ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#141 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:18 am

Hopefully, the front will sag a bit south and push the heavier rain to the south of Jacksonville. I used to think 6 inches was a fair bit of rain - until I recorded 33" with Harvey and 39" total in August. And 33 inches was one of the lower totals with Harvey. Over 60" in some areas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#142 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:31 am

wxman57 wrote:Hopefully, the front will sag a bit south and push the heavier rain to the south of Jacksonville. I used to think 6 inches was a fair bit of rain - until I recorded 33" with Harvey and 39" total in August. And 33 inches was one of the lower totals with Harvey. Over 60" in some areas.


Well obviously you can't compare what I'm going through currently with the event going on here now with the strong easterly fetch with what you went through and all the other people in Houston and South Texas. You do not have to bring that up with me 57. Hardly it's no comparison obviously with This current event. I would never get in any type of discussion about that, so I empathize with everyone out there and certainly I don't need to be reminded of that. I empathize with everyone out there who have suffered and are continually suffering there.


I have had my own bit of suffering here with flooding and some wind damage Irma bought to me here recently as well.Have a good day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#143 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:39 am

I think we've all had enough of this hurricane season. Hope that Caribbean system doesn't develop - and hit Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#144 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:51 am

northjaxpro wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I think we've all had enough of this hurricane season. Hope that Caribbean system doesn't develop - and hit Florida.


Well 57 that I totally 100% agree with you about this! I am so done and ready for this hurricane season to end!![
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#145 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:01 am

wxman57 wrote:I think we've all had enough of this hurricane season. Hope that Caribbean system doesn't develop - and hit Florida.



I think there will be two that develop out of the deep SW Caribbean. One being a major. Historically, the table is set.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#146 Postby NWFL56 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:09 am

wxman57 wrote:I think we've all had enough of this hurricane season. Hope that Caribbean system doesn't develop - and hit Florida.



I hope not too. Right now along the Forgotten Coast, very gusty winds with off and on rain showers.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#147 Postby smithtim » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:14 am

AJC3 wrote:
smithtim wrote: I just walked outside to beach by my home in Ormond by SeA, maybe 10-15 miles south of there, and very strong due East onshore winds. So is that meaning the center had moved south? or is not really LLC with typical spiraling wind direction??

BTW I'd say gale force not quite TS force <snip>


The lower threshold for "Gale Force" and Tropical Storm Force" winds is identical..34KT/39MPH.

One difference between the two is toward which type of cyclone the nomenclature is applied - non-tropical (which includes extratropical, subtropical, post-tropical or hybrid) vs tropical cyclones.

The other difference is that they have a different upper threshold - 47KT/54MPH for a Gale, and 63KT/73MPH for a Tropical Storm.

"Storm Force" winds (again, used for non-tropical cyclones) are 48KT/55MPH to 63KT/73MPH.

And of course, "Hurricane Force" winds, which are used to describe the wind force in both topical and non-tropical cyclones, are 64KT/74MPH or greater.

Carry on...


Well I don't want to argue here, but do want to clarify my statement! Now, from what old Wikipedia says

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gale

says gale starts at 32 while TS starts at 39 which is also the start of strong gale which might be what you were referring. Of course that is just a Wikipedia definition that anyone can edit, or cut paste blah blah...
But, my point is the winds last night were not to that TS level ( i felt winds maybe 30 not 40 ). And, this morning they've really let up probably <20mph???








Also, I've gotta agree + vote with all above, no more storms this year I vote end this season!!! as somebody who physically went and helped in Texas with Harvey recovery then came back to my home on the ocean in Florida + rental properties to deal with Irma I'm just tired sooo tired... no more storms thank you very much : ))
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#148 Postby ronjon » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:43 am

northjaxpro wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I think we've all had enough of this hurricane season. Hope that Caribbean system doesn't develop - and hit Florida.


Well 57 that I totally 100% agree with you about this! I am so done and ready for this hurricane season to end!![


Bring on that first canadian polar cold front. I can't wait for 45 deg dew points! Lets kill this season off for good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#149 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:53 am

ronjon wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:


Well 57 that I totally 100% agree with you about this! I am so done and ready for this hurricane season to end!![


Bring on that first canadian polar cold front. I can't wait for 45 deg dew points! Lets kill this season off for good.


Unfortunately with the NAO positive and PNA way negative over the next couple of weeks we may have to wait until November for that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#150 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:Hopefully, the front will sag a bit south and push the heavier rain to the south of Jacksonville. I used to think 6 inches was a fair bit of rain - until I recorded 33" with Harvey and 39" total in August. And 33 inches was one of the lower totals with Harvey. Over 60" in some areas.


I don't think I've had a lot more than 3.3" all summer and that includes the remnants of Cindy, Harvey and Irma.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#151 Postby Kazmit » Sun Oct 01, 2017 3:17 pm

We haven't seen this in a long time...

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#152 Postby rickybobby » Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:44 pm

The rain and wind has picked up in the last 10 minutes. I would guess 20 mph gusts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#153 Postby flamingosun » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:20 pm

From the NWS office in Melbourne:

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Central Brevard County in Florida...

* Until 945 PM EDT

* At 647 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
that heavy rain was falling over central Brevard County. Rainfall
amounts up to 2 to 3 inches have fallen in some areas already
today, and an additional 2 to 3 inches will be possible. This
heavy rainfall will cause flooding of roadways and poor drainage
areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Merritt Island, Titusville, Rockledge, Cocoa and Cocoa Beach.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#154 Postby flamingosun » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:22 pm

We have been getting copious amounts of rainfall here.
Water in front of our house is over the curb, across the sidewalk, and into the front yard... halfway up the driveway.
TV now says flash flood warning extended until 11:30 pm, and that we could get another 2 - 3 inches.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#155 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:24 pm

flamingosun wrote:We have been getting copious amounts of rainfall here.
Water in front of our house is over the curb, across the sidewalk, and into the front yard... halfway up the driveway.
TV now says flash flood warning extended until 11:30 pm, and that we could get another 2 - 3 inches.


Yikes! Stay safe!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#156 Postby flamingosun » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:47 pm

Thanks. I think we'll be fine ... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#157 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:48 pm

Rain today here in Brevard County, FL has been just insane. Pretty much non-stop since about an hour after I left work at 7 AM. Radar is badly underestimating amounts by about a factor of two (2.50 according to the latest RFC bias estimates). 6-12" has easily fallen in the area, and likely more than that off to our SE. Flooding all over the place. Rain shows no sign of stopping anytime soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#158 Postby flamingosun » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:09 pm

AJC3 wrote:Rain today here in Brevard County, FL has been just insane. Pretty much non-stop since about an hour after I left work at 7 AM. Radar is badly underestimating amounts by about a factor of two (2.50 according to the latest RFC bias estimates). 6-12" has easily fallen in the area, and likely more than that off to our SE. Flooding all over the place. Rain shows no sign of stopping anytime soon.

Yeah, you guys in Melbourne are getting it even worse than we are.
This is from a local report just after 8:30
. . moderate rain combined with amounts up to 8 to 10 inches that have already
fallen from West Melbourne area, as well as Melbourne Beach
southward through Floridana Beach will continue flooding issues.
This heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding, with roadways
becoming impassable and water potentially entering some homes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#159 Postby flamingosun » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:10 pm

Also, there's the whole issue with the area along the St Johns River, that is, I gather, still working through water from Irma

The Flood Warning Continues For
The Saint Johns River Near Cocoa 9w.
* Moderate Flooding is Occurring and Moderate Flooding is Forecast.

*At 17.2 feet, Water enters homes along the Saint Johns River in the
Lake Poinsett area.
*At 16.7 feet, Water covers yards...encroaches on homes and may enter
low lying homes along the Saint Johns River in the Lake Poinsett area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#160 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:17 pm

flamingosun wrote:Also, there's the whole issue with the area along the St Johns River, that is, I gather, still working through water from Irma

The Flood Warning Continues For
The Saint Johns River Near Cocoa 9w.
* Moderate Flooding is Occurring and Moderate Flooding is Forecast.

*At 17.2 feet, Water enters homes along the Saint Johns River in the
Lake Poinsett area.
*At 16.7 feet, Water covers yards...encroaches on homes and may enter
low lying homes along the Saint Johns River in the Lake Poinsett area.



Much of the local canal system will eventually take the rain that fell near the coast today eastward into the ICW (Intracoastal Waterway)/IRL (Indian River Lagoon). However on the western side of the city, it gets channeled by the local drainage system toward Lake Washington and the upper SJR watershed, which will eventually work it's way to the river and then flow north toward the forecast points, all of which are already at at least moderate flood stage (one is still in major flood).

Not good.
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