ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the size of Nate if increasing fairly rapidly.

[SunnyThoughts]

looks like another wobble to the right.. nearly due north on this pass maybe a nne wobble..

Aric, have always trusted your knowledge on this site. In your opinion, do you think Nate still makes landfall in Louisiana, or parts farther east? Won't hold ya t it, just wondering your opinion based on right now?

[emeraldislenc]

I agree

[PTPatrick]

yeah I mean if TS winds are out to 125 miles from the center that seems bigger than the "tiny" storm we were talking about last night. THat also makes me more concerned for surge in my hometime. The saving grace may well be forward speed.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like another wobble to the right.. nearly due north on this pass maybe a nne wobble..

Aric, have always trusted your knowledge on this site. In your opinion, do you think Nate still makes landfall in Louisiana, or parts farther east? Won't hold ya t it, just wondering your opinion based on right now?

east will be difficult as it is farther north than forecast and the trough is not moving faster.. straight north to nnw to landfall seems likely.

[bella_may]

At this point I think even the people on the west side of the center will feel impacts. I remember roof damage from Ivan and it was a good two hours east of me

[dhweather]

With all the structural issues trying to iron themselves out, who knows where the center ends up. Had it not spent so much time over Honduras and Nicaragua, we probably have a completely different situation here.

[Aric Dunn]

different time of year and set up slightly different.. but it looks like a camille track from this point...no I dont think it is going to be as strong as camille ..

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070442
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 51 20171007
043230 2216N 08558W 8429 01508 0016 +178 +169 212054 055 044 002 00
043300 2218N 08559W 8431 01502 0012 +182 +158 212056 057 042 000 03
043330 2219N 08600W 8433 01496 0005 +187 +161 213056 057 043 000 00
043400 2221N 08601W 8428 01495 0005 +177 +172 211055 056 046 002 00
043430 2223N 08602W 8430 01493 0009 +174 +172 211055 056 044 008 00
043500 2225N 08602W 8431 01484 0004 +172 +168 218061 063 047 009 03
043530 2226N 08603W 8433 01481 9994 +175 +171 218056 059 045 003 01
043600 2228N 08604W 8427 01483 9989 +180 +161 219058 059 048 002 00
043630 2229N 08605W 8429 01476 9986 +175 +171 217055 057 048 001 00
043700 2231N 08606W 8428 01479 //// +173 //// 216051 053 047 003 01
043730 2233N 08607W 8423 01480 9981 +177 +170 215051 052 047 001 05
043800 2234N 08607W 8428 01470 //// +178 //// 215055 056 044 002 01
043830 2236N 08608W 8427 01465 9967 +185 +182 216057 058 043 001 00
043900 2238N 08609W 8425 01462 9955 +193 +177 219059 060 044 002 00
043930 2239N 08610W 8426 01456 9950 +188 +182 217060 062 048 001 00
044000 2241N 08611W 8429 01449 9943 +189 +183 218061 062 049 001 00
044030 2242N 08611W 8429 01443 9935 +191 +187 219062 064 053 002 01
044100 2244N 08612W 8429 01439 //// +189 //// 221059 061 055 002 01
044130 2246N 08613W 8432 01427 //// +185 //// 217052 057 054 001 01
044200 2247N 08614W 8429 01424 //// +188 //// 215049 049 047 002 01
$$
;

[SunnyThoughts]

Mayor of Pensacola on the weather channel now

[tropicwatch]

looks like another wobble to the right.. nearly due north on this pass maybe a nne wobble..

Aric, have always trusted your knowledge on this site. In your opinion, do you think Nate still makes landfall in Louisiana, or parts farther east? Won't hold ya t it, just wondering your opinion based on right now?

east will be difficult as it is farther north than forecast and the trough is not moving faster.. straight north to nnw to landfall seems likely.

Since it is going so fast with there be no Coriolis effect.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

noaa upgrade too hurricane.

[joey]

looks like another wobble to the right.. nearly due north on this pass maybe a nne wobble..

i was so afraid to post that thanks lol

[SouthDadeFish]

looks like another wobble to the right.. nearly due north on this pass maybe a nne wobble..

Recon is finding the center is NNW of last fix. Not seeing the wobble to the right you are mentioning. Curious to hear your thoughts on the wobble.

[PTPatrick]

looks like HWRF is going to end with landfall at MS/AL line 970s and near 90 mph...which given that it is stronger than it initialized definitely gives me concern for a cat 2. that's better for my fam with respect to surge, but not with respect to wind.

[NDG]

Amazing transformation in just 12 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like another wobble to the right.. nearly due north on this pass maybe a nne wobble..

Recon is finding the center is NNW of last fix. Not seeing the wobble to the right you are mentioning. Curious to hear your thoughts on the wobble.

yeah it was there position and brief heading at the end of the last set that looked like that turned north early.

[SunnyThoughts]

looks like HWF is going to end with landfall at MS/AL line 970s and near 90 mph...which given that it is stronger than it initialized definitely gives me concern for a cat 2.

That would be very serious for Mobile bay and surge potential.

[Bamagirl2408]

looks like another wobble to the right.. nearly due north on this pass maybe a nne wobble..

i was so afraid to post that thanks lol

Aric- isnt this currently due south of FWB Destin? Are you still thinking MS AL landfall. Im in Mobile and prepped but wondering if we are not getting east side now.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like another wobble to the right.. nearly due north on this pass maybe a nne wobble..

i was so afraid to post that thanks lol

Aric- isnt this currently due south of FWB Destin? Are you still thinking MS AL landfall. Im in Mobile and prepped but wondering if we are not getting east side now.

the entire area that is warned should be ready.. at this point have to start wobble watching.. lol