ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#281 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:28 pm

Looking less and less tropical by the hour..
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#282 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:43 pm

Philippe may be transitioning to an extratropical system and merging with a baroclinic non-tropical low in the SE GOM. Looking like a hybrid storm similar to 2001's Gabrielle as it also had a lot of baroclinic forcing.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#283 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:55 pm

this type system you see late oct not looking good system like aug storms
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#284 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:05 pm

It's looking like it's going to be a hefty storm for us in the Northeast, we're under a High Wind Watch, and a Flash Flood Watch, is it a coincidence that this on the 5 year anniversary of Sandy, or not?

:spam:
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#285 Postby idaknowman » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:10 pm

Since South Florida is now in the cone, why isn't there a tropical storm Warning?
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#286 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:13 pm

idaknowman wrote:Since South Florida is now in the cone, why isn't there a tropical storm Warning?


see the thread about what the cone means
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#287 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:25 pm

The local news showed a tornado touching down live in West Palm. THe Kravis cam picked it up as it was forming.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#288 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:46 pm

look dry air could over south fl after midnight look rain going move to east of south fl
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#289 Postby beoumont » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:51 pm

weathaguyry wrote:It's looking like it's going to be a hefty storm for us in the Northeast, we're under a High Wind Watch, and a Flash Flood Watch, is it a coincidence that this on the 5 year anniversary of Sandy, or not?

:spam:


Not a coincidence. The event is preordained, in the book of revolutions.

In actuality, all (organized) weather systems and events are a coincidence of meteorological factors.
Last edited by beoumont on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:15 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#290 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:52 pm

Shell Mound wrote:I'm struggling to find evidence of a closed circulation at the surface on either radar or satellite. The system looks more like a broad surface trough (low) with gradient-induced gales than a tropical cyclone. It's similar to Nicole (2010) and especially Colin (2016). At best, there is a broad area of vorticity with little evidence of a fully closed, defined circulation. Notably, I see little convergence in and near the estimated location of the "center." Philippe also does not appear to be fully tropical, given its proximity to dry air and a non-tropical low. Baroclinic forcing seems to have taken over, and all I see is a sharp trough axis on GOES-16 loops. I'm not so sure that this deserves a name at this point, though of course the Hurricane Center is the final arbiter.

Just to illustrate what I am referring to, since some people prefer visuals or are visually oriented:

Image

Again, these are but my own interpretations of the situation, not official. Just my own thoughts!

Not trying to sound superior, just illustrating—the mods decide 8-)
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#291 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:02 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:I'm struggling to find evidence of a closed circulation at the surface on either radar or satellite. The system looks more like a broad surface trough (low) with gradient-induced gales than a tropical cyclone. It's similar to Nicole (2010) and especially Colin (2016). At best, there is a broad area of vorticity with little evidence of a fully closed, defined circulation. Notably, I see little convergence in and near the estimated location of the "center." Philippe also does not appear to be fully tropical, given its proximity to dry air and a non-tropical low. Baroclinic forcing seems to have taken over, and all I see is a sharp trough axis on GOES-16 loops. I'm not so sure that this deserves a name at this point, though of course the Hurricane Center is the final arbiter.

Just to illustrate what I am referring to, since some people prefer visuals or are visually oriented:

Image

Again, these are but my own interpretations of the situation, not official. Just my own thoughts!

Not trying to sound superior, just illustrating—the mods decide 8-)

i do see dry air getting pull west of ts my thinking few hour rain stop in south fl and Bahamas could see stormy night
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#292 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:17 pm

Just lost power, almost no wind but heavy rain
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#293 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:20 pm

THe reformed circ is clearly defined wnw/nw of Key west on radar.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#294 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:20 pm

jlauderdal wrote:Just lost power, almost no wind but heavy rain

hope come back soon
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#295 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:31 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Just lost power, almost no wind but heavy rain

hope come back soon

Thanks...no lightning, grid is weak from irma, rain has stopped, i expect restoration by 10.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#296 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:31 pm

A wind gust to 75mph was reported in West Palm, most likely associated with a tornado.

SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT MESONET SITE FHCHS NEAR INTERSECTION OF FOREST HILL BLVD AND INTERSTATE 95 MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 75 MPH. LIKELY ASSOCIATED WIT (MFL)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#297 Postby fci » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:The local news showed a tornado touching down live in West Palm. THe Kravis cam picked it up as it was forming.

Saw that.
It was incredible seeing it form LIVE
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#298 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:40 pm

fci wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The local news showed a tornado touching down live in West Palm. THe Kravis cam picked it up as it was forming.

Saw that.
It was incredible seeing it form LIVE



with the surface low/circ deepening much farther north, wsw of marco island the tornado threat should increase over florida now.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#299 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:50 pm

Though I would not call it tropical at this point... buuuttt...
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#300 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:06 pm

Yeah easy to see the low on radar WNW of Key West heading ENE. Seems further north than models had it.
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