ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro track wallops far SE AL, E FL Panhandle, and SW GA with hurricane conditions. Afterward, strong TS conditions central GA to west-central SC. 10/9 would be the big day for the SE US being affected should this track come close to verifying. But it is still kind of early and we know future model tracks will differ.

[gatorcane]

and often times models want to eject systems out of the deep Caribbean too quickly. If it doesn't move out as fast as models show or the system gets much stronger than models think, could change the track.

[AtlanticWind]

The speed with which this exits the carribean could have big impact on how this tracks, I think the slower it
moves the more east the track shifts.

[tolakram]

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro FL landfall closeup. Panama City Beach @ 971mbs.

[toad strangler]

12z CMC finally drops the lol Atlantic development and latches onto 90L and brings it into MS / AL as a TS

[NDG]

Something to point out is that for 2 runs in a row the Euro shows a strengthening hurricane as it approaches the FL Panhandle, must be because of it tapping into the UL trough giving it a better ventilation.
Could we be talking about yet another major hurricane? Time will tell but the way the season has proven to be I would not doubt it

[AdamFirst]

From the "It's the NAM" file, the NAM has a developing storm over the western tip of Cuba at 84 hours. Chalk it up as another model in the development camp.

[tolakram]

Upper level conditions.

[stormlover2013]

well by the models, slower it moves high pressure builds back towards Florida and the Atlantic and every model shows that, it's going to be about timing and how strong the trough is.

[Alyono]

EC drops the pressure to 971mb just before landfall near Panama City

[tolakram]

[TheStormExpert]

The fact that this is only 5 days away from potential U.S. landfall according to the 12z Euro as possibly yet another hurricane landfall is reason for concern.

[tolakram]

Simulated IR

[NDG]

[tolakram]

The fact that this is only 5 days away from potential U.S. landfall according to the 12z Euro as possibly yet another hurricane landfall is reason for concern.

Like all storms this season, the 5 day or less surprise.

Lots will change in the next few days, not sure we know where it's going yet.

[ronjon]

That's a pretty strong trough coming down out of the central plains. Its going to turn NE - just a matter of how far north it gets before it does.

[stormlover2013]

man o man this is going to be all about timing.....

[Stormcenter]

I guess we'll have few people up late tonight/early tomorrow morning for the next EURO run.