ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Shear should remain very low until it approaches the gulf coast. This may become a major if it stays off the central American coast.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

God I pray not for this to happen, for another potential major TC? However, conditions down there unfortunately look rather decent for development. Man, this dreaded hurricane season just can not come to an end soon enough. Heck, we may keep getting storms into December this season the way it has been. For Heavens sake........

[chaser1]

Being just 8 miles or so east of Destin these model runs me not like.

Sorry bro, but I'd practically peg you at a reasonable model range of being close to potential "ground zero". Lets see if future model runs begin trending more eastward as I'd guess (wouldn't be what you'd want to see though unless they swang much more east over time)

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon all,

Like all of you I have been watching this area now an invest for several days. But I must admit it has really gotten it self going since this morning, looking impressive building convection. Now that we have an invest lets see how the models handle the steering.

[Orlando]

Yep, woke up today with bad aches and pains in several joints. I fear that this one will be one to watch carefully. I hope I am wrong.

[Blown Away]

12Z GFS is takes it into New Orleans. NAVGEM takes it until the MS/AL border. West Florida looks like the outlier so far

12z Euro is near Panama City, so I guess the Euro is the E outlier...

[chaser1]

Shear should remain very low until it approaches the gulf coast. This may become a major if it stays off the central American coast.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

God I pray not for this to happen, for another potential major TC? However, conditions down there unfortunately look rather decent for development. Man, this dreaded hurricane season just can not come to an end soon enough. Heck, we may keep getting storms into December this season the way it has been. For Heavens sake........

Right??? I was seriously beginning to think that we'd at least see roughly a week to 10 days where conditions would evolve a bit before "reloading" and climo October actually kick in gear. Yet sure enough in spite of conditions looking pretty hostile over most of the Atlantic for just a few days, here we suddenly go with a very impressive looking depression trying to suddenly develop in the S.W. Carib?? And you know......., here come's the W. Caribbean threat that so many of us had become convinced lately, would be making its appearance. Only thing is, so soon?? Just makes me wonder how strong might THIS storm begin (in light of recent Hurricanes), and if this just might be the first of 2 or 3 systems yet to develop over the fertile Caribbean SST's?

[Shell Mound]

Keep in mind that the orientation and strength of the mid-level ridge over the Eastern Seaboard matters. By day six (00Z/08 Oct), the intensifying ridge axis is oriented strongly from northeast to southwest, with an amplified, deepening longwave trough over the north-central United States. The 00Z ECMWF ensembles show this clearly. This means that 99L, prospective Nate, could move rather far to the west before curving sharply to the northeast as it nears the U.S. Gulf Coast. This track has to do with the orientation and depth of the ridge, which should be quite strong, given the amplitude of the mid-level wavelengths and overall pattern. This matches the seasonal trend, which has produced strong ridging, as seen with Irma. Typically, major hurricanes that strike the Florida peninsula in October require a trough axis over the Southeast, as with Wilma (2005), the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane, and others. This time, the trough axis is much farther northwest, and there is a strong ridge over the East Coast. This means that 99L or Nate is unlikely to make U.S. landfall farther east than St. Marks, and that anywhere between New Orleans and St. Marks is in play. There have been a number of notable Panhandle landfalls in late September and October that have made that sharp northeastward turn, such as Eloise (1975), Storm Five (1894), and others.

[bella_may]

12Z GFS is takes it into New Orleans. NAVGEM takes it until the MS/AL border. West Florida looks like the outlier so far

12z Euro is near Panama City, so I guess the Euro is the E outlier...

Yeah by west Florida I meant the entire Florida panhandle

[Raebie]

The southeast could really use some rain.

[Emmett_Brown]

At this range (5-6 days to landfall depending on the model), the ensemble model runs are probably more useful than individual runs, as some have pointed out. The Euro ensemble has been the most realistic with the short term pattern, so I am very interested to see what it shows shortly...

[chaser1]

This invest is really rapidly organizing. I'm thinking it'll get tagged a T.D. by early tomm. a.m. (I think an argument could be made for suggesting it's a borderline TD now)

[BYG Jacob]

This invest is really rapidly organizing. I'm thinking it'll get tagged a T.D. by early tomm. a.m. (I think an argument could be made for suggesting it's a borderline TD now)

Agreed, it looks like a closed circulation already

[Shell Mound]

Another factor that may not be "good news" is the northward extent of the Gulf Loop Current. A deep, warm eddy nudges almost as far north as Pensacola:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ocean/ohc/images/ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif

Combined with ventilation (jet exit region), heat content, and moisture, this could allow 99L or Nate to intensify over the Gulf as it nears land...

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

Here is your climo... All Oct/Nov storms within 65 miles of 90L's current position... November 2009 Ida is the W outlier past the Yucatan Channel... Interesting...

[chris_fit]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/IPGmPeD.png[/im]

Looking at the 12Z ECMF Ensembles, the stronger the storm, the more East

[SoupBone]

[/img]
Here is your climo... All Oct/Nov storms within 65 miles of 90L's current position... November 2009 Ida is the W outlier past the Yucatan Channel... Interesting...

I think this year is still one of those that climo isn't going to really show us much.

[chaser1]

Keep in mind that the orientation and strength of the mid-level ridge over the Eastern Seaboard matters. By day six (00Z/08 Oct), the intensifying ridge axis is oriented strongly from northeast to southwest, with an amplified, deepening longwave trough over the north-central United States. The 00Z ECMWF ensembles show this clearly. This means that 99L, prospective Nate, could move rather far to the west before curving sharply to the northeast as it nears the U.S. Gulf Coast. This track has to do with the orientation and depth of the ridge, which should be quite strong, given the amplitude of the mid-level wavelengths and overall pattern. This matches the seasonal trend, which has produced strong ridging, as seen with Irma. Typically, major hurricanes that strike the Florida peninsula in October require a trough axis over the Southeast, as with Wilma (2005), the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane, and others. This time, the trough axis is much farther northwest, and there is a strong ridge over the East Coast. This means that 99L or Nate is unlikely to make U.S. landfall farther east than St. Marks, and that anywhere between New Orleans and St. Marks is in play. There have been a number of notable Panhandle landfalls in late September and October that have made that sharp northeastward turn, such as Eloise (1975), Storm Five (1894), and others.

Good analysis and i'm assuming that your projecting this system to track Northwestward over the Yucatan? Too early for me to disagree with any of that however my concerns would be if this system merely grazes Nicaragua and tracks a bit more northerly (as opposed to N.W. in the near to mid term); thus I'd then project that an eventual NNE to N.E. turn might occur farther east and thus pose potential risk to area's along the W. Florida coast as far south as Cedar Key. No model support presently suggests that, but I"m just thinking that final solution as a potential "East Outlier" outcome if a slightly more delayed and more of a Northward motion were to ensue.

[LarryWx]

Keeping in mind the low resolution of ensemble members: practically every of the 50 12Z EPS members has a sub 1000 mb TC (implying TS+) at landfall on the US GOM coast and a good number have sub 992 mb, which would mean H in most cases, especially considering low res. Landfalls mainly 10/7-10.

As it goes inland, many members wallop parts of S AL and S GA and then on into GA/SC/NC

[chaser1]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/IPGmPeD.png[/im]

Looking at the 12Z ECMF Ensembles, the stronger the storm, the more East

Just saw the ECMF ensembles..... ugh! And yeah, I think the potential for a stronger storm would in fact be a further east motion. Present upper level shear over that area will abate in a few days as the Texas anticyclone moves westward and the W. Atlantic anticyclone bridges with whatever building upper anticyclone (potential) Nate develops over itself before then. This far more favorable will amazingly fill in the wake of hostile upper conditions.