WPAC: INVEST 95W (TROPICAL DEPRESSION - JMA)

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mrbagyo
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WPAC: INVEST 95W (TROPICAL DEPRESSION - JMA)

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:04 pm

North of Palau & Yap
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Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:02 am

95W INVEST 171005 0600 13.5N 134.6E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:42 am

95W INVEST 171006 0600 13.6N 130.3E WPAC 15 1009

Image

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6N 130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060048Z
METOP-A AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 100023Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF 05-10 KNOT
CYCLONIC FLOW. THE DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:21 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 16N 126E WNW SLOWLY.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W (TROPICAL DEPRESSION - JMA)

#5 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:42 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 130.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. A 070022Z SCATSAT PASS INDICATES A
DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC REMAINS WEAK BUT HAS IMPROVED IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (5-15 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE
LLCC IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG
WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WEAK. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29-30 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER, THE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W (TROPICAL DEPRESSION - JMA)

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:16 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 130.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 125.6E, APPROXIMATELY
323 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION NOW DISASSOCIATED
FROM THE SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD OVER LUZON, NEARLY 220 NM FROM THE
LLCC . A 070022Z SCATSAT PASS INDICATES A DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLCC REMAINS WEAK BUT HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (5-15 KNOTS).
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC IS ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG WHILE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS WEAK. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (29-30 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER, THE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM PERSISTING IN ITS CURRENT LOCATION SLOWLY ADVANCING WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W (TROPICAL DEPRESSION - JMA)

#7 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 08, 2017 3:18 am

The GFS and ECMWF doesn't do much with 95W, but I think the greatest potential for development /intensification is after crossing Luzon...
97W should already be gone or over land by the time 95W enters the South China Sea...

Image
95W INVEST 171008 0600 15.5N 122.9E WPAC 20 1005

00Z HWRF (and even 18Z) is pretty aggressive in developing this over the South China Sea...

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W (TROPICAL DEPRESSION - JMA)

#8 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:22 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 124.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 122.9E, APPROXIMATELY
124 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF LUZON. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITION,
WHICH IS BENEATH THE CONVECTION, IS BASED ON A 080146Z ASCAT PASS.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS,
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC
CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED WESTERLY WINDS. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (10 TO 15 KNOTS). EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
STRONG WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS WEAK. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29 TO 30 CELSIUS). THE CURRENT LIMITING
FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT IS THE PROXIMITY TO LAND WHICH IS PREVENTING
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FROM COMPLETELY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY
LIMITED ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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