EPAC: INVEST 91E

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Yellow Evan
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EPAC: INVEST 91E

#1 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 13, 2017 6:51 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131746
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 13 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The surface circulation of a nearly stationary low pressure system
centered about 750 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better defined over the past few
hours, however, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Some additional development of this system is
possible through the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form while it begins moving toward the west-northwest at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Sciencerocks
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#2 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:30 pm

Looks very good.
1. LLC
2. Convection developing over it

Most models develop it into a tropical storm.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:21 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
centered about 650 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression will likely form within the next day or
two while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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