ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1941 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:30 am

Image
latest MW
4 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4047
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1942 Postby gboudx » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:31 am

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Hurricane racing toward the US Gulf coast

Preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion across SE LA, MS, AL, and the FL panhandle

Discussion:
Near continuous USAF missions into Nate overnight have revealed a lopsided hurricane with strong winds mainly confined to the eastern side of the circulation. Overall the satellite appearance is not one suggesting rapid intensification and the pressure has only fallen about 4mb since late yesterday evening. There is deep convection near/around the center, but Nate lack a well defined inner core or well defined eyewall which is likely helping to mitigate a more rapid pace of intensification. As Nate arrives on the US Gulf coast this evening the current wind pattern if it holds suggests area west of the center may see very little impact.

Track:
Nate is racing NNW at 22mph on the east side of a building mid level ridge east of FL and an upper level low over the southern Gulf of Mexico and ahead of an approaching deep layer trough over the central US. Nate may turn a little NW for a period today and then back NNW and N this evening. On this track the hurricane will approach and likely make landfall over SE LA (Mississippi River Delta) and then track NNE toward a second landfall on the MS coast. Nate will then accelerate inland over MS/AL Sunday.

Intensity:
Nate is gradually intensifying and while conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are favorable for intensification, the lack of a well defined inner core should preclude significant intensification prior to landfall. With that said, Nate still has 16-18 hours over a very warm Gulf of Mexico and a 90-100mph hurricane at landfall is certainly possible…high end cat 1 or low end cat 2. After landfall, Nate will begin to decay, but the fast forward motion will bring strong winds well inland over much of MS/AL/N GA and TN

Impacts:

Storm Surge:

Major storm surge flooding is likely along coastal MS and AL and into Mobile and Pensacola Bays.

Significant and life threatening storm surge flooding is likely over extreme SE LA and coastal MS/AL/NW FL panhandle. Storm surge values of 5-9 feet above normally dry ground near the coast will be possible over coastal MS and AL including Mobile Bay and the portions of SE LA outside of hurricane risk reduction systems (levees) S and E of the metro New Orleans area. Maximum storm surge values will be found near and just right of the landfall of the center which appears most likely along and east of the SW MS coast or east of the Gulfport, MS area. Water levels currently being forecast will overtop HWY 90 along the MS coast. Given the current forecast track, storm surge values into Lake Pontchratrain are not expected to reach levels of hurricane Issac in 2012.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

Winds:
Winds of 85-95mph will be possible near and east of the center landfall location especially across the lower MS River Delta and then into coastal MS and AL. Given the fair weak wind field on the western side of the system, winds across metro New Orleans may be significantly weaker than those along the MS coast, however any wobble of the center only a slight distance to the west would bring hurricane conditions to New Orleans.

Rainfall:
Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches will be possible along the track of Nate as the fast forward motion will help to reduce overall totals.
0 likes   

stormreader
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1242
Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am

Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#1943 Postby stormreader » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:31 am

tolakram wrote:Looking at the bias chart, it may go east of most of the models.

Image

Gotta like where that Euro triangle falls on that chart.
0 likes   

ava_ati
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 174
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:36 am
Location: Saint Augustine

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1944 Postby ava_ati » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:32 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Some kind of Bermuda Triangle VooDoo Hexed Monkey Shines taking place in the western quad or what?


Not really, the models, pretty much all of them, were forecasting an Eastern asymmetrical storm for the last 4 days. So if the models have been calling for this, not voodoo just math.
0 likes   

iHateDennis
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:01 pm

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1945 Postby iHateDennis » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:38 am

What should i expect out of this in Destin?
0 likes   

User avatar
HedwigTramp
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2008 12:18 pm
Location: Hedwig Village (Houston, Texas)

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1946 Postby HedwigTramp » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:39 am

From the closet buoy weather data (42001), conditions are not that bad. Gust of 23 knots with wave heights 8.5 ft.
I wish the weather stations on the offshore rigs were sending data since some will probably get the eye.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml
0 likes   
Carla (1961), Claudette (1979), Danielle (1980), Alicia (1983), Allison (1989), Jerry (1989), Dean (1995), Allison (1989), Ike (2008), Harvey (2017)....and in the eye of the Fort Bend tornado of 1998.
Disclaimer: If I had ANY forecasting ability, do you think I would have stayed put for so many storms? Y'all get your information from the NWS.

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5792
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#1947 Postby MGC » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:44 am

Mississippi Gulf Coast should be in the RFQ. Convective trend of Nate continues to improve. Could make a run at Cat-2 before landfall. I'm thinking somewhere near the LA/MS boarder as landfall point. We are headed out to Orlando shortly for a well timed vacation to Universal. Good luck to everyone in harms way......MGC
3 likes   

User avatar
MidnightRain
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 110
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2011 8:26 pm
Location: NW Florida

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1948 Postby MidnightRain » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:46 am

iHateDennis wrote:What should i expect out of this in Destin?

Squally weather with TS force gusts likely.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#1949 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:49 am

MGC wrote:Mississippi Gulf Coast should be in the RFQ. Convective trend of Nate continues to improve. Could make a run at Cat-2 before landfall. I'm thinking somewhere near the LA/MS boarder as landfall point. We are headed out to Orlando shortly for a well timed vacation to Universal. Good luck to everyone in harms way......MGC


Have fun here in Orlando!
0 likes   

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6163
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1950 Postby dhweather » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:53 am

Still asymmetrical with vertical alignment issues. That strong southerly flow is effectively shear, which is a good thing, this will come and go quickly on the coast.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1951 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:00 am

Between the last NOAA pass showing north movement and the next AF pass, I think we might have the northward movement starting. The AF pass would help confirm it.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1952 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:01 am

0 likes   

Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1568
Age: 62
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1953 Postby Javlin » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:08 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:
Javlin wrote:The N turn is about to commence
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html


Is it really moving north now??????


Yep Center Fix Coordinates: 25°56'N 88°04'W (25.9333N 88.0667W)

layman's terms .3N and 0W
Last edited by Javlin on Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1954 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:08 am

I think he would get better shots from Mobile.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1955 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:17 am

Incredible burst of Convection this morning, those dewpoints close to 80 deg F are surely feeding into the circulation.


Image
1 likes   

Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1568
Age: 62
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1956 Postby Javlin » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:18 am

dhweather wrote:Still asymmetrical with vertical alignment issues. That strong southerly flow is effectively shear, which is a good thing, this will come and go quickly on the coast.

That's what am praying for short and sweet lessens the damage to structures/trees
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1957 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:22 am

Those stronger flight level winds are starting to make its way down to the surface.

140930 2641N 08752W 6965 03069 9960 +098 +098 142075 080 074 021 03
141000 2640N 08754W 6978 03042 9935 +104 +104 146071 075 072 013 00
141030 2639N 08756W 6969 03039 9895 +115 +100 142071 072 076 007 03
141100 2638N 08757W 6967 03033 9893 +110 +102 141070 071 078 007 00
141130 2637N 08758W 6969 03018 9870 +118 +100 134070 073 082 015 00
141200 2635N 08800W 6964 03016 9865 +115 +103 130062 070 083 018 03
141230 2634N 08801W 6983 02983 9857 +117 +117 135056 065 080 028 03
141300 2633N 08802W 6963 02991 9831 +122 +121 146038 049 067 039 03
2 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2899
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1958 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:22 am

Uncontaminated SFMR of 82 knots.
1 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3205
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1959 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:23 am

I think the AF plane might have missed the center. Showing 980mb east of where they found the wind shift and 983mb at the wind shift. Unless I am missing something.
1 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1709
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#1960 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:24 am

90 MPH now? I could see a cat 2 coming.
1 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests