ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

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drezee
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ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#1 Postby drezee » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:00 am

Classified this AM:

Invest 92L
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 13, 2017:

Location: 17.4°N 55.3°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM


Should head ots..
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#2 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:56 am

Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#3 Postby Gustywind » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:17 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.

OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#4 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:19 am

Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.

OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.


rain and some breezy conditions. :)
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#5 Postby Gustywind » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:32 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Not before the vort/wave axis moves through the NE islands. 00z Euro mildely develops it just north of PR before recurving. needs to be watched..


that and also there is still a vort/lobe/circ more south in the elongated wave axis. the shear is much less there.

OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.


rain and some breezy conditions. :)

ok thanks a lot! :wink: So not much action from this one?!
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#6 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:46 am

Naked swirl headed for the islands...Shows what difference a month can make...


Here's me in Irma's eyewall:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5bdBR78YY8
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#7 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:19 pm

think season may be toast but lets see.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#8 Postby msbee » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:35 pm

Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:OK thanks ARIC. So what are you latest thougts for us in the Leewards? We should wait for what especially? A strong twave or not, or more than a TW? With what effects? Thanks.


rain and some breezy conditions. :)

ok thanks a lot! :wink: So not much action from this one?!


I hope not much action from this one. We still have people living with no roofs over their heads.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#9 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:57 pm

msbee wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
rain and some breezy conditions. :)

ok thanks a lot! :wink: So not much action from this one?!


I hope not much action from this one. We still have people living with no roofs over their heads.


well its not going to be a hurricane or anything close.. but already producing TS winds on the east side. and depending on track would bring that over the islands. like it will head over the islands tomorrow. IF convection build a little closer to the center then a TD or TS is possible tomorrow too.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#10 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:14 pm

convection beginning to build around the center. shear is still moderate.. but that not stopped many many systems before... it is also farther south a more west than the models are showing so slightly less shear at the moment.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#11 Postby msbee » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
msbee wrote:
Gustywind wrote:ok thanks a lot! :wink: So not much action from this one?!


I hope not much action from this one. We still have people living with no roofs over their heads.


well its not going to be a hurricane or anything close.. but already producing TS winds on the east side. and depending on track would bring that over the islands. like it will head over the islands tomorrow. IF convection build a little closer to the center then a TD or TS is possible tomorrow too.

Hoping it will go North of St Maarten. even tropical storm force winds would send tarps flying and expose many of our residents to the elements once again.
We are keeping watch. Thanks for updating, Aric!
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#12 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:23 am

It's just a sheared mess of a tropical wave this morning. About zero chance of any development prior to passing the NE Caribbean. The only development potential appears to be next Tuesday as it merges with a strong cold front well north of the Caribbean. It would be a frontal low at that point. The threat to the NE Caribbean islands is for increasing rain chances over the next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#13 Postby msbee » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:11 am

wxman57 wrote:It's just a sheared mess of a tropical wave this morning. About zero chance of any development prior to passing the NE Caribbean. The only development potential appears to be next Tuesday as it merges with a strong cold front well north of the Caribbean. It would be a frontal low at that point. The threat to the NE Caribbean islands is for increasing rain chances over the next couple of days.


Thank you wxman57. I thought it looked pretty raggedy this morning.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:59 pm

Maintains a LLC as it tracks north of the islands. Gfs hints at development after 60 hours as it is heading out to sea so I'd watch it.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#15 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:23 pm

Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#16 Postby msbee » Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:46 pm

abajan wrote:Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.


SXM is currently experiencing a lot of wind. thunder and lightning too, but not much rain. People feel nervous, considering they just went through Irma.
Some tarps flying off homes I hear.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#17 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:04 pm

msbee wrote:
abajan wrote:Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.


SXM is currently experiencing a lot of wind. thunder and lightning too, but not much rain. People feel nervous, considering they just went through Irma.
Some tarps flying off homes I hear.

Wow. Sorry to hear that. :cry:

We got lots of rain and a bit of thunder this morning, in association with a combination of 92L and the ITCZ, which caused flooding in many parts of the island. We've been under a flood warning since 6 AM. Expecting more tonight and into tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#18 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:09 pm

Still no circulation. It's a sheared tropical wave. The only chance of development comes Tuesday when it merges with the cold front and becomes a frontal low.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#19 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:36 am

Not much to it today. Wave looks a bit weaker than yesterday. Surface pressures relatively high in the region. Producing some thunderstorms over the NE Caribbean. Still looks like it merges with the cold front before developing.

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#20 Postby msbee » Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:04 am

abajan wrote:
msbee wrote:
abajan wrote:Blowup of convection over Barbuda for the last couple hours.


SXM is currently experiencing a lot of wind. thunder and lightning too, but not much rain. People feel nervous, considering they just went through Irma.
Some tarps flying off homes I hear.

Wow. Sorry to hear that. :cry:

We got lots of rain and a bit of thunder this morning, in association with a combination of 92L and the ITCZ, which caused flooding in many parts of the island. We've been under a flood warning since 6 AM. Expecting more tonight and into tomorrow.


Stay dry, Abajan. Light rain here today, just enough to make those living under tarps miserable.
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