WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

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mrbagyo
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WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:52 am

91WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-76N-1485E.


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Last edited by mrbagyo on Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:04 am

I like its position on the east end of the monsoon trough, although it's struggling with the tropical upper tropospheric trough right now. I don't know if it'll remain in its current form, but 91W appears like it'll at least contribute to the possible strong system guidance has been alluding to next week.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#3 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:30 pm

woops, where is it?

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:08 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#5 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:34 am

Don't be fooled by it's appearance though. It could regain convection sometime and becoming a typhoon.
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I am an Indonesian who likes TC's alot recently. May i join in the discussion? Also i am big FAN of FORCE THIRTEEN! :D

But thanks to it please beware of my judgement if i am crusading these names to retirement (Like Harvey, Haitang, etc.). That could be incredibly offensive and please remove my posts if it's offensive as i said before. Ugh... :double:

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:42 am

91W INVEST 171012 0600 6.5N 147.4E WPAC 15 1008

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:19 am

The models are pretty robust with this.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:20 am

979mb peak from EURO.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:27 am

00Z GFS peaked this at 876 mb and barely missing Taiwan to the east but latest 06Z is weaker, 894 mb, and makes a beeline for Southern Taiwan.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:12 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:44 pm

Rough weather in store for Western Micronesia.

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 130316
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1239 PM ChST Fri Oct 13 2017

PMZ161-171-132300-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1239 PM ChST Fri Oct 13 2017

...INCLEMENT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA THIS WEEKEND...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK NEAR
8N144E. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM EASTERN YAP STATE AND WESTERN CHUUK STATE TO
THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS YAP STATE AND PARTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THIS WEEKEND
AND RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR YAP STATE.

CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES IN YAP STATE
AND PALAU THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITY OR INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL...BE AWARE OF CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED
ON THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/.

$$

SIMPSON
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#12 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:46 am

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Ukmet T-7.2 on this storm.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:20 am

The difference between EURO and GFS is remarkable. EURO has this making landfall over Japan near Tokyo while GFS has a Cat 5 for Luzon.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:05 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0N
142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 131142Z SCATSAT IMAGE SHOWS A SHARP INVERTED TROUGH,
HOWEVER, A 131202Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS A DEVELOPING LLCC
WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
SST VALUES ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 30 TO 31C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND DECREASING VWS OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:49 pm

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WTPN21 PGTW 140230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 140.0E TO 11.0N 134.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 139.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. A 132112Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AS WELL AS CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING
CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150230Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#16 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:06 am

I think the TCFA is a little premature at this point, not that it changes anything regarding the development prospects.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#17 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:46 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#18 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:00 am

The system will move generally W-WNW during the next 3 days or so, then take a more poleward(NNW/N/NNE) track afterwards... The track beyond the next 3 days starts to become increasingly uncertain, however...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:52 am

The very conservative JMA brings *LAN* down to 947 mb!

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:07 am

EURO peaks this at 939 mb and passes it very close to Tokyo.
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