ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#81 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:50 am

wxman57 wrote:Yep, development chances not looking so good. Cold front has reached the NW Caribbean. This low will form along the front and really explode offshore southern New England late this weekend into early next week.


Sooo care to share rain totals for SFL? 1-3 inches perhaps
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#82 Postby boca » Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:50 am

Will we still get rain in South Florida out of this or will this miss us to the east?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#83 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:31 pm

boca wrote:Will we still get rain in South Florida out of this or will this miss us to the east?


You'll get precip from the passing cold front, regardless. Perhaps 1-3", at least according to the 12Z Euro.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#84 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:54 pm

Yes, this will not become a tropical entity. But both the GFS and Euro have a rather nasty coast hugging Nor Easter developing out of this .
The most interesting is the 12z Euro which has the low clipping NC then pinwheeling into Metro NYC.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#85 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:23 pm

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#86 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:05 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Yes, this will not become a tropical entity. But both the GFS and Euro have a rather nasty coast hugging Nor Easter developing out of this .
The most interesting is the 12z Euro which has the low clipping NC then pinwheeling into Metro NYC.


You might to check the models page before making an absolutist statement. Most models show a 50 to 60 mph T.S. granted not much but it's not a non tropical entity
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#87 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:33 pm

Image
Starting to build some convection again, let's see if it can sustain...
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#88 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:27 pm

It's 40% now. 5 day outlook remains at 40% as well.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from northern Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras northeastward across the Cayman Islands and Jamaica
to eastern Cuba are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development on Friday and Saturday as the system moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level
winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions
less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system
is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two.
These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of
South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern
Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#89 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:48 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Yes, this will not become a tropical entity. But both the GFS and Euro have a rather nasty coast hugging Nor Easter developing out of this .
The most interesting is the 12z Euro which has the low clipping NC then pinwheeling into Metro NYC.


If the WPC QPF map is accurate this is going to be a heavy rain event for both south florida and New England. Whether this ever gets a name it seems like an impactful event, especially up north where a wide area of heavy rain potential is presently depicted.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#90 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:01 pm

psyclone wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:Yes, this will not become a tropical entity. But both the GFS and Euro have a rather nasty coast hugging Nor Easter developing out of this .
The most interesting is the 12z Euro which has the low clipping NC then pinwheeling into Metro NYC.


If the WPC QPF map is accurate this is going to be a heavy rain event for both south florida and New England. Whether this ever gets a name it seems like an impactful event, especially up north where a wide area of heavy rain potential is presently depicted.


Is the Northeast impact directly related to this low though?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#91 Postby MahFL » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:29 pm

Yes I believe it's the low that 93L forms. - Edit, actually now looks like a separate low forms from the trough but steals some energy from 93L.
Last edited by MahFL on Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#92 Postby rog » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:38 pm

Yes it is. The trough over the upper Midwest and 93L are suppose to merge and than explode into a significant nor'easter.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#93 Postby blp » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:43 pm

Looks like it is finally starting now. Nice blowup. As the EPAC system moves away this should start to consolidate.

Image
Last edited by blp on Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#94 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:43 pm

Looks likely a heavy rainfall event is in store across SFL..

 https://twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/923702125619585024


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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#95 Postby MahFL » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:45 pm

Someone was actually calling it a SouthEaster, as it might go pretty far west and will bring tropical warmth.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#96 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:52 am

Buoy 42057 reported a pressure of 1006mb a couple of hours ago, 2-3 mb drop from 24 hrs ago.

0 27 4:00 am SE 17.5 23.3 - - - - 29.71 -0.04 81.3 84.6 78.8

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

06z GFS shows it becoming tropical storm Phillipe.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#97 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:20 am

This is the best the system has looked in its lifetime (in my opinion). Convection continues to fire in a region of enhanced low-level vorticity associated with the tail end of the front.

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#98 Postby MahFL » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:22 am

Now the GFS shows a low going out to sea and a separate low forming from the trough going to the NE.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#99 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:32 am

8am NHC- Up to 60% TD could form soon.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Discussion

#100 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:00 am

Image
Definitely getting the "look" ATM...
Image
NHC's placement of 93L in 48 hours...
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