WPAC: SAOLA

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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

#81 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:06 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#82 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:00 am

A nasty strike for Okinawa and mainland Japan.
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#83 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 3:40 pm

Image

Nearing Okinawa.
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#84 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:18 pm

Looks very much a typhoon on radar.
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#85 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:08 pm

27W SAOLA 171028 0000 25.5N 128.0E WPAC 65 980

Now a typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#86 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:10 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 280020

A. TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA)

B. 28/0000Z

C. 25.56N

D. 127.98E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .90 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
3.5 DT. MET/PT 4.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - TROPICAL STORM

#87 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:12 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / (Typhoon - JTWC)

#88 Postby NotoSans » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:32 pm

Official intensity estimates pretty much in line with surface observations.
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / (Typhoon - JTWC)

#89 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:36 am

WDPN33 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM SOUTH OF KADENA
AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE AND RAGGED BANDING EYE THAT IS NOT QUITE
CLOSED. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ON A RADAR COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM OKINAWA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0
AND REFLECTS THE UPGRADED STATUS OF TY 27W. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS ALSO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE CAUSED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM CHINA. IN THE SAME AREA, A ROBUST
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP.
HOWEVER, VERY STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY
INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, PLUS WARM SSTS AT 28
CELSIUS, ARE OFFSETTING THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS AND CAUSING NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SAOLA WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT WILL PASS OVER
EASTERN OKINAWA THEN SKIRT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN. THE
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PREVAIL AND INTENSIFY 27W TO A PEAK OF
75 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE STRONG WINDS WILL TRANSLATE TO
STRONG VWS. ADDITIONALLY, COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND COOLING SSTS,
CONCURRENT WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36, WILL
STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH A RAPIDLY EXPANDING WIND FIELD IN THE
PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, AS TYPICAL
WITH RECURVE SCENARIOS, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
LATERAL SPEED AMONG THE TRACK MEMBERS. THE TRACK SPEEDS DIFFER EVEN
GREATER AT THE ETT PHASE. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 24, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTERWARD.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / (Typhoon - JTWC)

#90 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:40 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / (Typhoon - JTWC)

#91 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:57 am

Image

WDPN33 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM NORTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 15NM EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL LOOP AND
RADAR IMAGERY FROM OKINAWA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS)
FROM RJTD AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS STRONG
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, THE FORMER OF WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BEING ENHANCED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, THE STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE OFFSET BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHICH IS THE RESULT OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND DRY AIR ENTRAINING FROM THE
NORTH. TYPHOON SAOLA IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SAOLA WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF JAPAN. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK OF 75
KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BECOMING FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 48, BECOMING A COLD
CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE LATER TAUS AS IT ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO
THE VARIATION IN SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST THROUGH TAU 24, AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / (Typhoon - JTWC)

#92 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:03 am

Winds measured at stations

Some impressive wind gust.
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / (Typhoon - JTWC)

#93 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:07 am

TXPQ22 KNES 280947
TCSWNP

A. 27W (SAOLA)

B. 28/0830Z

C. 27.7N

D. 129.1E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SAOLA HAS FULLY CLOSED OFF AN EYE NOW ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE
RAGGED AND ELONGATED. OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN MG WITH A SURROUNDING LG RING
TEMPERATURE FOR E-NUMBER OF 4.5. EYE ADJUSTMENT OF -.5 FOR BEING RAGGED
GIVES DT=4.0. MET=4.0 BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPING TREND. PT=4.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / (Typhoon - JTWC)

#94 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:18 am

Amami Oshima in the eye of Saola. Lowest pressure I can find is 979.1 from Naze.
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / (Typhoon - JTWC)

#95 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:48 am

Nago recorded 973.9 mb earlier
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / (Typhoon - JTWC)

#96 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:55 pm

75 knots.

WDPN33 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 30-NM RAGGED EYE.
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO GET SHEARED POLEWARD; HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT AND WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND ON A RADAR
COMPOSITE LOOP FROM JMA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HEDGED ON THE HIGHER END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE
TIGHTER WRAP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 27W IS NOW IN AN AREA
OF STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, ITS STORM
MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND THE STRONG
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ARE OFFSETTING THE VWS. ON THE
NEGATIVE SIDE, THE SYSTEM IS NOW APPROACHING THE COLD BAROCLINIC
ZONE, AS EVIDENCED BY AN ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LINES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE EIR LOOP. THE CYCLONE IS ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SAOLA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD, SKIRTING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOW HAVE AN
OVERALL NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE A GRADUAL TO RAPID
WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 12, AS THE SYSTEM GETS EMBEDDED DEEPER IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, TY 27W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND
BECOME A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD
BY TAU 24. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / (Typhoon - JTWC)

#97 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:44 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 38//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DECAY AS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISPLACED NORTHEASTWARD, PARTLY EXPOSING A
RAGGED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI AND JMA COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 27W IS TRACKING DEEPER INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH STRONG (30-KNOT PLUS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, AS EVIDENCED BY
AN ENTRAINMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS LINES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE MSI
LOOP. THE CYCLONE IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SAOLA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD, SKIRTING THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN AND TRACKING OVER TOKYO BEFORE EXITING BACK
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. THE DEGRADED
ENVIRONMENT, IN ADDITION TO COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LAND
INTERACTION, WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL TO RAPID WEAKENING. BY TAU 12, AS
THE SYSTEM GETS EMBEDDED DEEPER IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, TY 27W WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION THEN BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 24. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM / (Typhoon - JTWC)

#98 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 29, 2017 5:25 am

Image

Downgraded to a TS.

WDPN33 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR
39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 28
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TS SAOLA IS RAPIDLY DECAYING AND THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL LOOP AND ANIMATED RADAR LOOPS
FROM JMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T3.5 TO T4.5 (55-77 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 61 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF STRONG (30+ KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH
AN AREA OF COOL (<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOP, AND BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LINES FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON THE MULTISPECTRAL LOOP. TS SAOLA IS ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS SAOLA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD,
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS
JUST SOUTH OF TOKYO MAKING A VERY BRIEF LANDFALL. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TS 27W WILL
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SAOLA - SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

#99 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:10 am

Now ExtraTropical...

Image
Image
LOW
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 29 October 2017

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 29 October>

Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N38°00' (38.0°)
E144°00' (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 110 km/h (60 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
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