ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15470
Age: 35
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Chicago.... definately need to be back in the action..
Contact:

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#281 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:28 pm

Looking less and less tropical by the hour..
0 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5470
Age: 30
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#282 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:43 pm

Philippe may be transitioning to an extratropical system and merging with a baroclinic non-tropical low in the SE GOM. Looking like a hybrid storm similar to 2001's Gabrielle as it also had a lot of baroclinic forcing.
1 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3066
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#283 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 4:55 pm

this type system you see late oct not looking good system like aug storms
0 likes   

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1146
Age: 15
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Sandy Devastation Area, NY

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#284 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:05 pm

It's looking like it's going to be a hefty storm for us in the Northeast, we're under a High Wind Watch, and a Flash Flood Watch, is it a coincidence that this on the 5 year anniversary of Sandy, or not?

:spam:
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12'

User avatar
idaknowman
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 14
Age: 59
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:28 am
Location: Cutler Bay, Fl

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#285 Postby idaknowman » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:10 pm

Since South Florida is now in the cone, why isn't there a tropical storm Warning?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6635
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#286 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:13 pm

idaknowman wrote:Since South Florida is now in the cone, why isn't there a tropical storm Warning?


see the thread about what the cone means
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20355
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#287 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:25 pm

The local news showed a tornado touching down live in West Palm. THe Kravis cam picked it up as it was forming.
1 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3066
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#288 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:46 pm

look dry air could over south fl after midnight look rain going move to east of south fl
0 likes   

User avatar
beoumont
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 405
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:13 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#289 Postby beoumont » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:51 pm

weathaguyry wrote:It's looking like it's going to be a hefty storm for us in the Northeast, we're under a High Wind Watch, and a Flash Flood Watch, is it a coincidence that this on the 5 year anniversary of Sandy, or not?

:spam:


Not a coincidence. The event is preordained, in the book of revolutions.

In actuality, all (organized) weather systems and events are a coincidence of meteorological factors.
Last edited by beoumont on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:15 pm, edited 3 times in total.
1 likes   
List of 78 tropical cyclones intercepted :
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 194
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: Kenneth City, FL ↔︎ Rölanda, Västra Götaland County, Sweden

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#290 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:52 pm

Shell Mound wrote:I'm struggling to find evidence of a closed circulation at the surface on either radar or satellite. The system looks more like a broad surface trough (low) with gradient-induced gales than a tropical cyclone. It's similar to Nicole (2010) and especially Colin (2016). At best, there is a broad area of vorticity with little evidence of a fully closed, defined circulation. Notably, I see little convergence in and near the estimated location of the "center." Philippe also does not appear to be fully tropical, given its proximity to dry air and a non-tropical low. Baroclinic forcing seems to have taken over, and all I see is a sharp trough axis on GOES-16 loops. I'm not so sure that this deserves a name at this point, though of course the Hurricane Center is the final arbiter.

Just to illustrate what I am referring to, since some people prefer visuals or are visually oriented:

Image

Again, these are but my own interpretations of the situation, not official. Just my own thoughts!

Not trying to sound superior, just illustrating—the mods decide 8-)
1 likes   
TAMPA BAY: Home of the Tocobaga! ~Tracking weather since 1992~ Not a meteorologist. Only rely on official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Weather Service (NWS). | March '93 Superstorm | Gordon '94, Irene '99, Frances & Jeanne '04, Katrina & Wilma '05, Irma '17 | ET, TS, H

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3066
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#291 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:02 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:I'm struggling to find evidence of a closed circulation at the surface on either radar or satellite. The system looks more like a broad surface trough (low) with gradient-induced gales than a tropical cyclone. It's similar to Nicole (2010) and especially Colin (2016). At best, there is a broad area of vorticity with little evidence of a fully closed, defined circulation. Notably, I see little convergence in and near the estimated location of the "center." Philippe also does not appear to be fully tropical, given its proximity to dry air and a non-tropical low. Baroclinic forcing seems to have taken over, and all I see is a sharp trough axis on GOES-16 loops. I'm not so sure that this deserves a name at this point, though of course the Hurricane Center is the final arbiter.

Just to illustrate what I am referring to, since some people prefer visuals or are visually oriented:

Image

Again, these are but my own interpretations of the situation, not official. Just my own thoughts!

Not trying to sound superior, just illustrating—the mods decide 8-)

i do see dry air getting pull west of ts my thinking few hour rain stop in south fl and Bahamas could see stormy night
0 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5117
Age: 51
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#292 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:17 pm

Just lost power, almost no wind but heavy rain
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15470
Age: 35
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Chicago.... definately need to be back in the action..
Contact:

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#293 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:20 pm

THe reformed circ is clearly defined wnw/nw of Key west on radar.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3066
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#294 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:20 pm

jlauderdal wrote:Just lost power, almost no wind but heavy rain

hope come back soon
0 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5117
Age: 51
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#295 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:31 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Just lost power, almost no wind but heavy rain

hope come back soon

Thanks...no lightning, grid is weak from irma, rain has stopped, i expect restoration by 10.
0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2484
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#296 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:31 pm

A wind gust to 75mph was reported in West Palm, most likely associated with a tornado.

SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT MESONET SITE FHCHS NEAR INTERSECTION OF FOREST HILL BLVD AND INTERSTATE 95 MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 75 MPH. LIKELY ASSOCIATED WIT (MFL)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3178
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#297 Postby fci » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:The local news showed a tornado touching down live in West Palm. THe Kravis cam picked it up as it was forming.

Saw that.
It was incredible seeing it form LIVE
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15470
Age: 35
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Chicago.... definately need to be back in the action..
Contact:

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#298 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:40 pm

fci wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The local news showed a tornado touching down live in West Palm. THe Kravis cam picked it up as it was forming.

Saw that.
It was incredible seeing it form LIVE



with the surface low/circ deepening much farther north, wsw of marco island the tornado threat should increase over florida now.
0 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15470
Age: 35
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Chicago.... definately need to be back in the action..
Contact:

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#299 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:50 pm

Though I would not call it tropical at this point... buuuttt...
0 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20355
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#300 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:06 pm

Yeah easy to see the low on radar WNW of Key West heading ENE. Seems further north than models had it.
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest