ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:49 pm

Discussion for 93L goes here


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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#2 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:50 pm

TT Thread here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119341

AL, 93, 2017102006, , BEST, 0, 113N, 725W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102012, , BEST, 0, 113N, 735W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102018, , BEST, 0, 113N, 745W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102100, , BEST, 0, 113N, 755W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102106, , BEST, 0, 113N, 765W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102112, , BEST, 0, 113N, 775W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102118, , BEST, 0, 113N, 785W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102200, , BEST, 0, 113N, 795W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102206, , BEST, 0, 113N, 805W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102212, , BEST, 0, 113N, 815W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 822W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102300, , BEST, 0, 120N, 826W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102306, , BEST, 0, 125N, 827W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102312, , BEST, 0, 130N, 828W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102318, , BEST, 0, 135N, 829W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 110, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS039, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,
AL, 93, 2017102400, , BEST, 0, 140N, 830W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039, SPAWNINVEST, al782017 to al932017,
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#3 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:56 pm

10/50

1. An elongated area of low pressure has formed near the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua. This broad disturbance is producing widespread
cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms over much of the northwestern
and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and the adjacent coastal areas of
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Further development,
if any, should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to
interaction with the high terrain of Central America. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while the
system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#4 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:01 pm

Convection on the increase:

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#5 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:05 pm

:uarrow: Wow! Even some grey spots in there!
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#6 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:11 pm

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#7 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:36 pm

It is over an area of very warm water. That area has been largely untouched. Hurricane Nate went over the Western Caribbean, but did not intensify quickly due to its fast movement.

Some of the most intense hurricanes in October have formed in that area like Janet (1955), Hattie (1961), Joan (1988), Mitch (1998), Lenny (1999), and Wilma (2005).

Not saying it will happen.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#8 Postby Kosmo Kitty » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:50 pm

If it happens, what kind of timeline are we looking at?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:57 pm

Kosmo Kitty wrote:If it happens, what kind of timeline are we looking at?

2 weeks?

Certainly not 2 weeks. More like in 5-6 days this will be in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#10 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:59 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:It is over an area of very warm water. That area has been largely untouched. Hurricane Nate went over the Western Caribbean, but did not intensify quickly due to its fast movement.

Some of the most intense hurricanes in October have formed in that area like Janet (1955), Hattie (1961), Joan (1988), Mitch (1998), Lenny (1999), and Wilma (2005).

Not saying it will happen.

Fortunately this one looks like it’ll be moving fast a lot like Nate. I currently see nothing other than those warm waters to suggest a hurricane coming out of this within the next 5 days at the moment.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#11 Postby Nimbus » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:00 pm

Well if this develops the next trough is almost sure to dig.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#12 Postby Kosmo Kitty » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Kosmo Kitty wrote:If it happens, what kind of timeline are we looking at?

2 weeks?

Certainly not 2 weeks. More like in 5-6 days this will be in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida.


Thank you.
Last edited by Kosmo Kitty on Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#13 Postby Frank2 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:07 pm

It should be well past 2 weeks from now. Just monitor the NHC page for updates at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Or of course media too, as long as they are not scaring viewers with bylines such as "trouble in the tropics" etc.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#14 Postby joey » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:18 pm

this one may skip the td stats and go right to a ts imo :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#15 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:49 pm

If this moves too fast, does that mean all of this warm water ended up not producing a major October monster?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#16 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:01 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:If this moves too fast, does that mean all of this warm water ended up not producing a major October monster?

Nope. And that should be a lesson on how warm water is overrated with regards to major hurricane potential.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#17 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:17 pm

It felt unusually tropical here tonight and sure enough...
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#18 Postby psyclone » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:46 pm

Sanibel wrote:It felt unusually tropical here tonight and sure enough...


it won't for long. the tropical feel is moisture pooling ahead of a front that's going to leave us feeling decidedly non tropical for the first time in months.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#19 Postby BZSTORM » Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:52 am

Well this finally numbered invest of disturbed weather of Nicuagua/Honduras coast brought allot of rain this morning to Belize. With ground saturation at max, the rain came down hard and caused various degrees of localized flooding countrywide. A friends weather station recorded on the peninsula where I live 2.75" rain in one & half hours, most of that was from 11.30am - 12.30pm 2.12". All flood zones in South are also on flood watch tonight. Macal river residents in Cayo were put on flash flood watch for tonight along river banks as river was rising fast at 2pm, many other rivers in the South Belize had risen, receded and now are on rise again, all the mountain rain making its way downstream. . And Bz Met forecasts another day of rain again tomorrow. The frogs are happy as I'm sure the mosquitoes are too with the abundant flooded areas.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#20 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:54 am

sheared out slop, enjoy the fall weather florida
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