ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Ophelia really looks impressive for a system that's over 26C SSTs. Probably the best I've seen yet.

[CrazyC83]

Ophelia really looks impressive for a system that's over 26C SSTs. Probably the best I've seen yet.

A bit more red on there and perhaps Ophelia can become a major.

Notice the wind probability graphics cut off - they don't look beyond 60N latitude or the Greenwich meridian...

[Ptarmigan]

Ophelia really looks impressive for a system that's over 26C SSTs. Probably the best I've seen yet.

https://i.imgur.com/Obask41.gif

https://i.imgur.com/4fLEO1L.gif

Ophelia is a small hurricane. I would not be surprised to see a major hurricane.

Water temperature is not everything. There is also atmospheric conditions.

[CrazyC83]

How does this setup compare to the 1987 storm? (Even though that one was not tropical - or was it? Might be worthy of a reanalysis, at least while well over water)

[Ryxn]

Ophelia seems to be undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle as it's inner eye is contracting...
It's really small now

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[EquusStorm]

Not as much of a record of any sort as an interesting observation, but Ophelia is the eighth hurricane this year with winds of 105mph or greater. This ties 2005, which had seven majors to this year's five, but only one other storm above category one intensity (Irene, at 105)

[Ryxn]

Eye really small at the moment. Honestly, the storm LOOKS pretty intense (like Cat 3 intense). Obviously, looks aren't everything.

EDIT: Eye is growing in size now.

[WeatherGuesser]

The initial motion estimate is a little faster toward the
east-northeast, or 070/7 kt, with Ophelia embedded in the flow ahead
of a large mid-latitude trough pushing east of Atlantic Canada. As
this trough swings eastward over the north Atlantic, Ophelia is
expected to continue accelerating and turn northeastward by day 3
and north-northeastward by day 4. There is high confidence in
the track forecast for the first 48 hours while Ophelia remains a
tropical cyclone. Although there is some model divergence after 48
hours once Ophelia becomes extratropical, the global models remain
relatively tightly clustered through day 4, and they all agree that
Ophelia will track very close to the western shores of the British
Isles on days 3 and 4. As such, very little change was made to the
NHC official forecast compared with the previous advisory. There
is significantly more spread in Ophelia's track by day 5, with the
GFS moving Ophelia over the North Sea while the ECMWF and UKMET
turn the cyclone eastward over Norway. However, NHC's graphical
product suite cannot handle forecast points east of the Prime
Meridian, so the official forecast now cuts off after day 4.

Vertical shear over Ophelia may decrease a bit over the next 24
hours, and the hurricane will remain over marginally warm waters
for the next day or two. Hence, only slight weakening is
anticipated through 48 hours, and Ophelia is forecast to remain a
tropical cyclone during that period. Ophelia is then expected to
merge with an approaching cold front and develop into a warm
seclusion by day 3 to the southwest of Ireland, with baroclinic
forcing likely helping to maintain the cyclone's intensity for
about a day. Some weakening is anticipated after day 3 while
Ophelia moves near the British Isles, but strong winds are becoming
increasingly likely over portions of Ireland and United Kingdom
regardless of the cyclone's exact intensity.

While the NHC track continues to keep the center of Ophelia south
and east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible
throughout the Azores by Saturday night due to an approaching
front. In addition, the wind field of Ophelia will likely expand as
the cyclone begins extratropical transition, and any deviation to
the left of the forecast track could bring stronger winds to the
islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by
the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to
products issued by the Met Office.

[HenkL]

The Portuguese weather service IPMA has issued warnings for the eastern Azores: see here.

[CrazyC83]

From Met Eireann:

Weather Advisory for Ireland
On Monday, an Atlantic storm from the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia will move northwards close to Ireland. There is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding the exact track and evolution of the storm. However, storm force winds, heavy rain and high seas are threatened. Met Eireann will continue to monitor this storm and will issue appropriate warnings as required.

Issued:Friday 13 October 2017 08:00
Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 06:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 06:00

[WeatherGuesser]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

...OPHELIA MAINTAINING STRENGTH WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 31.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

[johngaltfla]

This really has been one hell of a season and Ophelia's strength and projected path is just icing on the cake. Wow, what an impressive storm for that region and this time of year.

[CrazyC83]

This really has been one hell of a season and Ophelia's strength and projected path is just icing on the cake. Wow, what an impressive storm for that region and this time of year.

I wonder if there is still an opportunity for further intensification?

[CrazyC83]

TXNT23 KNES 140010
TCSNTL

A. 17L (OPHELIA)

B. 13/2345Z

C. 32.6N

D. 31.5W

E. ONE/MET-10

F. T4.5/4.5/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON OW EYE EMBEDDED BY DG AND SURROUNDED BY MG.
PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/2032Z 32.3N 32.1W AMSU


...SCHWARTZ

[CrazyC83]

Want hype? The Daily Express (UK tabloid) has published this headline:

 https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/918952833692721152

[leanne_uk]

Trust me I've heard it all when it comes to this idiotic tabloid. They will tell you one week that we are going to have the coldest and most snow filled winter in British history then change their mind and say we are going to have 30 degree heat.
They are an absolute joke when it comes to reporting on weather information and use some of the most unreliable people on the entire planet for forecasting.

Thankfully the majority of people I know to reply upon credible sources for the right information but there are the small selection of people that believe it because it's in the written press.
Both frustrating and comical in equal measures.

I make sure to personally get the word out on the weather when it comes to the UK (despite now living in Germany) and my friends are good enough to ensure papers like this are laughed at and not believed.

You can't help everyone though and there will be some craziness over the coming days for sure

Want hype? The Daily Express (UK tabloid) has published this headline:

 https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/918952833692721152

[abajan]

Notice the wind probability graphics cut off - they don't look beyond 60N latitude or the Greenwich meridian...

So that's why they cut it off like that. Was wondering and meant to ask.

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 952.8mb/102.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +15.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[EquusStorm]

Obviously it's a bit unrepresentative of true intensity given environmental conditions and structure, but an ADT 5.5 near 33*N 30*W is just absolutely absurd. What a season it's been.

[Ryxn]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 952.8mb/102.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +15.1C Cloud Region Temp : -56.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Would that classify it as a major?