BOB: Invest 98B (IMD Depression)

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BOB: Invest 98B (IMD Depression)

#1 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:18 am

98B INVEST 171016 0000 15.0N 90.2E IO 15 NA

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Re: BOB: Invest 98B

#2 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:24 am

Models, including GFS and ECMWF, indicate the development of a Tropical Storm within the next 48hrs as this system moves towards the Indian state of Odisha or northern Andhra Pradesh, with landfall possible mid or late this week...

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Weakening may occur, however, once near the Indian coast due to dry air coming from the Indian subcontinent...

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Re: BOB: Invest 98B

#3 Postby Iune » Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:22 pm

Next name on the list is Ockhi, submitted by Bangladesh.
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Re: BOB: Invest 98B (IMD Depression)

#4 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:33 am

After days of struggling, 98B is now looking better organized on satellite imagery—the best that 98B has looked so far...

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The system is already classified as a Tropical Depression by the Navy/JTWC and India Met Department(IMD) (A "Depression" by the IMD, to be exact)...

IMD:
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JTWC:
98B INVEST 171019 0600 17.1N 86.8E IO 25 1004
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Re: BOB: Invest 98B (IMD Depression)

#5 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:56 am

Already nearing the coast of Odisha state...
Intensification into a minimal Tropical Storm couldn't be ruled out yet, although the chances of that are now lower compared to the past few days due to impending land interaction...

Once over land, model guidance suggests that the weakening but probably still fairly organized system will turn ENE/NE towards West Bengal and northern Bangladesh, and completely dissipate during the weekend or early next week...


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Re: BOB: Invest 98B (IMD Depression)

#6 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:12 am

Regardless of 98B's strength, it will mostly be a heavy rainfall threat to Odisha, West Bengal, Northeast Indian States, and Bangladesh...

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Re: BOB: Invest 98B (IMD Depression)

#7 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:58 pm

Invest/TD 98B now over land...
The strongest convection are found to the north and northeast system's center, with radar imagery as well as weather observations(SYNOP) indicating moderate to heavy rainfall affecting some parts of Odisha and the West Bengal...


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Re: BOB: Ex-98B (IMD Depression)

#8 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:18 am

This system is no longer designated as an Invest by the Navy/JTWC (ex-98B), but IMD is still calling it a Depression as of 14Z(7:30pm IST) this Saturday... It is centered over northern Bangladesh or possibly now over NE India, and IMD forecasts it to weaken into a Low Pressure Area within the next 24hrs as it continues to move eastward...

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IMD:
The depression over Bangladesh moved eastwards with a speed of 15 kmph in the past six hours and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 21st October 2017 over Bangladesh, near Latitude 24.2ºN and longitude 90.2ºE, about 50 km northwest of Dhaka (Bangladesh). The system is very likely to continue move eastwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.
Warning:
(i) Heavy Rainfall warning:

Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places very likely over Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during next 24 hours.
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