ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Looks less organized than it was last evening. Certainly no TD now, and no more TS winds.

The closed circulation they just found this morning is more detailed than what the recon found yesterday afternoon when it was nothing more than a broad circulation, yes they have not found TS winds but they yet have to go out further away from the "broader" coc.

[AdamFirst]

Tropical Storm Warning issued for the Atlantic coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet south to Big Pine Key.

There's your warnings...even though it's sea-based and not land-based.

[NDG]

Convection increasing near the new closed circulation recon found to the south of the Isle of Pines.

[Jelff]

Below is a Google + GIS map link with the "Watches and warnings" layer 'on top' and therefore clickable.
If you click on a solid color the popup includes a link to the the NWS notice.

The dark green is a high wind watch with gusts to 55 Sunday night.

https://mappingsupport.com/p/gmap4.php? ... ricane.txt

[jlauderdal]

Tropical Storm Warning issued for the Atlantic coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet south to Big Pine Key.

There's your warnings...even though it's sea-based and not land-based.

that wont satisfy the masses, they want something on land...looks like it will have to be a precip watch/warning later today

[NDG]

Convection continue to blossom near the just found LLC to south of the Isle of Pines.

[NDG]

Bigger picture of where they are closing off the COC.

[gatorcane]

Yep definitely on an organizing trend again, center right in the middle of deep convection

[jlauderdal]

Tropical Storm Warning issued for the Atlantic coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet south to Big Pine Key.

There's your warnings...even though it's sea-based and not land-based.

that wont satisfy the masses, they want something on land...looks like it will have to be a precip watch/warning later today

NWS hoists a flood watch

[AdamFirst]

Flood Watches now in effect for Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River and Okeechobee Counties. 2-4 inches widespread, with up to 6 inches possible in areas. Lesser amounts farther north.

[AdamFirst]

Also, funny thing: It'll likely be windier across Peninsular Florida tomorrow after frontal passage than it will be throughout the day today or tonight as PTC 18 passes to our east.

[NDG]

Cayman Islands now reporting Tropical Storm force winds.

Conditions at: MWCR observed 28 October 2017 14:40 UTC
Temperature: 24.0°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.79 inches Hg (1009.0 mb)
Winds: from the SSW (210 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.2 m/s)
Visibility: 0.62 miles (1.00 km)
Ceiling: 1200 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1200 feet AGL
Present Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))
MWCR 281440Z 21035KT 1000 +TSRA OVC012CB 24/24 Q1009

[jlauderdal]

Also, funny thing: It'll likely be windier across Peninsular Florida tomorrow after frontal passage than it will be throughout the day today or tonight as PTC 18 passes to our east.

btw, severe weather isnt out of the question either

[NDG]

..AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

[fci]

Flood Watches now in effect for Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River and Okeechobee Counties. 2-4 inches widespread, with up to 6 inches possible in areas. Lesser amounts farther north.

And now TS Watch from Keys through Dade County

[joey]

new watches are up

[NDG]

Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the low pressure system located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined low-level circulation
center. Satellite imagery also shows more central deep convection
has developed and persisted in the inner-core region since
yesterday. Based on these data, the disturbance has been upgraded
to Tropical Depression Eighteen.

With the recent redevelopment of the inner-core region this morning,
the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/19 kt. The global
models remain in excellent agreement on an approaching frontal
system and deep mid-tropospheric trough accelerating the cyclone
north-northeastward across west-central Cuba today, followed by a
motion toward the northeast tonight and Sunday, with the system
passing about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern United
States in 36-48 hours. The new NHC forecast track is essentially
just an update of the previous advisory due to the good agreement in
the global and consensus models, which lie along or just a tad to
the west of the official forecast track.

The vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone is expected to remain
somewhat favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours
or so, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm by
tonight. Thereafter, baroclinic processes associated with the
aforementioned frontal system are forecast to induce some additional
strengthening before the cyclone merges with the frontal system
and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours. Dissipation is
expected by 72 hours when the system is located over the far North
Atlantic.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the forecast track of the center lies about 35 miles
southeast of the Upper Florida Keys and extreme southeast Florida
and most of the winds are expected to remain east of the center,
only a slight deviation to the west of the expected track or an
increase in the size of the wind field could bring tropical-storm-
force winds across these land areas. For that reason, a tropical
storm watch has been issued for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 82.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 23.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.6N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 31.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[jlauderdal]

Flood Watches now in effect for Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River and Okeechobee Counties. 2-4 inches widespread, with up to 6 inches possible in areas. Lesser amounts farther north.

And now TS Watch from Keys through Dade County

shutters stay in storage for broward and north,

[chaser1]

A large rain shield is approaching Naples to Sarasota right now; may well be the extent of moderate precip they receive from this event. I could very well see spots from Key Largo to Cutler Bay to Downtown Miami, up to perhaps Ft. Lauderdale getting one massive dumping tonight

[chaser1]

Just realized, there was no reported lowest pressure reported in the discussion. Is this still at 1009mb?