty winds and locally
heavy rains are likely over portions of northeastern Florida and
southeastern Georgia tonight and Sunday. Please see statements
from local National Weather Service forecast offices for additional
information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#124 Postby joey » Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:57 pm

is this thing trying to drift south thanksn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#125 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:17 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Wouldn’t be surprised to see this pull a Julia tonight and become a short lived 40 to 45 mph tropical storm.

I think it might do a Julia then a Harvey-like (though not strong, maybe a weak 75 mph hurricane at it's best possible, but strong TS is far more likely) regeneration, when on Gulf.
Last edited by SuperMarioBros99thx on Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#126 Postby ava_ati » Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:18 pm

joey wrote:is this thing trying to drift south thanksn


Kind of what the GFS showed it doing, supposed to come back onshore around Daytona

Looks nasty on Radar, I don't know what you call that line around the L in a non tropical storm (squal line?) Whatever you want to call it, looks like it has bad intentions
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#127 Postby rickybobby » Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:06 pm

Daytona can see 25-35 mph gusts tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#128 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Sep 30, 2017 10:46 pm

Now 35kt. Will this be ever named Nate now???? :?:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#129 Postby AJC3 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:08 pm

smithtim wrote: I just walked outside to beach by my home in Ormond by SeA, maybe 10-15 miles south of there, and very strong due East onshore winds. So is that meaning the center had moved south? or is not really LLC with typical spiraling wind direction??

BTW I'd say gale force not quite TS force <snip>


The lower threshold for "Gale Force" and Tropical Storm Force" winds is identical..34KT/39MPH.

One difference between the two is toward which type of cyclone the nomenclature is applied - non-tropical (which includes extratropical, subtropical, post-tropical or hybrid) vs tropical cyclones.

The other difference is that they have a different upper threshold - 47KT/54MPH for a Gale, and 63KT/73MPH for a Tropical Storm.

"Storm Force" winds (again, used for non-tropical cyclones) are 48KT/55MPH to 63KT/73MPH.

And of course, "Hurricane Force" winds, which are used to describe the wind force in both topical and non-tropical cyclones, are 64KT/74MPH or greater.

Carry on...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#130 Postby JKingTampa » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:09 am

Curious to what the 2am outlook says. Now definitely deserves more than 20%. Seems to be persisting offshore in a nice blob. Lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#131 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:27 am

JKingTampa wrote:Curious to what the 2am outlook says. Now definitely deserves more than 20%. Seems to be persisting offshore in a nice blob. Lol.

I hope this will be named.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#132 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:28 am

IT's trying.. more than I thought it was going too..

center is sitting just east of the coast between ormodn beach and flagler beach.. convection has been sheared off but could refire. seems each convective burst drags the center slightly more easterly and or reforms. if it stays offshore they may upgrade to TD tomorrow.

also technically .. by definition being that this is warm core has a well-defined center and persistent convection (even though it is pulsating) would make this a classifiable.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#133 Postby La Breeze » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:47 am

Does this have the ability to develop further if it enters the GOM? If so, how strong and will it affect all of the northern GOM all the way to TX?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#134 Postby joey » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:51 am

La Breeze wrote:Does this have the ability to develop further if it enters the GOM? If so, how strong and will it affect all of the northern GOM all the way to TX?


gom ? when is this suppose to turn west ? :larrow:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#135 Postby rickybobby » Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:15 am

Only 10% of developing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#136 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:43 am

Aric Dunn wrote:IT's trying.. more than I thought it was going too..

center is sitting just east of the coast between ormodn beach and flagler beach.. convection has been sheared off but could refire. seems each convective burst drags the center slightly more easterly and or reforms. if it stays offshore they may upgrade to TD tomorrow.

also technically .. by definition being that this is warm core has a well-defined center and persistent convection (even though it is pulsating) would make this a classifiable.

More likely to be designated as TS than a TD. This invest does have tropical storm force winds and i'm sure it could jump off to it immediately (if it stays offshore as you said).

rickybobby wrote:Only 10% of developing.

:uarrow: See the top of this post and it might surprise you.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#137 Postby La Breeze » Sun Oct 01, 2017 3:49 am

joey wrote:
La Breeze wrote:Does this have the ability to develop further if it enters the GOM? If so, how strong and will it affect all of the northern GOM all the way to TX?


gom ? when is this suppose to turn west ? :larrow:

Disturbance 99L is expected to make a quick run across the northern GOM this weekend. National Hurricane Center is giving only a 10% chance of any development. Looks like much needed rainfall for my area of southern LA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#138 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:04 am

Good morning. Well we are absolutely getting deluged by these training bands moving onshore continually due to 99L and the strong northeast to east fetch bringing in the very heavy rain. This has been occurring all during the overnight through right now. We are having strong convergence right here across Jax area.

Here at my location, I have already picked up over 5 inches of rainfall since 11 a.m. yesterday and still pouring. I am certain flash flood warnings are posted in some areas along with coastal flooding as well.

Also, measured a peak wind gust of 38 mph a couple of hours ago in a heavy rain ban. Simply just a day only ducks are enjoying for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#139 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:11 am

The gusty winds along the NE Florida coast are due to the passage of the cold front, not a developing TS. This one is dead.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#140 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:24 am

wxman57 wrote:The gusty winds along the NE Florida coast are due to the passage of the cold front, not a developing TS. This one is dead.


Yeah good morning wxman57. Yeah I'm well aware that 99L is dead. That entity is already well inland moving across North Florida. However, I am emphasizing the strong easterly fetch due to the pressure gradient with the strong high pressure Ridge is really really really bringing in strong convergence across here in northeast Florida, already approaching 6 inches of rain, and still pouring down here at my home.

99L still was a big contributor to this mess we are going through here right now make no mistake about that!
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