EPAC: RAMON - Remnant Low

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galaxy401
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EPAC: RAMON - Remnant Low

#1 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:47 pm

Looking more likely our next storm is going to form here. End the drought currently going on in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development over the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward or westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Last edited by galaxy401 on Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E - Discussion

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:38 pm

Convection appears to be well organized so I'd expect this to become our next tropical cyclone...My opinion 50% next 48 hours and 70% next 120 hours...Should be a 45-50 knt tropical storm moving west-northwest away from Mexico.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E - Discussion

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:41 am

A compact low pressure system located over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is producing a small area of thunderstorms near the center. Recent
satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the low has become
much better defined and that a tropical depression is likely
forming. If this recent development trend continues, then
advisories will be initiated on this disturbance by early Wednesday
morning. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the west or
west-northwest for the next few days, resulting in the center of the
low and the strongest winds remaining just offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico. However, only a slight deviation to the right of
the forecast track would result in the stronger winds reaching the
immediate coastal areas of the Mexican state of Oaxaca.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E - Discussion

#4 Postby Nimbus » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:11 am

Oaxaca would see some heavy rains.
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Re: EPAC: RAMON - Tropical Storm

#5 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:37 am

We have ourselves Tropical Storm Ramon.

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 040903
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

The small low pressure area located just south of the coast of
southern Mexico has been producing persistent convection for about
12 hours. Although the convection is confined to the western
portion of the circulation due to strong easterly shear, it has
enough organization for the system to be classify as a tropical
cyclone. Scatterometer data from 0410 UTC revealed a small area
of 35-40 kt winds to the west of the center, so advisories are
being initiated on a 40-kt tropical storm, the seventeenth tropical
storm of the 2017 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Strong
easterly shear is forecast to persist over Ramon during the next
during the next few days, which is likely to prevent strengthening
of the small tropical storm. The ECMWF and GFS weaken the cyclone
over the next day or so, although both models show some interaction
with another disturbance farther west in a couple of days. The NHC
forecast is of low confidence and calls for no change in strength
throughout the forecast period. An alternate scenario is for Ramon
to move closer to the coast of Mexico and dissipate within the next
2-3 days.

Ramon is moving westward or 270/8 kt to the south of a deep layer
ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast to
build westward over northern Mexico during the next few days, which
should cause Ramon to move westward at a slightly faster forward
speed. Later in the period, Ramon is forecast to reach the western
portion of the ridge and turn northwestward. Although most of the
model guidance agrees with this general scenario, there is a fair
amount of spread in the track models. The GFS and HWRF show a
faster westward motion while the ECMWF is much slower. The UKMET
is the outlier by taking Ramon eastward toward central America as a
low pressure area develops over the western Caribbean. Given the
large spread in the guidance, the NHC track forecast shows a slower
westward track and is close to the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means.
The confidence in the track forecast is quite low and interests
along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.3N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.3N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 14.3N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 14.3N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 14.4N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 14.5N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: RAMON - Tropical Storm

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:47 am

Honestly not convinced this makes it to day 3.
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Re: EPAC: RAMON - Tropical Storm

#7 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:36 pm

Are we really sure this is still a TS? I think it got decapitated, easterly shear at both mid and upper levels is relentless.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re: EPAC: RAMON - Tropical Storm

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:08 pm

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 042035
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery, along with Mexican
radar data, indicate that Ramon is becoming less organized. Although
the estimated intensity estimate will be held at 40 kt based on a
ship report that may or may not be correct, weakening seems likely.
Strong easterly shear is forecast by the global models to persist
over Ramon for the next couple of days, and most of these models
show the tropical cyclone dissipating in 24 to 48 hours. Based on
that guidance and the current trends, the official forecast now
calls for the system to dissipate in 48 hours, and this event could
occur sooner than that.

The center, if it still exists, continues to be difficult to locate
but the system appears to be moving a little faster toward the
west-northwest or 285/8 kt. A large mid-level ridge to the north of
Ramon is expected to steer the cyclone on a slightly north of
westward track until it dissipates. The official track forecast is
somewhat faster than the previous one and lies roughly in the middle
of the track model guidance.

The primary concern with this system is locally heavy rains, which
should occur predominately in the immediate coastal zone of southern
Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.2N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.3N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.6N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: RAMON - Tropical Storm

#9 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:39 pm

NDG wrote:Are we really sure this is still a TS? I think it got decapitated, easterly shear at both mid and upper levels is relentless.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif


ASCAT pass last evening indicated a poorly-defined circulation and no TS winds. It looks much worse now. Remnant low, not a TS.
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Re: EPAC: RAMON - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:12 pm

This storm is the biggest joke of the year. It was actually a TS for like half day.
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Re: EPAC: RAMON - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:59 pm

That was fast.

Barely had much of a LLC at any point, really. Messiest most lopsided system you'll see in that basin. There's an odor starting to permeate through the waters... it smells a lot like La Nina in here.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: EPAC: RAMON - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:38 pm

supercane4867 wrote:This storm is the biggest joke of the year. It was actually a TS for like half day.


Jova may disagree lol
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Re: EPAC: RAMON - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:05 am

Ramon's a degenerate

----------------------
Remnants Of Ramon Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...RAMON DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 102.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
---------------------------------

Only five advisories?
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Re: EPAC: RAMON - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:22 am

Did anyone do a Ramon noodle joke yet?
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