ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Just realized, there was no reported lowest pressure reported in the discussion. Is this still at 1009mb?

1005mb is what the recon found.

[caneman]

Tropical Storm Warning issued for the Atlantic coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet south to Big Pine Key.

There's your warnings...even though it's sea-based and not land-based.

that wont satisfy the masses, they want something on land...looks like it will have to be a precip watch/warning later today

What are you taking about? If it's a t.d. or t.s. and there is a likelihood of a landfall from an llc, of course you would issue warnings. I'm on the west coast of Florida so I have no skin in the game other than heavy rain heading this way. Now with what looks like a new center, it may end up more East but it didn't look that way last night or This morning per models

[chaser1]

Odd as it is, the GFS is still insisting on continued deepening and a Florida Keys/Coastal Miami Dade landfall close to or shortly after 0Z this eve. In spite of this not appearing as a significant wind event, I'd almost think NHC would have little choice to upgrade some of their Watches, to Warnings (and soon). On the other hand, the orientation of "future Phillipe" already appears on satellite to be moving NNE so I'd guess that the GFS is continuing to be overly fast in the system's motion thus implying that the mid level flow up to that time is still more southerly still.

[NDG]

Odd as it is, the GFS is still insisting on continued deepening and a Florida Keys/Coastal Miami Dade landfall close to or shortly after 0Z this eve. In spite of this not appearing as a significant wind event, I'd almost think NHC would have little choice to upgrade some of their Watches, to Warnings (and soon). On the other hand, the orientation of "future Phillipe" already appears on satellite to be moving NNE so I'd guess that the GFS is continuing to be overly fast in the system's motion thus implying that the mid level flow up to that time is still more southerly still.

The 12z GFS was initialized wrong, they went by the old circulation further west of the new LLC.

[chaser1]

Guesses on highest 36 hour total rainfall amounts from any point in Florida from this event? I'll guess 7.25" somewhere in Southernmost Miami-Dade county.

[chaser1]

Guesses on highest 36 hour total rainfall amounts from any point in Florida from this event? I'll guess 7.25" somewhere in Southernmost Miami-Dade county.

... or for that matter, any guess on highest induced snowfall that'll occur in Maine as a result from this event LOL?

[wxman57]

Looks less organized than it was last evening. Certainly no TD now, and no more TS winds.

The closed circulation they just found this morning is more detailed than what the recon found yesterday afternoon when it was nothing more than a broad circulation, yes they have not found TS winds but they yet have to go out further away from the "broader" coc.

I think it was more organized about 6-8 hours after yesterday afternoon's recon. Probably was a TS then, but it weakened overnight. I think it's questionable as to whether the circulation is organized enough to be classified as a TD. Not much of a wind threat to Florida, just rain.

[chaser1]

Wait a second??? I've seen storms throwing out arc clouds, but there's a fast "inward" approaching arc cloud in the N.W. quadrant? That certainly can't be a good sign for the system's overall health.

[NDG]

Interesting feature west of Key West as if another low is forming, stealing some of the inflow to the north of TD 18.

[floridasun78]

rain here coming heavy here by miami airport this only start good day stay home

[joey]

Interesting feature west of Key West as if another low is forming, stealing some of the inflow to the north of TD 18.

Yep i seen that they just might joun together and head east by tonight imo lots of rain for fl coming i say easy 6 inches

[NDG]

Radar loop of the feature west of Key West.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting feature west of Key West as if another low is forming, stealing some of the inflow to the north of TD 18.

Yep, and it appears to be propagating the whole rain shield a bit further North.

[joey]

Interesting feature west of Key West as if another low is forming, stealing some of the inflow to the north of TD 18.

And that wasnt in play now is maybe see some changes. At 5 further north ?

Yep, and it appears to be propagating the whole rain shield a bit further North.

[Nimbus]

Local chance of precipitation forecast for many west coast Florida communities is a little off at the moment. With the LLC adding to the frontal winds on its southeast side we might see tropical storm force gusts near landfall on the west coast.

[blp]

Interesting feature west of Key West as if another low is forming, stealing some of the inflow to the north of TD 18.

And that wasnt in play now is maybe see some changes. At 5 further north ?

Yep, and it appears to be propagating the whole rain shield a bit further North.

I think that feature is going to tug TD18 further North and consolidate with this area. That is why I think GFS and Euro have this further North over S. Fla

[NDG]

I'm starting to see some rotation on some of these cells starting to move in towards SE FL.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...

...South Florida/Florida Keys...
Tropical Depression 18 is expected to gradually strengthen and
potentially become a Tropical Storm by tonight as it moves generally
north/northeastward -- reference NHC forecasts for the latest
details. Along and ahead of this system, a moist maritime air mass
with lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints will continue to spread
northward across southern Florida. Meanwhile, low-level hodograph
length and curvature should gradually increase through the
afternoon. This scenario will support the possibility of at least
transient supercells with the potential for a couple of tornadoes
across the Florida Keys and/or the far southern portions of the
Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Once the tropical low
passes east of the Florida Straits early Sunday, any near-land
tornado risk will diminish.

[joey]

I'm starting to see some rotation on some of these cells starting to move in towards SE FL.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...

...South Florida/Florida Keys...
Tropical Depression 18 is expected to gradually strengthen and
potentially become a Tropical Storm by tonight as it moves generally
north/northeastward -- reference NHC forecasts for the latest
details. Along and ahead of this system, a moist maritime air mass
with lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints will continue to spread
northward across southern Florida. Meanwhile, low-level hodograph
length and curvature should gradually increase through the
afternoon. This scenario will support the possibility of at least
transient supercells with the potential for a couple of tornadoes
across the Florida Keys and/or the far southern portions of the
Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Once the tropical low
passes east of the Florida Straits early Sunday, any near-land
tornado risk will diminish.

And its still sw of cuba right? Ty

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
118 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
North central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 145 PM EDT

* At 118 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Westchester, or over South Miami, moving northwest
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
University Park around 135 PM EDT.
Doral, Sweetwater, Medley, Fountainbleau and Tamiami around 145 PM
EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Fiu
South Campus, Tamiami Fairgrounds and Westwood Lakes.

[CrazyC83]

How will the NHC manage this if the system actually remains distinct all the way to the Northeast?