ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#21 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:51 am

Not sure why the NHC has odds so high on this one. Just a sheared tropical wave. Shear isn't even expected to decrease that much, and model support is limited. I'd say that development chances are closer to 20% rather than 50%.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#22 Postby Gustywind » Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:55 pm

msbee wrote:
abajan wrote:
msbee wrote:
SXM is currently experiencing a lot of wind. thunder and lightning too, but not much rain. People feel nervous, considering they just went through Irma.
Some tarps flying off homes I hear.

Wow. Sorry to hear that. :cry:

We got lots of rain and a bit of thunder this morning, in association with a combination of 92L and the ITCZ, which caused flooding in many parts of the island. We've been under a flood warning since 6 AM. Expecting more tonight and into tomorrow.


Stay dry, Abajan. Light rain here today, just enough to make those living under tarps miserable.

Let's all stay dry in spite od this fool weather:! Guadeloupe experienced tstorms and rains too, but surely nothing comparable to Barbuda in the SXM Baraba! Anyway, both islands Guadeloupe and the Nothern Leewards stay in YELLOW alert for a risk of strong showers and tsorms till 5 PM.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf
Barbara looks like a strong cell had brang 50 mm in 1 hour at ST BARTH yesterday night!
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#23 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:42 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Not sure why the NHC has odds so high on this one. Just a sheared tropical wave. Shear isn't even expected to decrease that much, and model support is limited. I'd say that development chances are closer to 20% rather than 50%.


I think that a low is very likely to develop. However, the question is if that low will be a frontal low and not a tropical or subtropical low. It looks like more of a frontal low.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#24 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:41 am

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the Turks and
Caicos Islands have increased overnight. Although the system is
producing wind gusts to near tropical-storm force, satellite
imagery suggests that it lacks a well-defined center. Upper-level
winds are forecast to remain marginally conducive for some
additional development during the next day or so while the system
moves generally northward. Conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development by Wednesday when the
disturbance merges with a frontal system over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#25 Postby msbee » Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:22 am

Puerto Rico does not need the moisture from this either.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
449 AM AST Mon Oct 16 2017

.Synopsis...
The first pulse of moisture with the tropical wave has moved
north of Hispaniola. A second will cross through today bringing
another round of showers and thunderstorms. Moisture and
instability will continue through Wednesday, taper off on Thursday
and reach a minimum on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...
The plume of moisture that brought flooding on Sunday will
continue in southeast flow between high pressure over the eastern
Atlantic Ocean and the low pressure in the southern Caribbean.
Although high pressure will dominate the pattern aloft, flow is
light and generally divergent so that upper levels will support
continued convection. Most of the models support convection on
both the southeast coast and slopes of Puerto Rico and the
northwest section, as is typical in southeast flow. This pattern
is also expected to affect the upstream islands as well with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Conditions remain favorable
for convection Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with the Galvez-
Davison Index reporting even more favorable values Tuesday and
then Wednesday, mainly over the eastern two thirds of the island.
The southeast flow and very deep continuous moisture favors
flooding and mudslides today through Wednesday over much of Puerto
Rico with a focus on the southeastern third of the island. A
Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico today through
Wednesday evening.


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
The ECMWF and the GFS disagree on the exact timing of the arrival
of the drier air either Wednesday night or early Thursday evening
respectively, but do agree that it will be strong and dramatic.
Moisture will end no sooner than Wednesday night, but it is safe
to say that some convection will continue in lingering moisture on
Thursday in any case. Although widespread flooding is not
expected Thursday, local urban and small stream flooding cannot be
ruled out and the effects and danger will be enhanced by the
previous 3 days of heavy rains across the island. Friday will be a
transition to drier weather.

Precipitable water in the GFS drops to as little as 0.88 inches
on Saturday afternoon and this should be enough to generate only
isolated thunderstorms. Then the base of a 10 thousand foot band
of relative humidity of less than 10 percent is forecast to begin
just below the 700 mb level that should eliminate all but the most
robust convective parcels. Showers would also be short-lived.
Also northwest flow with anti-cyclonic curvature will persist
Friday through Sunday to enhance subsidence and often convergent
flow. The GFS does bring in several shots of divergence however
and therefore cannot rule out local thunderstorms in the west
during the afternoons and scattered light showers on the east
coast during the mornings. This point is confirmed by 850 mb
moisture above 80 percent over the weekend and into next week, in
spite of the weak moisture at 700 mb during the period.

&&
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#26 Postby msbee » Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:35 am

From Crown Weather:

Crown Weather Plus Weather Discussion

Issued: Monday, October 16, 2017 9:20 am EDT/8:20 am CDT

Invest 92-L Has The Potential To Become A Tropical Storm As It Moves Near Bermuda Late Tonight & Tuesday; Western Caribbean Tropical Development Is Possible Next Week

"Invest 92-L Located About 175 Miles To The North-Northeast Of The Turks & Caicos Islands: An area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 92-L, is gradually becoming better organized as it moves to the northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Indications are that Invest 92-L is producing tropical storm force winds and there is the possibility that this system could be designated a tropical storm when it impacts Bermuda late tonight and on Tuesday. The environmental conditions aren't particularly favorable for development as wind shear values of 20-25 knots are impacting Invest 92-L and this probably will impede any sort of development from it.
Even if Invest 92-L does not develop into a tropical storm, it is likely to bring tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall to the island of Bermuda starting tonight and continuing through the day on Tuesday.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#27 Postby Kazmit » Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:49 am

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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Discussion

#28 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:50 am

Well, the NHC has stopped watching it, so I’d expect the invest to be deactivated soon.
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