ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Next pic not complete but this is the latest.

yep definately appears to be wraping around.. looks like a deepening phase.. should see a hurricane soon..

[Sanibel]

Good thing it went over Honduras...Won't be long now...


That weird band to the left is probably no name folding in to Nate...


.

[Aric Dunn]

probably is now..

Recon

020400 2135N 08521W 6961 03137 9999 +110 +083 191071 072 043 005 00
020430 2136N 08523W 6950 03146 9999 +105 +087 189071 073 051 015 03
020500 2137N 08525W 6957 03130 9996 +101 +092 193072 075 052 016 03
020530 2138N 08527W 6954 03127 9981 +103 +102 201071 073 052 009 00
020600 2140N 08529W 6963 03112 9965 +113 +098 199069 069 051 005 00
020630 2141N 08531W 6957 03111 9955 +116 +093 202067 070 053 005 00
020700 2141N 08533W 6940 03121 9942 +116 +111 202059 061 055 008 00
020730 2142N 08535W 6956 03102 9929 +123 //// 212057 059 055 010 01
020800 2142N 08537W 6952 03105 9926 +122 //// 218053 054 055 013 01


pressure probably 988 ish

[Blown Away]

I find it hard to believe all the models including the reliable GFS and ECMWF will have greatly underestimated the eventual strength at landfall. Even the CMC is only 998MB and usually it is too intense. They clearly are seeing something that would prevent RI.

that's the danger of using modelology and not meteorology

No offense, but many met's opinions ebb and flow with each model run, specifically the Euro and it's ensembles...

[supercane4867]

These hot towers are going nuts. The Black dot represents -100C cloudtop. RI is increasingly likely by now.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070222
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 37 20171007
021230 2309N 08601W 8430 01515 0027 +180 +171 119054 054 039 002 00
021300 2309N 08600W 8428 01519 0029 +176 +172 119053 054 041 000 05
021330 2309N 08558W 8429 01516 0032 +175 +174 120052 052 040 000 01
021400 2309N 08557W 8433 01513 0033 +174 +174 121051 052 041 000 05
021430 2309N 08556W 8432 01516 0033 +174 +171 123052 053 043 002 01
021500 2310N 08554W 8433 01515 //// +170 //// 120055 056 042 001 05
021530 2310N 08553W 8427 01521 //// +171 //// 118054 055 043 001 01
021600 2310N 08552W 8429 01518 //// +175 //// 116055 056 041 001 05
021630 2310N 08550W 8435 01514 //// +173 //// 117056 057 041 001 05
021700 2310N 08549W 8433 01515 0033 +178 +175 120057 059 042 001 01
021730 2311N 08548W 8429 01521 0033 +178 +172 122059 059 042 002 00
021800 2311N 08546W 8428 01522 //// +171 //// 125058 058 042 002 01
021830 2311N 08545W 8429 01519 //// +176 //// 124057 059 039 002 01
021900 2311N 08543W 8434 01515 //// +177 //// 122053 057 037 002 01
021930 2311N 08542W 8429 01522 0033 +178 +178 127053 053 035 001 01
022000 2312N 08541W 8425 01526 0031 +180 +174 128058 061 036 002 03
022030 2312N 08539W 8434 01514 0033 +180 +174 127060 061 038 002 01
022100 2312N 08538W 8428 01523 0048 +173 //// 121056 062 036 004 05
022130 2312N 08537W 8429 01524 0038 +177 //// 126058 059 039 004 01
022200 2312N 08535W 8428 01524 //// +176 //// 127053 058 041 002 05
$$
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[tolakram]

NOAA and AF latest passes show a slight pressure rise. These fast moving storms will tend to do odd things.

[SunnyThoughts]

Hi everybody, had to work all day today and catching up. Seems farther east than expected. And stronger as well. How strong do you guys think Nate can actually become before landfall? Cat 2 possible in halls opinion?

[Aric Dunn]

center pass image.. looks like some organizing very quickly of that eyewall..

not good
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... Center.kmz

[Sanibel]

That hook feature curling in to the center in Aric's link is what I call a "rip curl"...Often seen in intensifying storms...

[Aric Dunn]

Just as I suspected it got pulled to the right and pressure 988...ish

[tolakram]

Animation of the NOAA center images.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070232
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 38 20171007
022230 2313N 08534W 8434 01520 0035 +178 +176 132055 056 040 002 01
022300 2313N 08532W 8431 01523 0036 +180 +175 132056 057 042 001 03
022330 2313N 08531W 8426 01530 0039 +179 +174 133056 056 043 001 03
022400 2313N 08530W 8433 01522 0041 +180 +173 134055 056 042 001 00
022430 2313N 08528W 8430 01526 0041 +180 +171 135056 056 042 001 00
022500 2314N 08527W 8431 01525 0040 +181 +169 136056 056 042 000 00
022530 2314N 08525W 8432 01525 0040 +184 +166 137056 056 041 001 03
022600 2314N 08524W 8430 01528 0041 +185 +163 137055 055 041 000 00
022630 2314N 08522W 8428 01531 0043 +179 +169 137056 057 040 001 03
022700 2314N 08521W 8430 01528 0044 +175 +170 137055 057 038 002 03
022730 2315N 08519W 8434 01525 0046 +174 +169 135057 058 040 001 03
022800 2315N 08518W 8420 01539 0047 +174 +164 134056 058 040 001 00
022830 2315N 08517W 8435 01526 0046 +176 +167 135058 058 040 001 03
022900 2315N 08515W 8429 01532 //// +169 //// 137058 059 042 001 05
022930 2315N 08514W 8433 01526 0050 +172 +168 136059 060 040 001 05
023000 2316N 08512W 8426 01538 //// +168 //// 139059 062 038 002 05
023030 2316N 08511W 8421 01541 0053 +170 +167 140060 060 040 000 05
023100 2316N 08510W 8436 01528 //// +168 //// 138059 060 040 001 05
023130 2316N 08508W 8433 01531 //// +168 //// 139057 059 040 001 05
023200 2316N 08507W 8431 01534 //// +170 //// 138058 060 040 001 01
$$

[Sanibel]

Explosive black IR burst (not good)...


Probably consolidating CDO right in front of us...



.

[hurricaneCW]

Wow IR is just exploding right now, it reminds of a storm that shall not be named 12 years ago.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070242
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 39 20171007
023230 2317N 08505W 8430 01537 //// +169 //// 137056 057 041 001 01
023300 2317N 08504W 8429 01539 //// +171 //// 138058 059 041 000 01
023330 2317N 08502W 8429 01539 0059 +175 +161 139059 059 041 001 03
023400 2317N 08501W 8429 01540 0060 +175 +161 140059 060 041 001 00
023430 2317N 08500W 8430 01540 0060 +175 +164 140060 060 040 001 03
023500 2318N 08458W 8430 01542 0061 +175 +164 139059 059 039 001 00
023530 2318N 08457W 8429 01544 0062 +175 +155 140058 059 041 001 00
023600 2318N 08455W 8430 01544 0062 +177 +146 142059 060 040 001 03
023630 2318N 08454W 8434 01539 0063 +177 +155 142057 059 040 001 03
023700 2318N 08452W 8429 01548 0066 +175 +165 142057 058 039 001 03
023730 2319N 08451W 8431 01544 0065 +175 +169 141055 057 038 001 00
023800 2319N 08449W 8426 01550 0064 +176 +168 141053 054 038 001 03
023830 2319N 08448W 8432 01546 //// +170 //// 139056 056 034 002 01
023900 2319N 08446W 8433 01544 //// +170 //// 140057 057 036 001 05
023930 2319N 08445W 8425 01553 0067 +173 +172 141057 058 037 001 05
024000 2320N 08444W 8434 01548 0070 +173 +172 143058 058 037 001 03
024030 2319N 08443W 8426 01553 0072 +171 +168 141058 058 031 002 05
024100 2317N 08444W 8438 01541 0070 +171 +167 138056 057 037 001 03
024130 2316N 08446W 8428 01550 0079 +172 //// 138058 060 035 003 01
024200 2315N 08447W 8424 01549 0079 +172 //// 139051 057 033 006 05
$$
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[Ptarmigan]

These hot towers are going nuts. The Black dot represents -100C cloudtop. RI is increasingly likely by now.

It is over where waters are very warm.

[galaxy401]

Any more east wobbles mean a higher chance of going over the Loop Current.

[txwatcher91]

This is why calls earlier today about a sloppy, weak system were premature. The atmosphere is very favorable for RI and as we head into DMAX you’re seeing things organize very quickly now. A hurricane by morning, or sooner, is likely now. Never let your guard down or downplay a storm, especially when models show a very favorable synoptic environment.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070252
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 40 20171007
024230 2314N 08448W 8431 01544 //// +171 //// 142048 049 035 001 01
024300 2313N 08449W 8429 01544 0063 +173 +173 142050 051 036 000 05
024330 2312N 08450W 8429 01542 0060 +174 +171 143053 054 036 001 05
024400 2311N 08452W 8430 01541 0058 +178 +171 142053 054 032 002 03
024430 2310N 08453W 8425 01546 0059 +172 //// 139055 055 034 001 05
024500 2309N 08454W 8433 01538 0059 +173 +170 139056 057 033 001 03
024530 2308N 08455W 8429 01538 0056 +175 +171 140055 056 034 001 03
024600 2307N 08456W 8429 01540 0056 +173 +170 139056 057 035 001 03
024630 2305N 08458W 8440 01529 0055 +176 +169 140057 058 034 002 03
024700 2304N 08459W 8423 01544 0053 +177 +168 139058 058 037 000 03
024730 2303N 08500W 8433 01535 0054 +174 +172 140057 057 035 001 03
024800 2302N 08501W 8429 01537 //// +172 //// 140057 058 036 002 01
024830 2301N 08502W 8428 01536 0052 +175 +172 140059 060 038 000 03
024900 2300N 08503W 8430 01535 0051 +172 //// 141062 062 036 001 01
024930 2258N 08503W 8430 01532 0053 +171 //// 139060 062 036 001 01
025000 2257N 08504W 8436 01527 0051 +174 //// 141062 062 034 002 05
025030 2256N 08505W 8432 01532 0051 +174 //// 143062 063 037 003 01
025100 2255N 08505W 8423 01537 0050 +172 //// 146063 063 040 002 01
025130 2254N 08506W 8433 01528 //// +170 //// 151064 064 042 001 01
025200 2252N 08507W 8428 01532 0050 +171 +168 153063 064 044 001 05
$$
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