ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

[toad strangler]

If this moves too fast, does that mean all of this warm water ended up not producing a major October monster?

Nope. And that should be a lesson on how warm water is overrated with regards to major hurricane potential.

I don't think it's overrated. You just need atmospheric support lol .... if you have the set up above, you need the fuel beneath....

[AxaltaRacing24]

If this moves too fast, does that mean all of this warm water ended up not producing a major October monster?

Nope. And that should be a lesson on how warm water is overrated with regards to major hurricane potential.

I don't think it's overrated. You just need atmospheric support lol .... if you have the set up above, you need the fuel beneath....

Agreed. Warm water is definitely not overrated. If you have a TC in warm water with little shear, it will likely blow up. It's not like we have never seen it before in this area.

[wxman57]

I don't buy the two worst tropical models (CMC and NAVGEM/NOGAPS). Both the GFS & EC indicate more of a weak, sheared frontal low developing Friday and gone by Sunday. May or may not be name-worthy. Don't see a big threat to Florida. Rain associated with the frontal passage Saturday evening. Upper-level winds out of the SW-WSW at 50-70 kts across southern Florida by Friday.

Not exactly a low-shear environment from the northern Caribbean through Florida:

[stormlover2013]

I think the season is basically over, Cold fronts coming in stronger and stronger and more frequent, could see a depression but this was one helluva season for the record books!!!!!!! time to start talking about 2018 season should be interesting!!!

[gatorcane]

I don't buy the two worst tropical models (CMC and NAVGEM/NOGAPS). Both the GFS & EC indicate more of a weak, sheared frontal low developing Friday and gone by Sunday. May or may not be name-worthy. Don't see a big threat to Florida. Rain associated with the frontal passage Saturday evening. Upper-level winds out of the SW-WSW at 50-70 kts across southern Florida by Friday.

Not exactly a low-shear environment from the northern Caribbean through Florida:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_11.png

Wxman57 I don't disagree with you that there will be shear but the timeframe for any Southern FL / Keys threat would be further out (for example 114 hours below) and the GFS shows an anticyclone trying to nudge north near Cuba ahead of the next cold front.

[CyclonicFury]

I think the season is basically over, Cold fronts coming in stronger and stronger and more frequent, could see a depression but this was one helluva season for the record books!!!!!!! time to start talking about 2018 season should be interesting!!!

Maybe for the U.S. that is true. But I would be very shocked if we don’t see Philippe before the end of the season.

[galaxy401]

I think the season is basically over, Cold fronts coming in stronger and stronger and more frequent, could see a depression but this was one helluva season for the record books!!!!!!! time to start talking about 2018 season should be interesting!!!

Don’t talk about this until November 30 please.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m far more interested in the 2 cool fronts expected within the next 7 days over this. May make a run at a brief TC.

[CyclonicFury]

I think the season is basically over, Cold fronts coming in stronger and stronger and more frequent, could see a depression but this was one helluva season for the record books!!!!!!! time to start talking about 2018 season should be interesting!!!

Don’t talk about this until November 30 please.

I think people are often too quick to say the season is over just because a shear map is full of reds or cold fronts are getting stronger. The season ends on November 30, if you track the entire Atlantic basin like me. Sometimes you even get mid-latitude formation in December. Chances of a U.S. hurricane are low at this point but the season as a whole isn’t over yet.

[ronjon]

I’m far more interested in the 2 cool fronts expected within the next 7 days over this. May make a run at a brief TC.

Ummm....our two dynamic models (HWRF and HMON) have 93L at 980 mb and sub-960 mb within 5 days. i think there's good potential for this to make a run at a hurricane in the western caribbean. Afterward, as it heads north of Cuba is when shear should weaken it.

[SFLcane]

I’m far more interested in the 2 cool fronts expected within the next 7 days over this. May make a run at a brief TC.

Ummm....our two dynamic models (HWRF and HMON) have 93L at 980 mb and sub-960 mb within 5 days. i think there's good potential for this to make a run at a hurricane in the western caribbean. Afterward, as it heads north of Cuba is when shear should weaken it.

[AutoPenalti]

I think the season is basically over, Cold fronts coming in stronger and stronger and more frequent, could see a depression but this was one helluva season for the record books!!!!!!! time to start talking about 2018 season should be interesting!!!

Season ends November 30th, not today.

We may still get some home-brews, so I wouldn’t call it a season finale until then.

[gatorcane]

Convection on the increase. Don't forget the UKMET develops this and barely misses SE Florida with some west shifts the past couple of runs. I think we all forget how bad intensity forecasting is. Remember when the GFS showed a TD/wave into LA for Nate just 4 days out or so? The track is also not set in stone this far out. It is easy to forget how much shifting can happen still.

[stormlover2013]

man cold front are getting strong and stronger and the shear is, I could see a tropical storm but will just be rain makers if we get any other name system, just by looking at the pattern

[AdamFirst]

Also looking forward to the stark cool down for the Florida peninsula after the frontal passage. Hopefully this amounts only to a little extra rain and maybe a stiff breeze.

[NotSparta]

I don't buy the two worst tropical models (CMC and NAVGEM/NOGAPS). Both the GFS & EC indicate more of a weak, sheared frontal low developing Friday and gone by Sunday. May or may not be name-worthy. Don't see a big threat to Florida. Rain associated with the frontal passage Saturday evening. Upper-level winds out of the SW-WSW at 50-70 kts across southern Florida by Friday.

Not exactly a low-shear environment from the northern Caribbean through Florida:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_11.png

Wxman57 I don't disagree with you that there will be shear but the timeframe for any Southern FL / Keys threat would be further out (for example 114 hours below) and the GFS shows an anticyclone trying to nudge north near Cuba ahead of the next cold front.

https://s1.postimg.org/17udmdz1sf/gfs_shear_watl_20.png

That would be quite the outflow jet

[Michele B]

Also looking forward to the stark cool down for the Florida peninsula after the frontal passage. Hopefully this amounts only to a little extra rain and maybe a stiff breeze.

May not be a TC by Saturday, but I need it to NOT dump boatloads of rain on us (SW FL) this Saturday! We've got a huge event planned.

DANG!!!!

[stormlover2013]

I said we could see a depression or weak trop storm, I just don't see anything strong with all these fronts, the fronts are also getting stronger...but hey been a crazy season so you never know.

[TheStormExpert]

I said we could see a depression or weak trop storm, I just don't see anything strong with all these fronts, the fronts are also getting stronger...but hey been a crazy season so you never know.

Yes it’s been a crazy season but things have settled down quite a bit this month, more so than you’d expect in a La Niña like season.

[johngaltfla]

The cool air is here finally. Other than post-Irma period, this is the first time I've had my windows open since last May. Hopefully the GOM starts to cool down over this week and next.