ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

[marco_islander]

any change in the outlook for this system since this afternoon? I'm still a weather newbie, and trying to look at all the different models and figure it out for myself, but I appreciate all of your wisdom and insight on other aspects of the weather that might factor in to the development and path of 93L in the next few days. Has anything changed since this morning? Thanks so much.

[Sciencerocks]

If this thing ever forms and that is starting to look doubtful it will be very weak.

What big sheared mess!

[Frank2]

Weekend/second front soon approaching but all convection with 93 over land this morning and very sheared. Seems GFS had it right - whatever is down there will be pulled north with front by later Saturday (perhaps a weak low), but that's all...

[gatorcane]

A lot more convection now over SW Carib:

[SFLcane]

Down to 20-40% for abvious reasons.. door closing quickly on this season if it’s not already closed. Conus impacts that is

[TheStormExpert]

The models showing development in the E-PAC were likely right all along. Even the NHC is now acknowledging the E-PAC off of the west coast of Central America with a 10%/30% as of the 8am TWO. You’re probably right SFLcane, this season is winding down FAST.

Fortunately at the moment it doesn’t look like we’ll be seeing that major hurricane everyone (including I) was expecting during a La Niña like season in the Western Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

I think this is what the end of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season looks like...

[TheStormExpert]

I think this is what the end of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season looks like...

I’ll take this over what we saw 12 years ago yesterday.

[CourierPR]

The convection with 93L is quite robust this morning. Bastardi tweeted that named or entrained, it will be trouble for Florida and points north.

[jlauderdal]

The convection with 93L is quite robust this morning. Bastardi tweeted that named or entrained, it will be trouble for Florida and points north.

trouble sounds way aggressive, its going to rain and be breezy

[latitude_20]

Winds straight out of the north and 66F here in Tulum, MX. Finally a break from the heat!

[stormlover2013]

good strong cold front coming this weekend, fronts are getting stronger and stronger, still have a month left for hurricane season but I think the season is coming to a end, could see a weak weak trop storm but a hurricane I feel is out of the picture.

[xironman]

You have to be careful about calling the end of the season. As the 500mb in the mid latitudes gets going they can pick up, entrain and enhance tropical systems, i.e. the No-Name Storm in 91 and of course Sandy.

[CyclonicFury]

You have to be careful about calling the end of the season. As the 500mb in the mid latitudes gets going they can pick up, entrain and enhance tropical systems, i.e. the No-Name Storm in 91 and of course Sandy.

Yeah. The season ends on November 30, not when “fronts get stronger.” While strong fronts often is an indication that the end of the season is near, it’s not officially over for over a month.

[tolakram]

Don't forget Wrong Way Lenny. Hopefully the US impact season is over, but the frequency of fronts can change on a dime so I'm not 100% confident it's all over for the US, just hopeful.

[Blown Away]

[weathaguyry]

Even though the NHC dropped development chances to 40%, there is still some very strong convection

[rickybobby]

According to wesh 2 looks like it's going to be a rain maker. Could go 100 miles more north closer to central Florida or 100 miles more south and it misses Florida.

[gatorcane]

I thought it looked like it was becoming a little more organized and NHC confirmed:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America
have become a little better organized over the past few hours. Close
proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for
the next day or so. However, environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for the system to become more organized later this
week as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold
front will likely prevent further development by Sunday. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of
Central America and Cuba during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[AJC3]

An interesting aspect of the potential TC-genesis from 93L is that there is a significant northerly post-frontal wind surge now pushing across the Yucatan and NW Caribbean that will be entrained into its embryonic circulation. This is likely to be a "double-edged sword", so to speak. On the one hand these types of surges have been known to boost cyclonic vorticity, helping the system spin up (e.g. Typhoon Vamei, and a number of " tehuantepecer" gap wind events on the EPAC side). On the other hand, is the fact that this surge is carrying a modified post-frontal air mass southward, which isn't particularly helpful form a thermodynamic standpoint. We'll see how this plays out.

I'm thinking we'll see a TC eventually come out of this, however, whatever does form, I don't see it getting terribly strong, and more than likely weakening very quickly once it gets north of the latitude of Cuba.