WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1166
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#161 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:38 pm

Intensity debate aside, this could be a major threat for Tokyo. Probably won't be that strong when it makes landfall but this is a huge storm which means a very serious storm surge...
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13354
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#162 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:40 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

shah83
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 73
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:55 pm

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#163 Postby shah83 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:52 pm

Guys, is this not a rerun of Typhoon Ida from 1956? Pressure and winds not as strong, but still...
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2026
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#164 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 2:01 pm

CIMSS ADT supports an intensity of 132kt 926mb. Recon found 135kt 925mb.

What was that about satellite estimates being poor again?
1 likes   

Noctilucent
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 2:37 pm

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#165 Postby Noctilucent » Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:58 pm

Josh Morgerman of iCyclone is going to Japan!


https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/921779687994548226
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12993
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#166 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:07 pm

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM EAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 38NM ROUND EYE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY POLEWARD, WHICH
IS TAPPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER JAPAN. A 211825Z
NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE AND STRONG
CONVERGENT FLOW. AS A RESULT, THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE EXTENSIVE
AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS
RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.5 (127
KNOTS) TO T7.0 (140 KNOTS). THE STY ESTIMATE WAS VALIDATED YESTERDAY
BY AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA FROM JAPAN WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AND
MINIMUM SLP IN THE EYEWALL SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 125 TO 130
KNOTS. STY 25W IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THIS FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED PRECISELY BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 211237Z ASCAT
IMAGE (SUPPORTS UNUSUALLY SMALL 50- AND 64-KNOT WIND RADII) AS WELL
AS RYUKYU ISLAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
B. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EYE WOBBLE,
HOWEVER, STY 25W IS TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STABLE AND REMARKABLY TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 60-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OVER THE KANTO PLAIN
REGION NEAR TAU 24. STY LAN SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 12
WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12 ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS WELL
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. STY 25W IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM, AND PROXIMITY OF COLD-SURGE WINDS AND GRADIENT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER JAPAN.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12993
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#167 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:10 pm

Image
1 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4639
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#168 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:13 pm

1 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4639
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#169 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 22, 2017 3:48 am

0 likes   

NotoSans
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 572
Age: 17
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#170 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 22, 2017 3:59 am

http://www.nhk.or.jp/shutoken-news/2017 ... 02202.html

Third recon mission conducted by Japan reports central pressure of 923 hPa at around 10 JST (01 UTC).
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the RSMC and NWS products.

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4639
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#171 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 22, 2017 4:10 am

0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12993
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#172 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:44 am

Image

WDPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM AS THE ONCE LARGE EYE FEATURE IS
NOW OBSCURED BY DENSE OVERCAST LAYER WHILE EXHIBITING FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER, A 220441Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE SHOWS A
SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION STILL MOSTLY INTACT WITH ONLY
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE ERODING AWAY, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS
AND IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T7.0
(102 TO 140 KNOTS) AND A 220542Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 120 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POINT SOURCE OVER TY 25W NOW DISRUPTED AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES. CURRENTLY TY 25W IS ACCELERATING
POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, WIND RADII ARE NOW ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC REGION FURTHER DETERIORATING.
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL VERY HIGH AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM BY TAU 24. THE 34, 50, AND 64 KNOT WIND RADII ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS IT MAKES THE TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT, THUS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#173 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:51 am

euro6208 wrote:Image

3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, WIND RADII ARE NOW ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT DATA.

Here's that ASCAT pass... wow!

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12993
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#174 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:04 am

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4639
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#175 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:16 am

0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17434
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#176 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:39 am

Looks like Lan has weakened quickly over the past 12 hours. Dvorak down to 5.0 early this morning, but looks more like 4.0 now (or lower). JMA's current intensity of 85kts (10-min) may be a bit generous.
0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#177 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:52 am

0 likes   

User avatar
Imran_doomhaMwx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio City, Benguet, Philippines

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#178 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:07 am

Inner structure continues to deteriorate...

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1413
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#179 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:08 am

Automated bouys near Saipan and Guam recorded these wave heights earlier.
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4639
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: WPAC: LAN - Typhoon

#180 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 22, 2017 12:00 pm

0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests