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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#41 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:43 pm

Interesting discussion this morning. Signs of a monsoon depression developing ?

.Discussion...
Still some debate on what Tropical Depression 27W will do. It did
move to the southeast overnight and resumed a more westward track
early this morning. The convection is not that close to the center
and so the system will be slow to increase in intensity which is
what the models and JTWC forecast show. Models do seem in fair
agreement with 27W passing south and southwest of Guam sometime on
Tuesday. It may become a tropical storm as it passes on Tuesday.
It is not certain if it will reach this intensity since the system
still is undergoing some wind shear. One thought to consider is
that after looking at the surface analysis is that despite the
small insignificant size of 27W it is embedded inside a larger
circulation pattern. Also looking at the satellite imagery there
are hints of this larger circulation pattern. Could the
depression quickly gel into a better organized system. At this
time it does not appear to be ready to do this and models suggest
if it does, it will be passed the local area. At the very least 27W will bring some showery weather with the possibility of gusty
winds tonight through Wednesday night.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#42 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:18 am

Peak up to 95 knots.

WDPN33 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
313 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. A 222053Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS BROAD
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC, HOWEVER, A 222357Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY WHILE A 222314Z OSCAT BULLS-EYE IMAGE SHOWED A
MORE SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) BASED ON THE ASCAT AND OSCAT
DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH
DECREASING (15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. RECENT SOUNDINGS FROM GUAM AND
700MB MODEL ANALYSES HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A WEAKENING NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST, WHICH IS PROVIDING A WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AFTER TAU 18 TO 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SLOW INTENSIFICATION / CONSOLIDATION.
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE NOW SPLIT INTO TWO DISCRETE GROUPS WITH NVGM, JGSM
AND JENS INDICATING A SHARP RECURVE TRACK OVER IWO-TO AND THE
REMAINING TRACKERS INDICATING A MORE GRADUAL RECURVE SCENARIO OVER
AND JUST EAST OF THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. ANALYSIS OF NAVGEM FIELDS SHOWS
NAVGEM IS PUNCHING THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH IS LIKELY ERRONEOUS, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS ALIGNED
WITH THE WESTERN GROUP OF MODEL TRACKERS (AVNO, AEMN, UEMN, ECMF,
EEMN, AFUM). THESE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 155NM SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE WESTERN GROUP OF MODELS DIVERGE
WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE RECURVE POINT AND TIMING OF THE
RECURVE. TD 27W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS AT
TAU 120 DUE TO THE IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN MODEL
GUIDANCE AND LARGE SPREAD IN THE WESTERN GROUP OF MODEL TRACKERS.
AFTER TAU 120, STRONG ZONAL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
JAPAN MAKING LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND JAPAN UNLIKELY.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#43 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:25 am

WDPN33 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE FIXES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS HEDGED HIGER
THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A 222314Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING SPORADIC AREAS OF 30 KNOTS
SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE OSCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A REGION OF 40
KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS APPROXIMATELY 220 NM TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS DUE TO A DECREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH IS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
DECREASING INTO THE MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE CATEGORY. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO VERY WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 27W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A
BUILDING MID-TO-LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK WITH AN EARLIER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKENING TREND IN THE LATER TAUS.
B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE 24 TO 36 HOURS
WHICH WILL ACCELERATE TD 27W TO THE NORTHWEST. THE EASTERN TUTT WILL
ADVERSELY INFLUENCE OUTFLOW AND CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BUT THEREAFTER CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL SHOW GREAT IMPROVEMENT
AND TD 27 IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF TRACK POSSIBILITIES IN THE EARLY TAUS
RELATED TO THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE JAPANESE MODELS AND
NAVGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH TAU 36 AND
FAVOR A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. GFS AND HWRF ARE SHOWING A MORE
AGGRESSIVE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 AND FAVOR THE FAR
WESTWARD TRACK SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST, FOLLOWING A TRACK NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HEDGED TOWARD GFS AND HWRF WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS FURTHER UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING AROUND TAU 48 THROUG 72, PASSING
POLEWARD OF TD 27W. AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH, THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ERODED TO SOME DEGREE AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW WILL BE ENHANCED HELPING TD 27W TO REACH THE PEAK 90 KNOT
INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 72 THE STR IS FORECAST TO AGAIN STRENGTHEN
RESTRICTING THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM ENHANCED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG ZONAL FLOW FROM THE THE MID-
LATITUDE JET POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU
96, AND SHOULD KEEP THE TRACK BEYOND TAU 120 SOUTH OF JAPAN.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LARGER SEPARATION IN THE LATER
TAUS AS A RESULT OF THE DISPARITY IN INTENSITIES BETWEEN MODELS,
DEPENDENT ON STEERING LEVELS, AND THE TROUGH-RIDGE INTERACTION
AROUND TAU 48. THE GFS SOLUTION IS STILL THE FURTHEST WESTWARD
OUTLIER WITH NAVGEM AND THE JAPANESE MODELS SHOWING AN UNREALISTIC
EASTWARD TURN INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#44 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:35 am

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 230636
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
422 PM ChST Mon Oct 23 2017

PMZ171-172-232000-
YAP-CHUUK-
422 PM ChST Mon Oct 23 2017

...FRESH TO STRONG MONSOON WINDS ACROSS YAP AND CHUUK STATE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHUUK AND 500 MILES EAST OF YAP. TD 27W WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON 27W...SEE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ33 PGUM.

CONVERGING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL WINDS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF 27W WILL IMPACT ISLANDS IN WESTERN CHUUK STATE AND EASTERN YAP
STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THE ISLANDS OF WOLEAI...FARAULEP...SATAWAL...PULUWAT AND ULUL...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE ISLANDS OF FANANU...WENO AND LOSAP...
EXPECT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE OPERATION OF SMALL BOATS...
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOAT SHOULD BE POSTPONED AT LEAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL ALSO BE
HAZARDOUS...PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. AVOID VENTURING OUT
TO REEF LINES AND EXPOSED BEACHES.

SINCE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 27W...RESIDENTS ACROSS CHUUK STATE AND YAP STATE SHOULD
MONITOR CLOSELY ITS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF YOU ARE
PLANNING OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITY...BE AWARE OF CURRENT MARINE
CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO
GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/.

$$

SIMPSON
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#45 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:40 am

GEFS giving Guam a 50 percent chance of 40 knot winds and a 95 percent chance of 30 knot winds on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#46 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:23 am

It has survived the brutal shear over the past few days and now shear is lessening around it. It's future looks promising.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#47 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:07 am

GFS wants to demolish Okinawa. It has a Cat 5 right over the island for a few runs now.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#48 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:06 am

Back up to a TS.

27W TWENTYSEVE 171023 1200 9.6N 145.9E WPAC 40 999
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#49 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:26 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
STRUGGLING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
PARTIAL 231157Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AND SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LLCC AT THE EDGE OF SWATH WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND A SOLID REGION OF 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, NOTING SEVERAL UNFLAGGED 40 KNOT BARBS
APPROXIMATELY 50NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC. BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE, HEDGED
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25
KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS DUE TO DECREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING INTO THE
MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE CATEGORY. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO VERY
WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TS 27W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A BUILDING MID-TO-LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE 24 TO 36 HOURS
WHICH WILL ACCELERATE TS 27W TO THE NORTHWEST. THE EASTERN TUTT WILL
ADVERSELY INFLUENCE OUTFLOW AND CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BUT THEREAFTER CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL SHOW GREAT IMPROVEMENT
AND TS 27W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF TRACK POSSIBILITIES IN THE EARLY TAUS
RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE JAPANESE MODELS
AND NAVGEM ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS WHILE AFUM IS SHOWING AN
ANOMALOUS WESTWARD TRACK. THE REMAINING TRACKERS LIE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE OUTLIERS, IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AND
THE BASIS FOR THE JTWC TRACK FOR THE EARLY PERIOD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS FURTHER UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING AROUND TAU 48 THROUGH 72, PASSING
POLEWARD OF TS 27W. AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH, THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ERODED TO SOME DEGREE AND UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW WILL BE ENHANCED HELPING TS 27W TO REACH THE PEAK 90 KNOT
INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 72 THE STR IS FORECAST TO AGAIN STRENGTHEN
RESTRICTING THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM ENHANCED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG ZONAL FLOW FROM THE THE MID-
LATITUDE JET POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND BEYOND TAU
72. THE STRONG PRESENCE OF THE WESTERLY JET SHOULD KEEP THE TRACK
BEYOND TAU 120 SOUTH OF JAPAN. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH
LARGER SEPARATION IN THE LATER TAUS AS A RESULT OF THE DISPARITY IN
INTENSITIES BETWEEN MODELS, DEPENDENT ON STEERING LEVELS, AND THE
TROUGH-RIDGE INTERACTION AROUND TAU 48. THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE
FURTHEST WESTWARD OUTLIER WITH NAVGEM AND THE JAPANESE MODELS
SHOWING AN UNREALISTIC EASTWARD TURN INTO THE STEERING RIDGE. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HEDGED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#50 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:28 pm

Image

Looking alot better.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#51 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:42 pm

I wonder what model will be right.

GFS peaks this 904mb and slams it hard into Okinawa.

Image

HWRF also strengthens this significantly and passes very close to Okinawa.

Image

EURO show alot less strengthening and recurves it into the Pacific.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#52 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 3:13 pm

Looks like it's already a TS. Plenty of 35kt winds on the 12Z ASCAT:

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#53 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:18 pm

Winds gusting to almost 40 mph here.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#54 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:19 pm

Image

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 232201
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 27W ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP272017
800 AM ChST Tue Oct 24 2017

...TROPICAL STORM 27W MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
---------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Guam...Rota and the
surrounding coastal waters in the Mariana Islands.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...10.3N 144.1E

About 220 miles south-southwest of Guam
About 275 miles south-southwest of Rota
About 340 miles south-southwest of Tinian
About 350 miles south-southwest of Saipan
About 285 miles northwest of Satawal
About 395 miles west-northwest of Ulul
About 405 miles northwest of Puluwat
About 120 miles north-northwest of Faraulep
About 245 miles east of Fais
About 305 miles east of Ulithi

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 13 mph.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM ChST...2100 UTC...the poorly defined center of Tropical
Storm 27W was located near latitude 10.3 degrees North and longitude
144.1 degrees East...moving west at 13 mph. Tropical Storm 27W is
expected to turn to a northwest track later today through Wednesday
with an increase in forward speed. This forecast track takes 27W
southwest of Guam and northeast of Fais early this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40 mph. However, Tropical
Storm 27W is still expected to resume slow intensification this
afternoon. Once 27W gets into the Philippine Sea, it should intensify
further Wednesday through Thursday.

There is still considerable uncertainty on the exact track and
intensity of 27W as it passes between Guam and Fais this afternoon.
Residents of Fais and Ulithi in Yap State should closely monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm 27W.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 AM, followed by the next scheduled advisory at
200 PM this afternoon.

$$

Middlebrooke
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#55 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:25 pm

Really lucky this isn't at least a typhoon now. A TUTT cell is suppressing poleward outflow from developing. It's east of Guam or northeast of TS 27W.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#56 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:56 pm

Weaker on the 18Z GFS run. It brings a 938mb typhoon to Okinawa.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#57 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:15 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W

#58 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:27 pm

Andersen AFB just issused a damaging wind warning (winds, including gusts, in excess of 58mph) valid between 1300L and 1500L. Radar shows winds of 58 mph have been spotted inside of rainshowers heading in our direction.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (Tropical Storm - JTWC)

#59 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:22 pm

Image

Winds still gusting to 40 mph. Peak occurred about 4 hours ago when Andersen recorded 37 mph gusting to 48 mph. Very little rain.

ASCAT showing a large area of 40 to 50 mph within our area. I'm glad JTWC ignored Dvorak.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (Tropical Storm - JTWC)

#60 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:26 am

Named TS Saola by the JMA, which marks the end of the third cycle of the WPAC name list.
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