WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#21 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:13 pm

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#22 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:44 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF ROTATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING SHOWING STEADY IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS
BASED ON A 121736Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM
PAGASA. THESE DATA SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
BANDS ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED OVER LUZON. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A PREVIOUS 121039Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 34 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE SYSTEM CENTER, YET MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE IN-
PHASE WESTWARD SYSTEM TRACK. CURRENTLY TS 24W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE WITH
MODEST IMPROVEMENT AS IT TRACKS OVER LUZON AND EMERGES OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UNOBSTRUCTED BY LAND TS 24W IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY BEYOND TAU 12 REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS HINDERING OUTFLOW ON
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE POSSIBILITY
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE TAIWAN AND LUZON STRAITS IS ANTICIPATED, GREATLY
EXTENDING THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TS 24W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER HAINAN NEAR TAU 72 AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
TS 24W WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN JUST
AFTER TAU 96 OVER VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND
AND DISSIPATE FURTHER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN BOTH SPEED AND THE GENERAL WESTERN MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN TRACKER
POSITIONS BEGINNING AROUND TAU 12 AS TS 24W FURTHER CONSOLIDATES IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND THIS UNCERTAINTY IS CARRIED FORWARD IN
LATER TAUS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#23 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:25 pm

Image

Image


Code: Select all

FXXT01 ADRM 121500
   IDY26500

   Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin RSMC

   ACCESS_TC TC tracking for model run: 20171012 1200 UTC 

   Cyc Name    Date   Time   Lat   Long   C.Pres   Max Wind(kts)

   KHANUN        20171012 1200    17.5  123.8    997.1     33.5
   KHANUN        20171012 1800    18.0  122.9    993.5     36.9
   KHANUN        20171013 0000    18.8  122.1    993.8     43.4
   KHANUN        20171013 0600    18.9  120.0    989.8     49.5
   KHANUN        20171013 1200    17.8  119.0    988.3     46.2
   KHANUN        20171013 1800    18.1  118.8    986.2     47.0
   KHANUN        20171014 0000    18.3  118.4    986.4     48.6
   KHANUN        20171014 0600    18.9  118.0    984.5     47.6
   KHANUN        20171014 1200    19.1  117.1    985.5     49.2
   KHANUN        20171014 1800    19.6  116.2    984.3     53.0
   KHANUN        20171015 0000    19.7  115.2    983.7     58.2
   KHANUN        20171015 0600    19.9  114.1    981.6     61.4
   KHANUN        20171015 1200    20.1  112.8    985.1     57.0



Note: wind speed is max wind at 10m in kts

 This information and associated graphic is available at :

    http://www.bom.gov.au/reguser/by_user/bomw0170/tc_track1.shtml
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#24 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:49 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AREA OF BANDING CONVECTION SHOWING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON A 122019Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM PAGASA. THESE DATA SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN BANDS ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING
INTO A DETERIORATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED OVER
LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM RJTD.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER, YET MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE IN-PHASE WESTWARD SYSTEM TRACK.
CURRENTLY TS 24W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND CONSOLIDATE FURTHER. UNOBSTRUCTED
BY LAND TS 24W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS HINDERING OUTFLOW ON
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE POSSIBILITY
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE TAIWAN AND LUZON STRAITS IS ANTICIPATED, GREATLY
EXTENDING THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TS 24W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER HAINAN NEAR TAU 72 AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
AROUND TAU 72 SHIFTING THE TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF
TONKIN MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN JUST AFTER TAU 96 OVER VIETNAM. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE FURTHER. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BOTH SPEED AND THE GENERAL
WESTERN MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER THERE IS A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACKER POSITIONS BEGINNING AROUND TAU 12 AS TS 24W
FURTHER CONSOLIDATES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
CARRIED FORWARD IN LATER TAUS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#25 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:16 am

Image
Image
TS 1720 (Khanun)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 13 October 2017

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 13 October>

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°20' (17.3°)
E118°50' (118.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area W 390 km (210 NM)
E 280 km (150 NM)
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#26 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:25 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#27 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:03 am

Image

Up to 45 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE LUZON STRAIT CONTINUES TO WRAP
INTO THE LLCC. A 130656Z GMI 37GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE IN OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH THE LLCC
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
45 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BOTH REMAIN EXCELLENT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (29-30 CELSIUS). TS 24W IS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII REMAIN
EXTENSIVE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW.
B. TS 24W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR. THE STR WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, A
SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE STR WILL ALLOW THE TRACK OF TS 24W TO BECOME
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TS 24W WILL
ALSO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITH FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. BY TAU 36 THE
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE TO 75 KNOTS AS TS 24W APPROACHES HAINAN
ISLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE IS NOW A GREATER SPREAD
IN THE MODEL TRACK FORECASTS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 24W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND WILL
MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR TAU 84 AND WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL AFTER TAU 96 WHERE SEVERAL MODELS
ERRONEOUSLY SHOW THE REMNANTS OF TS 24W TURNING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD.
THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD TO KEEP THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD. OVERALL
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#28 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:04 am

TPPN10 PGTW 130945

A. TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN)

B. 13/0900Z

C. 17.13N

D. 118.71E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .60 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.0 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 3.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/0502Z 17.63N 119.78E ATMS
13/0656Z 17.28N 119.52E GPMI
13/0657Z 17.40N 119.72E SSMI
13/0732Z 17.13N 119.37E SSMS


BERMEA

TXPQ28 KNES 130921
TCSWNP

A. 24W (KHANUN)

B. 13/0830Z

C. 17.6N

D. 118.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF 3.0. MET=2.5
AND PT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#29 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:09 am

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 065650.cms

Image
TOKYO: Eleven Indian crew members were missing on Friday after their cargo ship sank in the Pacific off the Philippines as a typhoon(TS Khanun) churned in the region, Japan's coastguard said.

The 33,205-tonne Emerald Star with 26 Indian nationals on board sent a distress signal early Friday as the Hong Kong-registered vessel was sailing some 280 kilometres (174 miles) east of the northern tip of the Philippines, said a statement from the Japanese coastguard, which received the distress signal.

Three other vessels sailing near the area rescued 15 crew members but 11 others were still missing, a Japanese coastguard spokesman said, adding that the cargo ship has sunk.

"We have dispatched two patrol boats and three planes to the site but a typhoon has made a rescue difficult," the spokesman added.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#30 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:18 am

EURO has Hainan Island and GFS has Southern Guangdong in sight.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#31 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:04 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CLOUD COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131346Z
AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD AND WEAK LLCC, WITH
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS OF
THE SYSTEM. COINCIDENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED THE LLCC QUITE
CLEARLY, WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
QUADRANTS, PART OF AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45
KNOTS) FROM PGTW, RTJD AND KNES, THE SCATTEROMETER DATA, AN
AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (52 KNOTS) AND A
SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND WEAK WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (29-30 CELSIUS). TS 24W IS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE DEEP STR, AND
TOWARD A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. AFTER TAU 48, AN EXTENSION OF
THE STR WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN TO THE NORTH OF TS 24W, DRIVING THE
SYSTEM ON TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS HAINAN ISLAND. TS 24W
WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS AT TAU 36.
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED TO A SINGLE, FAIRLY WEAK, WESTWARD CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU
36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AS VWS
INCREASES AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASES AS A BAND OF STRONG
200 MB WINDS APPROACHES THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST, CONSTRICTING
OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AND THE JTWC TRACK
LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 24W WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS
HAINAN AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR TAU 100.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF HAINAN, AND REEMERGE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL IN VIETNAM, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS DEPICTING A TURN TO THE SOUTH AFTER
TAU 72 WERE CONSIDERED AS ERRONEOUS. NEARLY ALL MODELS HOWEVER ARE
NOW DEPICTING THIS SOUTHERN TURN ONCE THE SYSTEM REEMERGES INTO THE
GULF OF TONKIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TAKES THIS INTO ACCOUNT
AND SHOWS THIS TURN SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE COAST OF VIETNAM.
OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#32 Postby sikkar » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:59 pm

Just insane cold cloud tops, below -90
Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#33 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:38 pm

Oh boy, I agree, cloudtops cant get any colder than that.
This TC is very wet, we've been experiencing torrential rain since yesterday afternoon and we're very far from that insane blob (fortunately, flooding wont be an issue in our location - elev: > or < 2000ft asl)

Image

Image

convection is a little displaced SW from the center
Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#34 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:51 pm

From RMN Iloilo via WeatherPhilippines:

Developing Story: Cebu Pacific Air Flight 5J 461 originated from Manila bound for Iloilo overshot the runway at Iloilo International Airport at the height of blinding rain. Reports say, a wing section was severed when the aircraft plowed into the rice paddies ahead. The incident happened at around 11:15PM during bad weather.

Passengers on board the flight was estimated to be 160; all were evacuated safely and accounted for. No one was seriously hurt and as of posting, torrential rains continue to hamper the retrieval operation as CAAP officials are still assessing the situation as to what caused the mishap.

If you happen to know of anyone on this flight, please contact the Cebu Pacific Air management for more details on their status.

With reports from RMN Iloilo.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#35 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:24 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 OCT 2017 Time : 234000 UTC
Lat : 17:12:12 N Lon : 118:03:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 987.0mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -77.3C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.1 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#36 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:53 pm

Those are some insane cloud tops in this storm! Certainly sheared though.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#37 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:47 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING SYSTEM, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT
WAS PRESENT A FEW HOURS AGO RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. WARMER AND
SHALLOWER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO A CLOUD-COVERED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT MOST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS CONFINED FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 132251Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED BUT BROAD LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY AT 50
KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN T3.0 AND T3.5
(45-55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, RTJD AND KNES AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
AUTOMATED DVORAK AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND A SINGLE, WEAK WESTWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE AREA (29-30
CELSIUS). TS 24W IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A THE DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W HAS TURNED TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, BUT HAS SLOWED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS IT BEGAN ITS TURN. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE DEEP STR, AND
TOWARD A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL
RIDGE IN TO THE NORTH OF TS 24W, LEADING TO A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER
TAU 36 AND THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HAINAN. AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AFTER INTERACTION WITH HAINAN AND BECOMES
SHALLOW, THE REMNANTS WILL START TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS THROUGH TAU
72. TS 24W WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING OVER THE
WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS AT TAU 36.
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED TO A SINGLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BEYOND TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AS UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE DECREASES AS A BAND OF STRONG 200 MB WINDS APPROACHES THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST, FURTHER RESTRICTING UPPER-LEVEL EXHAUST.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE JTWC TRACK LIES JUST
SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 24W WILL REEMERGE IN THE GULF OF
TONKIN BY TAU 72 AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM, AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW, BEFORE MAKING A
SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST NEAR TAU 90. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TONKIN DUE TO STRONG VWS AND RESTRICTED OUTFLOW. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL IN VIETNAM, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, WITH SOME INCREASED
SPREAD BEYOND TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE MODELS LOSE THE
SIGNATURE. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#38 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:38 am

Image
hot tower firing up near the eye feature that formed earlier - Khanun now looks primed for an upgrade to Typhoon status. IMO, it has a legit shot at major status.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#39 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:44 am

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Re: WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#40 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:52 am

Baguio City and some other parts of Benguet experienced heavy rainfall and occasionally strong gusts from Khanun earlier today...
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