WPAC: SAOLA

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mrbagyo
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WPAC: SAOLA

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:09 am

Here comes one of Lan's toy

93WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-126N-1474E.

Image
Last edited by mrbagyo on Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:58 am, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:53 am

Image

93W INVEST 171016 0600 12.7N 146.8E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:14 am

JMA, NAVGEM, CMC, and GFS shows this feature for the longest time. The GFS is the strongest (Strong TS). It's far enough east of the Marianas.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:50 am

Tropical Storm Lan was located southwest of the Marianas. It will
move slowly northwest away from the region, and its direct
impacts will be minimal. However, that doesn`t mean it is going to
be a quiet week. The guidance, to various extents still disagrees
over the next few days before coming into better agreement later
in the week. The models also want to develop a disturbance to the
east of the Marianas, currently near 13N148E before this system
ultimately merges with the tropical storm later in the week. In
the interim, it will likely bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is at
least some model agreement on this, though less so on the timing.
strong easterly flow to the north will bring wind gusts to 30 mph
tonight for Saipan and Tinian before decreasing on Tuesday.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#5 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:48 pm

Will either head west and also dissipate due to Lan's presence, or track eastward then poleward while consolidating into a weak Tropical Cyclone over open waters...

Image
93W INVEST 171017 0000 13.2N 145.0E WPAC 15 1004
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:49 am

Image

93W INVEST 171017 0600 14.4N 144.0E WPAC 15 1010

Center located northwest of Guam. We are absolutely getting drenched. Loving this weather.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:00 am

The EURO develops and peaks it at 999 mb east of Guam and moving north parallel to the Marianas as it interacts with Lan.

NAVGEM had a TS passing north of Guam.

Most likely we will be seeing some more circulation develop out from this robust monsoon trough.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:08 am

GFS at 987 mb. Almost similiar to EURO's track.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:12 pm

Peak wind gust of 51 knots was recorded on Saipan early morning. Guam saw rainfall amounts of 3.36 and 4.30 inch at WFO and Sinajana.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:15 pm

.Marianas Synopsis...
Radar shows what may be a small circulation centered about 50 miles
west of Saipan, but it could also be the eastern end of a sharp
trough extending in from the west. There is no indication of a
closed circulation seen on IR satellite imagery. But a burst of
strong convection over and just west of Tinian and Saipan produced
wind gusts to 51 kt at Saipan airport between 3 and 4 AM and gusts
up to 38 kt on Tinian around the same time. That convection has now
greatly weakened and stratified, and the only strong convection on
satellite is 50-100 miles west of the islands.

&&

.Discussion...
Winds were updated out to about 48 hours to account for more wind
than previously forecast. This brings breezy conditions today to
Tinian and Saipan, which should diminish slightly tonight. The rest
of the forecast is the same as before, with scattered showers
lasting through Thursday night and isolated thunderstorms through
the next week. Forecast confidence is fairly low, as there is
uncertainty surrounding the possible circulation west of Saipan.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show a small but tight circulation developing
this afternoon east of Saipan, then moving away to the east to about
152E, then curving northwest and passing well north of Saipan over
the weekend--a highly unusual pattern.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:21 pm

MEDIUM.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.1N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM WEST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE GUAM RADAR SHOWS CURVED RAIN BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOPING LLCC. A 171733Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH WEAKLY-DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM TINIAN SHOW PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH TS 25W'S OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND WARM SST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS AS VWS RELAXES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:53 pm

Image

WTPN22 PGTW 182030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 15.3N 149.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 145.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY
670 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W)
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 11 NM WEST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY
OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 181536Z 89GHZ
AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH, WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KT), WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FUELING DEEP
CONVECTION. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE, IN THE 30-31C RANGE. GLOBAL MODEL
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SOME MODELS PREDICT AN EASTWARD TRACK, TURNING NORTHWARD THEN
RECURVING, WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. OTHERS PREDICT
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND LITTLE TO NO CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192030Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:19 pm

This morning, JTWC Invest 93W is a major source of uncertainty in
the forecast. The GFS still takes it out to the east to about 152E,
then takes it northwestward, to north of Agrihan, on Sunday. But
the ECMWF now takes it ESE to near 13N152E, then brings it back
WNW through the Marianas between Tinian and Rota on Sunday. This
seems unlikely, but we will keep 93W under close watch. To further
increase uncertainty, satellite seems to show 93W moving southward
along about 147.5E, but it also appears to be weakening with warming
cloud tops. And now, JTWC has just issued a Tropical Cyclone
Formation Alert on this system. Stay tuned for further developments!
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:15 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 148.8E, APPROXIMATELY
245 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DECREASE IN
CONVECTION CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM AND
NOT A LOSS OF LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 93W UNDER A TONGUE OF LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH HIGH VWS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE MAINTAINING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM PHASE. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE, IN
THE 30-31C RANGE. GLOBAL MODEL TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS
GREATLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MODELS PREDICT AN EASTWARD
TRACK, TURNING NORTHWARD THEN RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. OTHERS PREDICT SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND
LITTLE TO NO CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:53 am

EURO brings the remnants north of Saipan. The models are not happy with it anymore.

GFS also much much weaker. Only 999 mb passing east of the islands.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:29 pm

Image

WDPN33 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM NORTH OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191704Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS WITH EVIDENCE OF FORMATIVE
BANDING IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0
TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 191138Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING 25 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TD 27W IS LACKING AN
ORGANIZED OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HOWEVER, IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A TUTT CELL. THUS THE LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED
BY THE TUTT CELL. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W.
B. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR THROUGH TAU 24, PEAKING AT 35 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 24, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, THE RESULT OF THE SYSTEM?S PROXIMITY TO TY 25W. AFTER TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT INTERACTS WITH
TYPHOON 25W, EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY TY 25W BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATER TAUS FOR
THE TRACK DIRECTION, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL PERIOD OF QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION CAUSES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:31 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:44 pm

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 192128
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272017
800 AM ChST Fri Oct 20 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...12.2N 151.7E

About 450 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 455 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 455 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 475 miles east of Guam
About 325 miles north of Chuuk

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...southeast...135 degrees at 3 mph.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM ChST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 27W
was located near latitude 12.2 degrees North and longitude 151.7
degrees East...drifting southeast at 3 mph. Tropical Depression 27W
is expected to loop slowly around to a west-northwest heading by
tonight...then increase its forward speed as it heads northwest on
Saturday. This track takes it to within 85 miles northeast of Saipan
Sunday morning as a minimal tropical storm.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. Tropical Depression 27W is
forecast to become a minimal 40 mph tropical storm early Saturday,
then maintain that intensity as it passes Saipan. Once past Saipan,
Tropical Depression 27W is expected to weaken as it moves away to
the north and is absorbed into the large circulation of Typhoon Lan
south of Japan.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 PM this afternoon.

$$

Middlebrooke
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:44 pm

Image

Big change. Up to 60 knots peak and is now a TS.

WDPN33 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF BUILDING CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 192026Z 27GHZ WINDSAT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL
DEEP CONVECTIVE AREA FROM BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 192224Z OSCAT
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 AND 40 KNOT WIND BARBS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM
(31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TS 27W HAS DEVELOPED
A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS FLOWING INTO A TUTT CELL. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED AS PEAK INTENSITIES HAVE
INCREASED DUE TO A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO.
B. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. DUE TO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
BEING ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL, A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH TAU 36, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU
48, TS 27W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE RESULT OF
THE SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO TYPHOON 25W. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY TY 25W AROUND TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE LATER TAUS FOR
THE TRACK DIRECTION. THE INITIAL TRACK DIRECTION HAS NOT TURNED TO
THE NORTHWEST AS RAPIDLY AS FORECAST CAUSING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL FORECAST TRACK. THIS UNCERTAINTY, COMBINED WITH THE COMPLEX
NATURE OF THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:06 am

000
WTPQ83 PGUM 200538
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM 27W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
338 PM CHST FRI OCT 20 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SAIPAN...TINIAN...ALAMAGAN...
PAGAN AND AGRIHAN...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS,
TINIAN...SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND AGRIHAN.

A FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
SAIPAN AND TINIAN WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 27W WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.4N...LONGITUDE 151.6E.

THIS WAS
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN.
ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.
ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN.
ABOUT 605 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN.
ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN...AND
ABOUT 485 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

STORM MOTION WAS SOUTH AT 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING.


GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-201400-
/O.NEW.PGUM.TR.A.4027.171020T0538Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
338 PM CHST FRI OCT 20 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 6 AM SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 40 TO 50 MPH.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 9 TO 12 FEET.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AT 900 PM CHST IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

$$

GUZ005-201400
ALAMAGAN-PAGAN-AGRIHAN
255 PM CHST FRI OCT 20 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
60 MPH.

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 12 TO 15 FEET.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH OR WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PLAN SPECIFIC TO
YOUR LOCATION.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AT 900 PM CHST IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.


$$
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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