WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#61 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:46 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM EAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TS 24W HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED, WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMOVED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS. EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE SYSTEM (30-35 KNOTS) AS
THE LLCC BEGINS TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. FULLY DECOUPLED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEVOID OF
DEEP CONVECTION, THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND THE DEEPENING SURFACE MONSOON TROUGH. GIVEN THE HOSTILE UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPOSED BY THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TS 24W
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING, WITH DISSIPATION OVER WATER NOW
EXPECTED BY TAU 24, PRIOR TO A SECOND LANDFALL IN VIETNAM. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND DISSIPATION
SCENARIO.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#62 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:17 am

It collapsed when it passed south of the Pearl river Estuary.

Macau's radar clearly showed that deteriorated eyewall structure when it passed to the south.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION KHANUN

#63 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:54 am

Image
TD
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 16 October 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 16 October>

Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N20°00' (20.0°)
E109°00' (109.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa


JTWC:
24W KHANUN 171016 0600 20.3N 109.3E WPAC 30 1000
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM KHANUN

#64 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:46 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 017
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 20.3N 109.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 109.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.1N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.8N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 109.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AND UNRAVELED AFTER BEING
DECOUPLED FROM ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE MSI LOOP ALSO SHOWS
STRATOCUMULUS LINES WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE NORTHWEST, AN
INDICATION OF COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOW LEVELS. VIRTUALLY ALL
OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED AFTER BEING
SHEARED WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE MAIN FACTOR FOR ITS RAPID DECAY. DUE TO THE
HARSH ENVIRONMENT, TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN 12
HOURS IN THE GULF OF TONKIN. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 8 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 25W (LAN)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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