ATL: OPHELIA - Extratropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#201 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:11 am

Oh, and something else - as Wilma, the sixth major of 2005, didn't even develop until October 15th, we are ahead of 2005 on major hurricane count for a few days. Of course, 2004 beats both by a while with its 6th, and 2005 ended with seven, but still. :D
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#202 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:14 am

A major hurricane approaching Europe is definitely one of the weirdest scenes on history for the Atlantic.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#203 Postby WAcyclone » Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:40 am

Very unusual place to be for a major hurricane:

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/919200325818507264



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Source: NASA Worldview
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#204 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:04 pm

SSTs around the Azores are near 24C(75F). Ophelia strengthened to major hurricane last night while moving over 25C waters and she's still maintaining CAT3 intensity on even cooler SSTs. This is unbelievable.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#205 Postby Macrocane » Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:10 pm

What a remarkable season! Even small systems that didn' seem to achieve too much at first sight like Lee and Ophelia have given us surprises. (Let's forget the first 5 storms :lol: )
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#206 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:18 pm

Macrocane wrote:What a remarkable season! Even small systems that didn' seem to achieve too much at first sight like Lee and Ophelia have given us surprises. (Let's forget the first 5 storms :lol: )


Even those (except Cindy) overachieved merely by existing.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#207 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Still a major at 18z. Even more symmetrical than 6 hours ago.

As of 18:00 UTC Oct 14, 2017:

Location: 35.3°N 25.1°W
Maximum Winds: 100 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 960 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM

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Ophelia is now showing up in the Western European sector of Eumetsat site.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#208 Postby tatertawt24 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:31 pm

This really is like the second coming of 2005 where nearly every storm makes a name for itself by doing something weird and unexpected. Ophelia is reminding me most of Vince.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#209 Postby Cryomaniac » Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:34 pm

This reminds me a lot of Grace in 2009, given that it might impact the UK. It's been unseasonably warm here for the last couple of days, and is forecast to be over 70 degrees on Monday. I'll be interested if I get any strong winds here, like I did with Grace.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#210 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:06 pm

Could this maybe make a run at category 4 status?

I'd go with 110 kt given its earlier numbers and more symmetrical appearance now.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#211 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:18 pm

tatertawt24 wrote:This really is like the second coming of 2005 where nearly every storm makes a name for itself by doing something weird and unexpected. Ophelia is reminding me most of Vince.


If this were going to Portugal and Spain, it would be nearly certain to make landfall as a borderline cat 1/2 hurricane, not extratropical
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#212 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:20 pm

If the watch/warning program was used in Europe, we'd be at the point where a Hurricane Watch would be needed for parts of the British Isles.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#213 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If the watch/warning program was used in Europe, we'd be at the point where a Hurricane Watch would be needed for parts of the British Isles.


Think Portugal and France use regular watches and warnings since they're issued for the French Caribbean as well as for the Azores
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#214 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:25 pm

Ophelia will be only much stronger than Vince and Grace on her way to Europe. Looks like we may need to have some storm chasers on the ground in Ireland...is this real life? :lol:
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#215 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:32 pm

Alyono wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If the watch/warning program was used in Europe, we'd be at the point where a Hurricane Watch would be needed for parts of the British Isles.


Think Portugal and France use regular watches and warnings since they're issued for the French Caribbean as well as for the Azores


I know the British Caribbean uses them as well, but they are not run directly by the UK but rather by their individual territorial governments. That said, I'm not convinced it will be fully extratropical before at least strong winds reach the shores.

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If they were issued and looking at the 48 hour threat areas, I'd go with:

Hurricane Watch
* Killala to Yougall (Ireland), matching the Red Alert area

Tropical Storm Watch
* Yougall to Bettystown (Ireland), matching the Orange Alert area that will fall within the 48 hour threat - will need to extend north in time
* Plymouth to Gooseham (England)
* Isles of Scilly
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#216 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:55 pm

Kept at 100kt for the new advisory, but probably was stronger than that in between. Honestly I don't even know what to say about the surreal satellite shots from today. It's like the image of a significant hurricane was pasted onto the end of a trough way off somewhere where something that intense shouldn't be. :eek:
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#217 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:02 pm

120kt wind gusts forecasted for the potential sting jet...ouch

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#218 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:15 pm

I assume we've never seen a MH this far north & east in the Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#219 Postby Michele B » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:28 pm

That's what I was wondering....is this normal?!?!?

Seems weird. Like too far east and/or south to be in the Gulf Stream, where the water is very warm.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#220 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:29 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:I assume we've never seen a MH this far north & east in the Atlantic.


yes. There has never been one this far north and east.

This has a chance of making ireland Tropical.
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