ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

NOAA plane finding 75 kts at flight level with a falling pressure again

[Florabamaman]

I'm in Santa Rosa county Florida. Gas is In short supply here. Most stations only have premium gas at this point. We are watching this one closely...

[bella_may]

NOAA plane finding 75 kts at flight level with a falling pressure again

Wow. Sure it's not another bad read?

[NDG]

It has finally developed a core in the NE quadrant.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon coming in for another pass well away from center find hurricane force winds.. next set should be interesring. Pressurr probably down to 986..

[CrazyC83]

I know the forecast has increased to 75 (really 80 kt since it assumes strengthening up to landfall) but if it goes over the Loop Current, look out.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070302
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 41 20171007
025230 2251N 08507W 8430 01529 0045 +175 +171 153060 061 045 001 03
025300 2250N 08508W 8429 01530 0045 +178 +172 149059 061 041 002 03
025330 2249N 08510W 8430 01528 0043 +177 +171 147062 062 037 002 03
025400 2248N 08511W 8429 01528 0041 +177 +170 145063 064 036 000 00
025430 2247N 08512W 8432 01523 0039 +180 +163 148064 065 038 001 00
025500 2246N 08513W 8428 01526 0038 +179 +155 148066 067 038 002 03
025530 2245N 08514W 8434 01518 0039 +174 +166 151070 071 037 002 03
025600 2244N 08515W 8428 01523 0037 +175 +165 152065 071 043 001 05
025630 2243N 08517W 8429 01519 0044 +174 //// 151062 064 042 004 01
025700 2242N 08518W 8422 01527 0043 +175 //// 154065 071 043 007 05
025730 2242N 08519W 8416 01527 0040 +165 //// 147069 071 043 006 01
025800 2241N 08520W 8432 01510 0043 +165 +165 147072 072 046 009 03
025830 2240N 08522W 8427 01512 0031 +171 //// 149072 074 048 006 01
025900 2239N 08523W 8424 01513 0031 +173 //// 148071 072 042 006 01
025930 2238N 08524W 8435 01500 0033 +171 +171 149072 073 048 008 00
030000 2237N 08525W 8427 01504 0032 +171 +171 148072 075 052 010 00
030030 2236N 08526W 8417 01509 0022 +172 //// 154069 069 056 011 01
030100 2235N 08527W 8428 01494 0013 +177 //// 151070 073 053 007 01
030130 2234N 08529W 8426 01496 0014 +176 //// 153074 078 053 006 01
030200 2233N 08530W 8425 01489 0009 +175 //// 158081 083 051 009 01
$$
;

83 kt FL, 56 kt SFMR.

[CrazyC83]

Most recent AF plane report had 83 kt winds at 850mb. SFMR remains in the mid-50s so perhaps the winds aren't mixing down.

[supercane4867]

11PM advisory from NHC conservatively increases forecast peak to only 75kt. However, the discussion mentioned SHIPS indices are showing a 50/50 chance of a 25-kt increase over
the next 24 hours. And a 25kt increase in strength from this point will bring Nate to major hurricane threshold.

[Aric Dunn]

Easily a hurricane now.. 83k fl..

[AutoPenalti]

Have they mixed down to the surface and is it near the center..?

[CrazyC83]

Easily a hurricane now.. 83k fl..

That translates into about 67 kt at the surface, but SFMR only has 56 so it might not be mixing well.

[hurricaneCW]

Easily a hurricane now.. 83k fl..

Surface winds not quite there yet but those winds should mix down soon. I think a lot of folks are going to be surprised by morning though.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like NHC did shift the landfall point a tad east. Looks like just a hair east of the AL/MS border.

[otowntiger]

11PM advisory from NHC conservatively increases forecast peak to only 75kt. However, the discussion mentioned SHIPS indices are showing a 50/50 chance of a 25-kt increase over
the next 24 hours. And a 25kt increase in strength from this point will bring Nate to major hurricane threshold.

Technically a major is considered 115 mph. The storm is currently at 70mph - add 25 knots (28 mph) just gets it over 100mph, which is a mid cat 2.

[Aric Dunn]

Easily a hurricane now.. 83k fl..

Surface winds not quite there yet but those winds should mix down soon. I think a lot of folks are going to be surprised by morning though.

They wiil do a blend..

[SunnyThoughts]

From the coordinates given in the discussion, looks to be 85 mph just south of Biloxi, miss. Right before landfall

[supercane4867]

11PM advisory from NHC conservatively increases forecast peak to only 75kt. However, the discussion mentioned SHIPS indices are showing a 50/50 chance of a 25-kt increase over
the next 24 hours. And a 25kt increase in strength from this point will bring Nate to major hurricane threshold.

Technically a major is considered 115 mph. The storm is currently at 70mph - add 25 knots (28 mph) just gets it over 100mph, which is a mid cat 2.

Next pass from recon may find windspeeds already higher than advisory intensity.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070312
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 42 20171007
030230 2232N 08531W 8431 01482 0003 +179 //// 160081 082 051 008 01
030300 2232N 08532W 8432 01477 9994 +176 //// 160082 083 056 007 01
030330 2231N 08533W 8429 01478 9991 +173 +172 159084 086 057 010 00
030400 2230N 08534W 8423 01479 9992 +176 +176 157082 086 060 019 00
030430 2229N 08535W 8438 01461 9997 +172 +172 154083 086 066 062 03
030500 2228N 08536W 8419 01475 9992 +171 +171 152085 087 065 066 03
030530 2227N 08537W 8430 01460 9986 +176 +176 152084 089 074 058 03
030600 2226N 08538W 8430 01459 9978 +185 +185 161078 081 071 027 03
030630 2225N 08539W 8420 01464 9970 +191 +191 173064 076 068 014 03
030700 2225N 08540W 8431 01451 9968 +187 //// 177063 064 064 007 05
030730 2224N 08541W 8421 01464 9964 +185 //// 178059 061 062 008 05
030800 2223N 08542W 8432 01450 //// +185 //// 182058 059 054 003 05
030830 2222N 08543W 8436 01449 //// +184 //// 185058 059 047 003 05
030900 2222N 08545W 8429 01449 //// +186 //// 183056 058 047 003 01
030930 2222N 08546W 8436 01439 //// +188 //// 183053 056 047 001 01
031000 2222N 08548W 8428 01441 //// +187 //// 184055 056 043 003 01
031030 2223N 08550W 8429 01437 9927 +192 //// 185056 057 044 002 01
031100 2223N 08551W 8430 01432 9917 +204 +192 188056 057 043 002 03
031130 2223N 08553W 8434 01422 9909 +210 +185 194058 059 041 002 03
031200 2223N 08555W 8428 01422 9902 +212 +179 193059 060 042 002 00
$$
;

89 kt FL, SFMR mostly flagged but 74 kt measured. I think we have enough confidence to call it Hurricane Nate.

[NDG]

89 knots at flight level!