WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

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WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:45 pm

98WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-130N-1365E
Image


Image
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:50 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:58 am

It's a large system...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:25 am

Models have this passing through Northern Luzon or through the Luzon Strait this coming Thursday or Friday...
It may gain some organization/strength during the next couple of days, but a quicker rate of organization/strengthening is possible once it enters the South China Sea...


Image


Another disturbance appears to be forming between Luzon and 130E, but it should dissipate around Luzon within the next 48hrs or so, due to the presence of 98W...

Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:42 am

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:53 pm

TXPQ28 KNES 101514
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 10/1430Z

C. 14.4N

D. 136.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A CENTER LOCATED NEAR A COLD OVERCAST MEASURING OVER 1.5DEG. DT=2.0
MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LLCC
POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:12 pm

EURO peaks this at 988 mb south of Hainan before dissipating while GFS has a stronger one, 959 mb, as it rakes Hainan.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:23 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.6N 135.8E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. A 101746Z
GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION MOSTLY LOCATED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO
GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT INVEST 98W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS LUZON WHILE SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING OR POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF TIGHT TURNING WITHIN THE TROUGH (INVEST 90W) OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:51 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 135.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY
800 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED
AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. A 101746Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY LOCATED AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT INVEST
98W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS LUZON WHILE SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING OR POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER AREA OF TIGHT
TURNING WITHIN THE TROUGH (INVEST 90W) OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#9 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:39 am

Image
98W INVEST 171011 0600 16.5N 132.6E WPAC 20 1003

Now a Tropical Depression by JMA, and they're now forecasting it to become a Tropical Storm while approaching Northern Luzon or the Luzon Strait...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:15 am

TXPQ28 KNES 110907
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 11/0830Z

C. 16.8N

D. 131.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .25 CURVED BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W (Tropical Depression - JMA)

#11 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:02 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 112000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3N 128.7E TO 18.7N 121.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9N 127.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9N
129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 423NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL TURNING. A 111144Z OSCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST AREA 90W, AND POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 170NM
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF INVEST 98W WITH A DISTINCT TROUGH FEATURE
PROTRUDING TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF A DEFINED LLCC AT THE
SURFACE, 850MB VORTICITY APPEARS TO BE WELL DEVELOPED AND
INCREASING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS COUPLED WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CYCLOGENESIS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING
ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE
SYSTEM INTERACTS AND MERGES WITH INVEST AREA 90W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122000Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W (Tropical Depression - JMA)

#12 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:04 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W (Tropical Depression - JMA)

#13 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:19 pm

EURO and GFS brings Typhoon Khanun to Hainan Island.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (was Invest 98W)

#14 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:52 am

This invest seems to completely dominated the 90W and now it's got designation of 24W by JTWC and Odette by PAGASA.
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I am an Indonesian who likes TC's alot recently. May i join in the discussion? Also i am big FAN of FORCE THIRTEEN! :D

But thanks to it please beware of my judgement if i am crusading these names to retirement (Like Harvey, Haitang, etc.). That could be incredibly offensive and please remove my posts if it's offensive as i said before. Ugh... :double:

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (was Invest 98W)

#15 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:58 am

24W TWENTYFOUR 171012 0000 17.6N 124.9E WPAC 25 1004

We have 24W.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (was Invest 98W)

#16 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:38 am

Image

A cat 1 for Hainan.

WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
262NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 120745Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES 25 TO 35 KNOT
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW (ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE EAST), WARM
SST (29-30C), AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0
(30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 24W IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 24W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR. TD 24W WILL REMAIN A BROAD
CIRCULATION AS IT TRANSITS OVER LUZON. UPON ENTERING THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AFTER TAU 18 THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE. BY TAU 24
THE INTENSITY WILL INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER
FROM LUZON AND OUT OVER WARM OCEAN WATER WITH SSTS OF 29-30 CELSIUS.
BY TAU 48 A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE STR WILL ALLOW FOR TD 24W TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE INCREASING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN HAINAN ISLAND NEAR TAU
78, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. TD 24W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL AGAIN IN NORTHERN VIETNAM AFTER TAU 96 AND WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (was Invest 98W)

#17 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:38 am

We now have Tropical Storm "Khanun"...
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1720.html

Image
Image

JTWC also upgrades it into a Tropical Storm...
24W TWENTYFOUR 171012 1200 17.8N 123.3E WPAC 35 996
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#18 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:25 am

Looks like its ramping up now.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#19 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:46 am

WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH CONTINUES
TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. A 121030Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 34 KNOTS AND A CONTINUALLY
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THIS INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW (ENHANCED BY
THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE EAST), WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS), AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TS 24W IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR. TS 24W WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS
IT TRANSITS OVER LUZON. UPON ENTERING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU
12 THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE. BY TAU 24 THE INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER FROM LUZON AND
OUT OVER WARM OCEAN WATER WITH SSTS OF 29-30 CELSIUS. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET MODEL. BY TAU 42 A SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE STR WILL ALLOW FOR TS 24W TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
INCREASING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN HAINAN ISLAND JUST AFTER
TAU 72, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. TS 24W WILL
MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN IN NORTHERN VIETNAM AFTER TAU 96 AND WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAU 120 WHERE SEVERAL MODELS
SHOW A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE STR LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
CHINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND
KEEP THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#20 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:17 am

Image
damn, I can't get the fixed images of the radar echoes from this website ( layed out on Google maps)
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