WPAC: SAOLA

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM SAOLA

#61 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:59 am

Image
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TS 1722 (Saola)
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 24 October 2017

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 24 October>

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°30' (11.5°)
E141°00' (141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#62 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:32 am

Remains 40 knots.

WDPN33 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159 NM
WEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, BROAD, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 240206Z
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, A 240031Z
METOB-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE HIGHLY
ELONGATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED MSI.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS)
FROM RJTD AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 41 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 27W CURRENTLY HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY SUBSIDENCE
FROM A TUTT CELL LOCATED EAST OF GUAM. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TO
THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST. AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE RIDGE
AXIS AND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AS IT BEGINS TO
RECURVE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 27W WILL PASS THE RIDGE AXIS AND ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, EVENTUALLY
REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 80 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD IN BOTH TRACK DIRECTION AND
SPEED AFTER TAU 48 WITH JGSM BEING THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER, TRACKING
THE SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS.
THE SYSTEM SPEED ALSO VARIES LENDING A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE SYSTEM SPEED IN THE LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE VARIABILITY IN
BOTH TRACK AND SPEED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#63 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:35 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#64 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:53 am

Peak winds are a little higher than i suspect. 56 mph up at AAFB located on the northern tip of Guam.
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#65 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:10 pm

Image

WDPN33 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM NORTH OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE AREA SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN A FLARE UP OF WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC,
BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST ACTIVITY REMAINS ISOLATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 241036Z OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED
THAT THE LLCC WAS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ORIGINAL 241200Z INITIAL
POSITION, LEADING TO A RELOCATION OF THE 1200Z BEST TRACK POSITION
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD. THE CURRENT (241800Z) INITIAL POSITION
CONTINUES THE TREND OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT SEEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 12
HOURS, THOUGH THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE AVAILABLE INFRARED IMAGERY. A 241536Z NPP ATMS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH ASSISTED IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.5
(35 TO 45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITIES
OF 2.3 (33 KTS). THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
OSCAT PASS SHOWING MOSTLY 30 KNOT WIND BARBS WITH ONLY A COUPLE 35
KNOT BARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE
TO UNFAVORABLE (15-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (31 DEG CELSIUS). THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE RAPID MOVEMENT AND THE LIMITED OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING
HINDERED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
BRINGING CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK POLEWARD CHANNEL DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TS SAOLA CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK HAS FLATTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS THE STR HAS BUILT WESTWARD, FORCING 27W TO
A WESTWARD TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE SHORT-TERM TRACK HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD BASED
ON THE UPDATED INITIAL POSITION.
B. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BY TAU
24, THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION,
WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY A BREAK IN THE RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS NEAR 13OE
LONGITUDE, ALLOWING SAOLA TO TURN NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 36. TRACK
SPEEDS WILL SLOW FROM TAU 12 THROUGH 72, AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A
WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. THE GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 60, SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, THEREAFTER
ACCELERATING AND TURNING NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR 12 HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE AND WEAK OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION RESUMES THROUGH TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A
BETTER OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, ESTABLISHES A POLEWARD CHANNEL AND VWS
DECREASES, PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE
AXIS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24,
THOUGH THE JTWC FORECAST IS TO SOUTH OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH
TAU 24, IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT MOTION TO THE WEST. BEYOND THIS
POINT THE JTWC TRACK BECOMES MORE IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, THOUGH THE OVERALL SPREAD OF THE MODELS INCREASES AFTER
TAU 48. ECMWF AND GFS ARE THE WESTERN OUTLIERS, SHOWING A LANDFALL
OVER OKINAWA AROUND TAU 84. NAVGEM AND HWRF ARE THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS, SOME 400NM EAST OF OKINAWA. WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 48, AND THE RECENT TRACK CHANGES, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 27W WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS, ACCELERATING
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, IT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY THAN
SHOWN ON THE FORECAST, AFTER TAU 72, BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). AS THE SYSTEM PASSES 30 DEG NORTH BY
TAU 96, IT WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO ET BECOMING FULLY ET BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST, BOTH CROSS AND ALONG TRACK. THE JTWC
TRACK IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE PRINCIPLE
OUTLIERS ARE GFS AND HWRF, BOTH INDICATING A SHARPER TURN AND LYING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE JTWC TRACK, WHILE UKMET INDICATES A SHALLOWER
TURN AND TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER THE KANTO PLAN. ADDITIONALLY, THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SYSTEM SPEED AFTER TAU 72, CREATING A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO
THE VARIABILITY IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#66 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:20 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#67 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:20 pm

Image
Image

WDPN33 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE FLARE UP
OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
INDICATING INCREASING ORGANIZATION, BUT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A 250010Z ASCAT-B
BULLSEYE PASS, CONFIRMING THE LLCC TOWARDS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE BALL. A 242237Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD LLCC,
WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.5 (35 TO 45 KTS)
FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITIES OF 2.8 (43
KTS), AND SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT DATA, SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF 35-
40 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, THOUGH THESE
ARE IN THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (31 DEG CELSIUS). THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO
BE THE WEAK WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING
HINDERED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TS SAOLA IS TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE TRACK HAS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, AFTER THE PREVIOUS MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY, AS THE STR HAS
BEGUN TO REORIENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG 13OE LONGITUDE BY
AROUND TAU 24, ALLOWING SAOLA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24.
TRACK SPEEDS WILL SLOW FROM TAU 24 THROUGH 72, AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-
LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH
IS KEY TO JUST HOW FAR WEST TS 27W WILL TRACK BEFORE ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 72 IN THE VICINITY OF OKINAWA. ONCE THE SYSTEM
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, IT WILL ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY FOR 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND PERSISTENT
CONVERGENT AND WEAK OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION RESUMES THROUGH TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A
BETTER OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT AND ESTABLISHES A POLEWARD CHANNEL,
PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH TAU 72, DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. ECMWF AND HWRF ARE THE
WESTERN OUTLIERS, INDICATING A VERY CLOSE CPA, OR DIRECT HIT, ON
OKINAWA AROUND TAU 72. NAVGEM AND COTC ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS.
WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 48, THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 27W WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS, ACCELERATING
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS, IT WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION
BEFORE THE TAU 120 POINT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST, BOTH IN TRACK AND
FORWARD SPEED. THE JTWC TRACK IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS TRACK, BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER IN ALONG TRACK SPEED. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS
ARE GFS AND ECMWF, BOTH INDICATING A SHARPER TURN AND LYING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE JTWC TRACK, WHILE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
INDICATES A SHALLOWER TURN TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER TOKYO. DUE TO
THE VARIABILITY IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#68 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:28 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2017 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 14:43:18 N Lon : 134:55:17 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 996.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 2.8 2.8

Center Temp : -18.8C Cloud Region Temp : -60.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.6 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#69 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:01 am

The GFS back up to intense mode. It brings down Saola to 936mb before a direct hit. EURO is calmer borderline typhoon.

GFS keeps Saola around for 8-9 more days.
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#70 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:06 am

HWRF goes bonkers with this.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#71 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:21 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 OCT 2017 Time : 054000 UTC
Lat : 15:11:39 N Lon : 134:08:28 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 993.7mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -61.1C Cloud Region Temp : -61.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.5 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#72 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:54 am

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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#73 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 2:50 am

Image

A nerve wacking week for Okinawa.

Image
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#74 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:49 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 642 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED EIR AND A TIMELY
251800Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW, BASED ON A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM AND
IMPROVED OVERALL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
QUADRANTS. TS 27W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A BREAK SITUATED
NEAR OKINAWA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 251203Z ASCAT
IMAGE.
B. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 225NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT THE RECURVE
POINT NEAR OKINAWA. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AND IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE JUST EAST OF
OKINAWA WHILE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). NAVGEM
REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER INDICATING A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
TRACK (THROUGH TAU 120) OVER TAIWAN. ANALYSIS OF NAVGEM FIELDS
INDICATES AN ERRONEOUS TRACK DUE TO EXCESSIVE DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION THEN A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM
GETS TRAPPED WITHIN A STRONG COLD SURGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN TO THE
EAST CHINA SEA. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH VENTING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 27W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHRACTERISTICS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE AN ARCTIC COLD SURGE OVER JAPAN NEAR TAU 120, WHICH
COULD AFFECT BOTH TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY, HOWEVER, IT'S TOO EARLY
TO ACCURATELY ASSESS THE IMPACT OR TO JUSTIFY CHANGING THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72,
THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#75 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:19 am

Image

WDPN33 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 533 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 260414Z 89GHZ AMSR2 IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES, AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS
BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), A PREVIOUS
260001Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT,
AND A 260416Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE JUST NORTHEAST OF TS 27W CREATING STRONG
EASTERLY CONDITIONS, WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE PROTRUDING
WESTWARD LIMITING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. DESPITE THE
PREVALENT EASTERLIES TS 27W IS STRUGGLING TO CREATE A POINT SOURCE
OVER THE LLCC, EVIDENCED BY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION AND
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT 27 TO 28 CELSIUS, BUT ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM TO
FUEL CYCLOGENESIS. CURRENTLY TS 27W IS TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD NOW MAKING LANDFALL OVER OKINAWA NEAR TAU 48.
B. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS GUIDED BY THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 48 HOURS IMPROVING OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND TS 27W IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. JUST BEFORE TAU 48 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FURTHER WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL LEADING TO A FASTER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS, AND A SHIFT
IN TRACK MOTION TO THE NORTH EAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DIVERGENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM TRACK
RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTLY BEFORE AND DURING
THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS PROVEN TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FAR WESTERN OUTLIER
WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF ONLY RECENTLY FAVORING A WESTWARD TRACK. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS NOW BIASED TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS WITH A TRACK
DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLAND OF OKINAWA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 27W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD JUST AFTER TAU NEAR TAU 60 ONCE CAPTURED BY THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A COLD SURGE EVENT OVER THE
SEA OF JAPAN AND EAST CHINA SEA ENHANCING THE GALE FORCE WIND
DISTRIBUTION. TS 27W WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO COLD CORE LOW
AROUND TAU 72 AS THE COOL DRY AIR AND BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
JAPANESE ISLANDS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND KEEPING THE
TRACK FURTHER SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU
72 WITH GFS AND NOW ECMWF SHOWING TRACK SOUTH OF 30 DEGREES NORTH,
AND MOST OTHERS SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE OF HONSHU. NAVGEM
KEEPS THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY JUST AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO AN
UNREALISTIC STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE RECENT
CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS SOLUTION, PERFORMANCE RECORD WITH ECMWF, AND
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HEDGED TOWARD
THESE SOLUTIONS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#76 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:31 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#77 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:32 am

It's currently passing over the cold wake from Lan. Intensification could level off.
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#78 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:32 pm

Image

WDPN33 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A
261856Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED EIR AND THE 261856Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). TS 27W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A BREAK SITUATED
NEAR OKINAWA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EEMN (ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN), WHICH
INDICATES A SHARP SOUTHWEST TURN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE EVENT,
THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. TS 27W IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36
AND IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE JUST NORTH OF OKINAWA. NEAR TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH VENTING INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AS THE SYSTEM RECURVES AND TRACKS SOUTH OF
JAPAN, INCREASING VWS AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL
SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 27W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM
WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHRACTERISTICS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS DEVELOP A STRONG COLD SURGE EVENT OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
MAINLAND JAPAN, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS LOW
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#79 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:47 am

27W SAOLA 171027 0600 22.4N 128.9E WPAC 50 991
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#80 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:26 am

WDPN33 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SOME STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 270457Z 89GHZ AMSR2
IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC STILL RELATIVELY BROAD WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, COMBINED WITH
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 270104 SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS THE NORTHEASTERN ANTICYCLONE RETREATS TO THE EAST ALLOWING
THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS FAIRLY ROBUST WITH A POINT SOURCE NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ACCOMPANYING EASTERLIES
ARE STILL EXERTING INFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE, CREATING A
RECEDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SSTS ARE RELATIVELY WARM NEAR 28 CELSIUS
AND CONDUCIVE FOR CYCLOGENESIS. CURRENTLY TS 27W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS GUIDED BY THE STR, THEN TURNING POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AXIS TAKING A TRACK OVER THE ISLAND OF OKINAWA. THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TAPS INTO THE WESTERLY JET. BEYOND TAU
24 TS 27W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING WIND
SHEAR AND BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY AS IT BEGINS TRANSITION INTO A COLD
CORE LOW SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. AROUND TAU 48 A COLD SURGE
OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN WILL EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHERN JAPANESE ISLANDS
ENHANCING THE DISTRIBUTION OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THE COOL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT INTO TS 27W WILL AID IN THE RAPID DETERIORATION OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT GETS EMBEDDED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
COMPLETES ETT SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 SOUTH OF HONSHU. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WHICH IS IMPROVING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, BEGINNING AROUND TAU 36 THE SPEED IN WHICH TS 27W
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD IS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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