ATL: PHILIPPE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#321 Postby joey » Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:53 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
joey wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:the grid is very weak from irma, heavy rain knocked out my power, wind was minimal at the time, maybe 15 mph


Tropical storm conditions for broward tonight what time
i dont know if we ever see that type of wind, the low appears appears that it will cme very close in the next few hours but again i dont think any ts type wind has been reported..probably get mre wind behind the front


so this is yet to happen

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then showers likely. Low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#322 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:06 pm

One of the worst looking tropical storms I've ever seen. I don't think there will be an identifiable center by tomorrow afternoon. Barely has one now. Shear is only going to be increasing. The big impact on New England will be the large cold-core low, not Philippe.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#323 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:17 pm

marco_islander wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
marco_islander wrote:what is it with Marco Island attracting all these storms... Wilma, Irma and now this (even though it's minor- thank goodness!)


Fay also made landfall at that location in 2008.



I don't even remember that. Yikes! That doesn't bode well.
So much for local legend that Marco Island is adverse to storms...

There have been a number of significant hits on or very close to Marco Island since records began in 1851, of which the subjective top five, pre-Irma, are listed in red:

  1. 1870 (20 October) — Category 1 hurricane passed overhead with 80-knot (90-mph) winds
  2. 1876 (20 October) — Category 2 hurricane passed to the east, hit Everglades City with 90-knot (105-mph) winds; storm surge of up to ten feet on Biscayne Bay and in Everglades backcountry
  3. 1894 (25 September) — Category 2 hurricane passed to the west, hit Punta Rassa with 90-knot (105-mph) winds
  4. 1910 (18 October) — Sprawling, infamous storm in Ten Thousand Islands lore (Edgar J. Watson, Peter Matthiessen's Killing Mister Watson, etc.); produced ten-foot storm surge on Marco Island, hit Punta Rassa as a strong Category 2 hurricane with 95-knot (110-mph) winds; settlers at Chokoloskee, Goodland, etc. climbed trees to survive the surge
  5. 1924 (21 October) — Drenching Category-1 storm with 80-knot (90-mph) winds; eye passed over Marco Island and Caxambas with 975-mb pressure; produced twenty-three inches of rain in twenty-four hours on Marco Island
  6. 1926 (18 September) — Major hurricane crossed from Miami to Sanibel and Captiva islands; produced storm surge of eight to ten feet at Chokoloskee, Everglades City, and Marco Island, even though eye passed to the north; major flooding in Southwest Florida
  7. 1935 (3 September) — Most intense U.S. hurricane on record; headed northwest from the Keys; eyewall struck Marco Island with 145-knot (165-mph) winds while eye remained just offshore; extremely severe wind damage to the Keys, Ten Thousand Islands, and Southwest Florida
  8. 1935 (5 November) — Crossed from Miami to the Gulf of Mexico, passing just south of Marco Island with 70-knot (80-mph) winds
  9. 1941 (6 October) — Crossed from Homestead to Sanibel and Captiva islands; produced six feet of storm surge at Everglades City, Chokoloskee, and Marco Island; center passed north of those locations with 75-knot (85-mph) winds
  10. 1960 (10 September) — Donna, one of the most devastating hurricanes in Southwest Florida on record, moved northwest from the Keys to Goodland, just east of Marco Island (Category 3 at landfall in SW FL, 105 knots/120 mph); eyewall affected Everglades City; eye hit Marco Island, Goodland, and Naples; storm surge of up to twelve feet in Marco Island, Everglades City, and Naples
  11. 2005 (24 October) — Wilma, of course
The myth that Marco Island *escapes* big storms probably derives from the old Calusa (Native Amerindian) shell mounds that populate the Ten Thousand Islands, Charlotte Harbor, and the rest of coastal Southwest Florida. Both the Indians and the white settlers built and/or used the elevated shell heaps as a barrier (berm) to protect lives and property against storm surge. For some reason, during the twentieth century arose the notion that the mounds somehow steer storms *away* from Marco Island and other mound-populated areas, which history proves was never the case (after all, the Indians built the mounds because of the frequency of storm surge).

Anyway, back to Philippe, but multidisciplinary history surely is enlightening. Weather, archaeology, and genealogy meet. 8-) At least Philippe isn't measuring up to any of the storms in this compendium! :D
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:37 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#324 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:20 pm

one guy from ny area saying exphilipe going bad for ny area
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#325 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:31 pm

Looking at the hot mess that Philippe appears to be, it's hard to imagine anything else of much significance could possibly still spin up from the Caribbean or Gulf during these final weeks of the season.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#326 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:48 pm

Given the track it's taken, South Florida should be lucky it's a "hot mess" and not a Hurricane Wilma redux.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#327 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:57 pm

Came closer than predicted...Just warm breezes and light rain here...
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Discussion

#328 Postby marco_islander » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:02 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
marco_islander wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Fay also made landfall at that location in 2008.



I don't even remember that. Yikes! That doesn't bode well.
So much for local legend that Marco Island is adverse to storms...

There have been a number of significant hits on or very close to Marco Island since records began in 1851...
The myth that Marco Island *escapes* big storms probably derives from the old Calusa (Native Amerindian) shell mounds that populate the Ten Thousand Islands, Charlotte Harbor, and the rest of coastal Southwest Florida. Both the Indians and the white settlers built and/or used the elevated shell heaps as a barrier (berm) to protect lives and property against storm surge. For some reason, during the twentieth century arose the notion that the mounds somehow steer storms *away* from Marco Island and other mound-populated areas, which history proves was never the case (after all, the Indians built the mounds because of the frequency of storm surge).

Anyway, back to Philippe, but multidisciplinary history surely is enlightening. Weather, archaeology, and genealogy meet. 8-) At least Philippe isn't measuring up to any of the storms in this compendium! :D


Thanks for that information! I wasn't aware of all that history- I've only been coming here since the late 70's (with my parents) and then moved here full time in 1999. Every hurricane season, we hear the same old story- Marco Island being in a special "cove" and having a extra dose of protection. Next year I'll have some real history to share.

As far as Philippe, I know disorganized storms aren't as interesting to observe, but I'm very glad that this one, given it's swerve towards Florida, couldn't get its act together.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#329 Postby marciacubed » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:02 pm

It is raining pretty hard here in Boynton. Not much wind
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#330 Postby Frank2 » Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:31 am

Thankfully no strong wind here, just a lot of rain. Miami had 5 1/2 feet of rain the past 4 1/2 months. No wonder we are said to have a monsoonal climate...
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#331 Postby Jelff » Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:32 am

Here is a Google + GIS map that shows various kinds of weather stations. To see data collected by a station, click the station and then follow the link in the popup.

Since there are different types of stations, you will see different types of web pages. If the web page has a tab titled “Meteorological Obs” then look there for a wind graph.

https://mappingsupport.com/p/gmap4.php? ... _flood.txt
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#332 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:41 am

Looks like Philippe is already merging with the cold front as it races northward just north of Freeport.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#333 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 29, 2017 8:55 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks like Philippe is already merging with the cold front as it races northward just north of Freeport.


How does a TS landfall in SFL, NHC maps report TS winds over SFL, and no TS warnings?
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#334 Postby MahFL » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:07 am

Blown Away wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks like Philippe is already merging with the cold front as it races northward just north of Freeport.


How does a TS landfall in SFL, NHC maps report TS winds over SFL, and no TS warnings?


Because the TS winds were east of the center, SFL is pretty narrow. Don't focus on the track line...
Also imho the NHC maps over report actual winds, remember it just takes one reading somewhere to be TS strength, other places might get zippo winds.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#335 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:14 am

MahFL wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks like Philippe is already merging with the cold front as it races northward just north of Freeport.


How does a TS landfall in SFL, NHC maps report TS winds over SFL, and no TS warnings?


Because the TS winds were east of the center, SFL is pretty narrow. Don't focus on the track line...
Also imho the NHC maps over report actual winds, remember it just takes one reading somewhere to be TS strength, other places might get zippo winds.


I agree with you, but the agency that issues warnings reported TS winds in SFL...
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#336 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:26 am

Philippe is merging with the front this morning:

Image
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#337 Postby Jelff » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:40 am

If you click this Google + GIS map and then follow the link, you can read the NWS forecast discussion for the zone that you clicked. The red lines mark those discussion zones.

The underlaying layer shows the watches and warnings.

For the map legend, click “Map tips” and then click the legend button.

Each time you open the map or turn on an overlay layer, you will see the most recent data that is hosted on a federal GIS server.

Remember, only the ‘top’ layer is clickable. Don’t know what that means? Please read the map tips.

https://mappingsupport.com/p/gmap4.php? ... _flood.txt
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#338 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:43 am

Would say it is a little farther north than models had it.. lol good old reformations.. :P
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#339 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:59 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Would say it is a little farther north than models had it.. lol good old reformations.. :P


Take a look at yesterday's 12Z EC. It had the low center north of Freeport at 12z today. Pretty good forecast.
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - TROPICAL STORM - Discussion

#340 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 29, 2017 12:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Would say it is a little farther north than models had it.. lol good old reformations.. :P


Take a look at yesterday's 12Z EC. It had the low center north of Freeport at 12z today. Pretty good forecast.


yes however the 12z euro yesterday came through the straights not east/ne across the state exiting out from west palm area..

center clearly reformed well north.. track thinking was the same..
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