WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#41 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:58 am

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#42 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:49 am

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#43 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:45 am

WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INITIALLY SHOWED THAT A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE DEVELOPED BUT HAS
FILLED TOWARD THE END OF THE LOOP. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM IS NOW MORE
CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH HAVE
DEEPENED AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF
THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 24W IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
A STRONG WESTWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-
PHASE WITH THE VWS. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30
CELSIUS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, A SECONDARY EXTENSION OF THE STR BUILDING IN
OVER SOUTH CHINA WILL ASSUME AND STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. AFTER
TAU 48, THE NEW STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD AND DEFLECT THE CYCLONE
SOUTHWESTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO A PEAK OF 70
KNOTS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, ENTRAINMENT OF LOW LEVEL COOL DRY
AIR FROM THE NORTH, THEN INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND OF HAINAN,
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, TS 24W WILL BE REDUCED
TO 40 KNOTS AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF TONKIN.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS KHANUN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN
VIETNAM THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE DUE TO STRONG VWS AND INTERACTION
WITH RUGGED TERRAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, WITH SOME
INCREASED SPREAD BEYOND TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE MODELS
LOSE THE VORTEX. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#44 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:09 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH A BROAD AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING
IN THE RECENT IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE VISIBLE IN 141726Z GPM
37GHZ AND 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
70 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN LIGHT OF THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN MICROWAVE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T4.3 (72
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AS TY 24W HAS MOVED
MORE NORTHERLY THAN EXPECTED, IT HAS MOVED INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A STRONG WESTWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND ITS
STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE VWS VECTOR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, BUT REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE AT 28-29 DEG CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED NEAR TAIWAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA WILL BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE
IT ONTO A WESTWARD COURSE TOWARDS SOUTHERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF ZHANJIANG AROUND TAU 30 AND
REEMERGE INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN BY TAU 36. DUE TO THE WEAKENED
STATE OF THE SYSTEM AFTER LANDFALL, THE TRACK WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW, LEADING TO A TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL VIETNAM THROUGH TAU 72. TY 24W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS, AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEREAFTER BEGIN A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND BEFORE LANDFALL AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS,
DECREASING SSTS AND DECREASED EXHAUST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL MASS
CONVERGENCE ALOFT. INTERACTION WITH THE LAND AFTER TAU 24 WILL
INCREASE THE RATE OF WEAKENING, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REEMERGE IN THE GULF OF TONKIN AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. THE HIGH
SSTS IN THE GULF OF TONKIN WILL BE OFFSET BY HIGH VWS AND WEAK TO
NO EXHAUST, LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING BEFORE MAKING A SECOND
LANDFALL IN CENTRAL VIETNAM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. NEAR TAU 72, TY KHANUN WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL
VIETNAM THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH RUGGED
TERRAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST, WITH SOME INCREASED MODEL SPREAD
BEYOND TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND THE MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX.
OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#45 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:47 pm

Eye feature has been on and off
Image

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#46 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:01 pm

Probably around 70 knots based on the satellite and microwave.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#47 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:13 pm

JTWC Best tracks.
24W KHANUN 171014 1800 19.4N 116.5E WPAC 70 976

Also.
Image


ADT sat estimation
Still intensifying atm hpa dropping.
2017OCT14 204000 4.4 975.6 74.6 4.4 4.4 4.0 MW ON OFF OFF -85.55 -85.31 UNIFRM N/A 22.4 19.62 -115.58 SPRL HIM-8 36.9
2017OCT14 211000 4.5 973.9 77.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 MW ON OFF OFF -82.71 -85.85 UNIFRM N/A 42.1 19.67 -115.28 SPRL HIM-8 37.2
2017OCT14 214000 4.5 973.8 77.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 MW ON OFF OFF -84.03 -85.64 UNIFRM N/A 42.1 19.72 -115.20 SPRL HIM-8 37.3
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#48 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:03 pm

The core of Khanun is now coming into the range of Shanwei radar. Clear eye feature now evident but eyewall is still a bit weak
Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#49 Postby shah83 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:45 pm

Any sign of heavy rains around Hanzhou Bay?
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON KHANUN

#50 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:47 pm

It's now officially a Typhoon


TY 1720 (Khanun)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 15 October 2017
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 15 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°05' (20.1°)
E114°50' (114.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 560 km (300 NM)
S 440 km (240 NM)
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON KHANUN

#51 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:56 pm

Rainbands affecting Hainan island and coastal areas of Guangdong...

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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON KHANUN

#52 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:46 pm

Image
Image

Yangjiang Radar

Image
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON KHANUN

#53 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:21 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON KHANUN

#54 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:26 am

TPPN10 PGTW 150628

A. TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN)

B. 15/0600Z

C. 20.62N

D. 113.24E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN
W YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/0155Z 20.13N 114.45E MMHS


LEMBKE

TXPQ28 KNES 150303
TCSWNP

A. 24W (KHANUN)

B. 15/0230Z

C. 20.3N

D. 114.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED IN W FOR DT=5.0. MET=4.5 PT=5.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT DUE TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CENTER POSITION BASED ON 15/0155Z
AMSU PASS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/2237Z 19.8N 115.0E SSMIS
15/0155Z 20.2N 114.3E AMSU


...VELASCO
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON KHANUN

#55 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:36 am

Looks like it's overestimated by Dvorak. Microwave imagery does not support a category 2 intensity.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON KHANUN

#56 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:09 am

Up to 90 knots Cat 2.

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A MORE COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN AROUND A SUNKEN BUT VISIBLE
CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF CLOSELY CLUSTERED MULTI-
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE OF
THE CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 24W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS, FOR NOW, MOSTLY OFFSET BY THE ACCELERATED
STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE VWS DIRECTION, RESULTING IN A
LOWER RELATIVE SHEAR VALUE. OUTFLOW IS MARGINAL WITH JUST AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 30 DEG
CELSIUS ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPEHRY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY KHANUN WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR BUILDS AND REORIENTS, CROSSING THE CHINESE LEIZHOU PENINSULA INTO
THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE TURNING TOWARD CENTRAL VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM
MAY HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY AS IT WILL NOW BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
THE CHINESE LANDMASS. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE STORM MOTION BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID DECAY. BY
TAU 48, TY 24W WILL BE REDUCED TO A 35-KNOT TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF HUE, VIETNAM, THEN DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
OVER ROUGH TERRAIN BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP
TO TAU 24 THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE FIRST DAY OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTERWARD.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON KHANUN

#57 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:17 pm

JMA and JTWC are holding intensity at 70 knots and 65 knots respectively. Possibly too high.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON KHANUN

#58 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:06 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM EAST OF HANOI,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING DISORGANIZED AND
BEING SHEARED WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUBSEQUENTLY BROUGHT DOWN TO 65
KNOTS, WHICH MAY STILL BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
ZHANJIANG AND SURROUNDING AREAS INDICATE WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE, SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION OF STRONGER WINDS
OVER OPEN WATER AHEAD OF THE LLCC WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS) IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING MOST OF THE WEAKENING, ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION
AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF TONKIN. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. ASSUMING THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF TY 24W SURVIVES THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST,
WITH LANDFALL IN VIETNAM AROUND TAU 36. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER ITS
INTENSITY. INSTEAD, IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SECOND
LANDFALL. GIVEN THE DECOUPLING OF THE CIRCULATION, THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE THAT THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE MOVING MORE WESTWARD THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, LEADING TO AN EARLIER LANDFALL TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE INTENSITY CHALLENGE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Oct 15, 2017 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON KHANUN

#59 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:07 pm

NotoSans wrote:JMA and JTWC are holding intensity at 70 knots and 65 knots respectively. Possibly too high.


You think? I've seen typhoons in satellite imagery before. This is no typhoon. There's not much left of it.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#60 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:10 pm

Khanun's current state is making it hard for the LLCC to be located... Without closer inspection/analysis, one may think it's centered over SW China instead of over the Gulf of Tonkin...

Image
Image
TS 1720 (Khanun)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 16 October 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 16 October>

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°30' (20.5°)
E109°30' (109.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
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