ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080157
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 46 20171008
014600 2943N 08759W 8424 01510 //// +174 //// 161060 061 043 004 01
014630 2945N 08759W 8424 01509 0022 +173 //// 158061 061 043 006 01
014700 2947N 08759W 8423 01511 0021 +175 //// 157060 061 043 006 01
014730 2950N 08759W 8426 01508 0023 +173 //// 156063 065 045 005 01
014800 2952N 08759W 8422 01512 0026 +174 //// 156068 069 042 006 05
014830 2954N 08759W 8422 01515 0030 +175 +175 157067 068 041 007 00
014900 2956N 08758W 8426 01512 0031 +174 +174 157067 068 040 007 00
014930 2958N 08758W 8422 01516 0032 +174 +174 157066 067 038 007 00
015000 3000N 08758W 8426 01511 0028 +173 //// 156065 065 038 007 01
015030 3002N 08758W 8419 01521 0029 +174 //// 154067 068 036 006 05
015100 3004N 08758W 8428 01511 0035 +171 +171 154070 070 036 007 03
015130 3006N 08758W 8421 01517 0032 +169 //// 155070 070 036 007 05
015200 3008N 08759W 8417 01526 //// +164 //// 153070 071 /// /// 05
015230 3008N 08801W 8427 01511 0033 +166 //// 155064 068 034 011 05
015300 3008N 08802W 8422 01514 0030 +170 +170 155062 064 035 010 00
015330 3007N 08804W 8422 01514 0029 +173 +173 154061 062 037 009 00
015400 3007N 08806W 8422 01514 0027 +174 +174 153059 060 039 009 00
015430 3006N 08808W 8422 01511 0025 +173 +173 150058 059 041 009 03
015500 3005N 08809W 8424 01506 0023 +173 +173 150057 058 038 007 00
015530 3005N 08811W 8424 01504 0025 +171 +171 150057 058 040 007 00
$

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080206
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 47 20171008
015600 3004N 08813W 8425 01502 0023 +171 +171 148058 061 041 008 00
015630 3004N 08815W 8420 01506 0016 +174 +174 146061 061 041 008 03
015700 3003N 08817W 8424 01500 0017 +173 +173 144059 061 040 008 03
015730 3003N 08818W 8419 01501 0020 +168 +168 145060 061 040 009 00
015800 3002N 08820W 8425 01491 0016 +170 +170 148062 067 040 014 00
015830 3001N 08822W 8420 01495 0005 +177 +177 154065 068 043 008 00
015900 3001N 08824W 8425 01487 0002 +176 +176 153062 063 044 009 03
015930 3000N 08825W 8424 01484 0006 +172 +172 151062 063 043 009 00
020000 3000N 08827W 8420 01484 0003 +170 +170 150064 065 044 018 00
020030 2959N 08829W 8422 01479 9998 +170 +170 151069 070 046 022 00
020100 2959N 08831W 8418 01475 9992 +171 +171 152069 072 048 018 00
020130 2958N 08832W 8429 01460 9985 +171 +171 154074 077 049 017 00
020200 2958N 08834W 8420 01460 9978 +172 +172 151075 077 052 020 00
020230 2957N 08836W 8429 01450 9972 +174 +174 152076 078 054 019 03
020300 2957N 08837W 8423 01453 9967 +176 +176 153074 076 056 013 03
020330 2956N 08839W 8425 01449 9964 +178 +178 156075 078 055 013 03
020400 2955N 08841W 8430 01438 9959 +179 +179 158076 078 053 012 00
020430 2955N 08842W 8427 01443 9955 +181 +181 162071 077 054 010 00
020500 2954N 08844W 8421 01442 9951 +181 +181 161068 069 051 011 03
020530 2954N 08845W 8429 01431 9944 +180 +180 161064 068 055 023 00
$$

[AdamFirst]

Due to intense backlash from local viewership due to interruptions, ABC 33-40 in Birmingham is broadcasting in double box with Michigan State-Michigan in the left box and an active tornado warning in the right box. James Spann, one of the best in the business, isn't happy that they're even conceding to the viewers in the scenario of a warning. This warning is from an outer band from Nate.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 9:05pm CDT:

[tolakram]

Waves breaking higher on this cam.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/aKNCVDnVdsP

Note to self:
Never buy a vehicle from a storm chaser.
He has had that vehicle all but sunk with salt water the last few hours.
Salt water+Vehicle=fail.
And it is not a rental.

You can hear the winds picking up now, this camera may be in the ideal spot for landfall and surge.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 9:15pm CDT:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Potentially off-topic question, but what's the record for the most amount of hurricanes hits to the USA in a single calendar year? Harvey, Irma, Maria, and now Nate.

[bella_may]

Pretty strong winds just came through with a feeder band

[wxman57]

Potentially off-topic question, but what's the record for the most amount of hurricanes hits to the USA in a single calendar year? Harvey, Irma, Maria, and now Nate.

I know that there were 7 in 1886 - 3 in TX, 1 in LA, 3 in Fl.

[Alyono]

Potentially off-topic question, but what's the record for the most amount of hurricanes hits to the USA in a single calendar year? Harvey, Irma, Maria, and now Nate.

6

take that back from the above post, 7 it is

[Javlin]

Waves breaking higher on this cam.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/aKNCVDnVdsP

Note to self:
Never buy a vehicle from a storm chaser.
He has had that vehicle all but sunk with salt water the last few hours.
Salt water+Vehicle=fail.
And it is not a rental.

You can hear the winds picking up now, this camera may be in the ideal spot for landfall and surge.

Watching from the porch little g25-30 came through just trimmed some limbs on a tree 30 minutes ago but not enough some others out further/higher still rubbing from the weight of the water.

[CrazyC83]

Potentially off-topic question, but what's the record for the most amount of hurricanes hits to the USA in a single calendar year? Harvey, Irma, Maria, and now Nate.

1886 had 7 known hurricane hits. 1985, 2004 and 2005 each had 6.

1985 had Bob, Danny, Elena, Gloria, Juan and Kate; 2004 had Alex, Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan and Jeanne; 2005 had Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Ophelia, Rita and Wilma.

[artist]

Undecoded Observation (hide)
URNT15 KNHC 080216
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 48 20171008
020600 2953N 08847W 8421 01428 9937 +180 +180 157066 068 058 030 03
020630 2953N 08849W 8414 01437 9934 +172 //// 155068 072 076 022 05
020700 2952N 08850W 8420 01418 9919 +172 //// 158066 068 054 019 01
020730 2952N 08852W 8417 01412 9908 +184 +184 155062 067 054 017 00
020800 2951N 08854W 8424 01398 9888 +191 +191 149054 058 058 009 00
020830 2951N 08856W 8422 01388 9871 +193 //// 145048 052 056 008 01
020900 2950N 08857W 8423 01380 //// +191 //// 143040 045 052 004 01
020930 2949N 08859W 8427 01365 //// +193 //// 141034 038 045 004 01
021000 2948N 08901W 8417 01373 9831 +212 +208 150017 027 033 001 00
021030 2947N 08902W 8429 01361 9831 +214 +202 164011 012 022 001 00
021100 2947N 08904W 8422 01368 9834 +214 +198 143011 012 016 000 03
021130 2946N 08906W 8424 01366 9836 +209 +200 133008 010 013 001 00
021200 2945N 08907W 8421 01370 9837 +205 +201 122006 008 015 000 00
021230 2944N 08908W 8422 01369 9837 +207 +201 132003 006 015 002 00
021300 2943N 08909W 8423 01368 9835 +211 +202 217001 003 014 001 00
021330 2941N 08910W 8422 01373 9837 +215 +200 314007 012 014 001 03
021400 2940N 08908W 8425 01369 9836 +216 +199 260013 015 /// /// 03
021430 2940N 08906W 8421 01370 9834 +215 +197 223020 022 013 001 00
021500 2940N 08904W 8424 01365 9829 +219 +197 220028 030 014 001 00
021530 2940N 08902W 8425 01366 9835 +211 +197 220030 030 019 001 00
Select All





000
URNT15 KNHC 080226
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 49 20171008
021600 2941N 08900W 8419 01373 9835 +215 +193 213033 035 028 001 00
021630 2941N 08858W 8428 01367 9836 +218 +191 209041 044 038 002 03
021700 2941N 08856W 8421 01376 9847 +205 +191 203052 054 060 002 03
021730 2941N 08854W 8426 01378 9860 +191 //// 202056 059 080 005 05
021800 2941N 08852W 8421 01392 9877 +187 //// 205063 067 064 002 01
021830 2941N 08850W 8425 01397 9885 +186 //// 207070 073 067 005 01
021900 2941N 08848W 8422 01410 9896 +183 //// 201077 079 067 004 05
021930 2941N 08846W 8432 01408 9909 +181 //// 197079 079 062 006 05
022000 2941N 08844W 8417 01429 9921 +180 //// 194078 080 067 007 05
022030 2941N 08842W 8421 01434 9925 +183 //// 193075 077 064 010 05
022100 2941N 08840W 8427 01435 9941 +181 +181 190073 074 052 014 00
022130 2941N 08838W 8427 01440 9957 +177 +177 188073 074 057 037 03
022200 2942N 08836W 8423 01448 9961 +178 +178 185073 074 055 036 00
022230 2942N 08835W 8424 01455 9965 +178 +178 185069 073 056 011 00
022300 2942N 08833W 8420 01461 9972 +176 +176 186068 070 056 010 03
022330 2942N 08831W 8426 01459 9973 +176 +176 186069 071 054 007 00
022400 2942N 08829W 8421 01468 9978 +175 +175 186069 070 051 007 00
022430 2942N 08827W 8425 01469 9986 +173 +173 185070 072 050 008 00
022500 2942N 08825W 8423 01475 9991 +173 +173 185068 069 049 008 00
022530 2942N 08824W 8422 01481 9996 +172 +172 186066 067 049 008 03
$$

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 9:25pm CDT:

[wxman57]

There's been a huge disconnect this year with surface obs and NHC winds especially with Irma in Florida.

What's generally misunderstood with hurricanes is that we define the winds as the maximum sustained winds that are found/measured in each quadrant of the storm, generally out over the ocean. These max winds may cover only a very small area, meaning that they are rarely observed, particularly by land-based instruments where the surface wind is reduced by frictional effects. Average winds throughout a hurricane may be quite a bit lower (30 mph or more) than those "max sustained winds". In fact, observed sustained winds at landfall are often a Saffir-Simpson category (or two) lower than what is reported as the max sustained wind.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Into Eastern Quadrant again:

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 79 knots (90.9 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 80 knots (92.1 mph)

SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind:
Suspect: 80 knots (92.1 mph)
Non-Supsect: 67 knots (77.1 mph)

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 080231
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 08/02:13:10Z
B. 29 deg 42 min N
089 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1290 m
D. 58 kt
E. 061 deg 15 nm
F. 157 deg 78 kt
G. 066 deg 27 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 17 C / 1526 m
J. 22 C / 1530 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. OPEN W
M. C24
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0916A NATE OB 21
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 80 KT 093 / 22 NM 02:20:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 025 / 5 KT
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 2:31Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2017
Storm Name: Nate (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 2:13:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°42'N 89°09'W (29.7N 89.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 49 statute miles (78 km) to the S (185°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,290m (4,232ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 157° at 78kts (From the SSE at ~ 89.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the ENE (66°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west, W
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the E (93°) from the flight level center at 2:20:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 25° at 5kts (From the NNE at 6mph)

[CrazyC83]

There's been a huge disconnect this year with surface obs and NHC winds especially with Irma in Florida.

What's generally misunderstood with hurricanes is that we define the winds as the maximum sustained winds that are found/measured in each quadrant of the storm, generally out over the ocean. These max winds may cover only a very small area, meaning that they are rarely observed, particularly by land-based instruments where the surface wind is reduced by frictional effects. Average winds throughout a hurricane may be quite a bit lower (30 mph or more) than those "max sustained winds". In fact, observed sustained winds at landfall are often a Saffir-Simpson category (or two) lower than what is reported as the max sustained wind.

It's very rare the highest winds in a storm are actually measured. They are usually right on the beach, in a small area no larger than a couple miles wide.

In Irma at the second landfall though there was a sustained wind of 98 kt and gust of 124 kt measured on land though. Another rare example was in Gustav in Cuba, where 135 kt was measured on land (with a gust to 184 kt) - and those were thought to be wrong, but later confirmed as legitimate.

[HeeBGBz]

Strong band coming in. Lots of rain. Is it the eyewall yet? Here in Biloxi by Keesler.