ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

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ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#1 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:51 pm

Model information only please


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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#2 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:52 pm

18z GFS and NAVGEM

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#3 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:16 pm

Lol bams taking it into the epac..
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#4 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 23, 2017 9:31 pm

SFLcane wrote:Lol bams taking it into the epac..


That's because they're based off of the Ralph Wiggum GFS
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#5 Postby blp » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:03 pm

108hr see another west shift in the ridge position from 18z. This may make a closer run to Florida.

Looks to be slower than the 18z.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#6 Postby blp » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:12 pm

00z CMC much further west so far over western tip of Cuba.

Also with a big shift in the trough west from 12z.

Looks like models are seeing a slower trough evolution.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#7 Postby Alyono » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:16 pm

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.6N 82.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2017 84 17.6N 82.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 28.10.2017 96 19.8N 82.2W 1001 32
1200UTC 28.10.2017 108 21.9N 81.4W 997 38
0000UTC 29.10.2017 120 24.7N 79.0W 984 57
1200UTC 29.10.2017 132 27.4N 75.4W 978 65
0000UTC 30.10.2017 144 31.9N 71.2W 983 59
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#8 Postby blp » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:21 pm

Alyono wrote:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 17.6N 82.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2017 84 17.6N 82.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 28.10.2017 96 19.8N 82.2W 1001 32
1200UTC 28.10.2017 108 21.9N 81.4W 997 38
0000UTC 29.10.2017 120 24.7N 79.0W 984 57
1200UTC 29.10.2017 132 27.4N 75.4W 978 65
0000UTC 30.10.2017 144 31.9N 71.2W 983 59



That is also a west shift from 12z if not mistaken.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#9 Postby blp » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:52 pm

Ukmet very close to SE Florida now and stronger.

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#10 Postby WeatherHoon » Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:14 am

Virtually no Ensemble support now, but has strong support for the EPAC. :roll:
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#11 Postby WAcyclone » Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:15 am

I hope the delayed data arrives soon.



https://twitter.com/arnpry/status/922733032418689024
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#12 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:46 am

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#13 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:55 am

00Z NAVGEM much stronger. Barely misses South Florida:

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#14 Postby ronjon » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:12 am

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#15 Postby ronjon » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:20 am

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#16 Postby Frank2 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:26 am

Shear forecast - hard to see anything very strong affecting SFL with this overhead:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/cu ... .anim.html
Last edited by Frank2 on Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#17 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:27 am

I wonder if the EPAC “phantom storm” is limiting the models’ (especially the GFS) ability to correctly resolve this system. NHC doesn’t expect anything in the EPAC.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#18 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:21 am

12Z UKMET looks to hit SE FL at 980-990MB so another west shift:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.9N 83.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2017 72 17.1N 83.9W 1005 30
0000UTC 28.10.2017 84 19.4N 83.4W 1001 34
1200UTC 28.10.2017 96 22.3N 82.7W 990 51
0000UTC 29.10.2017 108 25.2N 80.7W 981 61
1200UTC 29.10.2017 120 27.8N 77.2W 989 54
0000UTC 30.10.2017 132 33.1N 72.8W 988 54
1200UTC 30.10.2017 144 42.9N 73.5W 979 48
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#19 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:29 am

No one mentioned it, but the 00Z ECMWF officially shows landfall over Southwestern Florida in five days (00Z/26 October):

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017102400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_6.png
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#20 Postby joey » Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:15 pm

Shell Mound wrote:No one mentioned it, but the 00Z ECMWF officially shows landfall over Southwestern Florida in five days (00Z/26 October):

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017102400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_6.png


yep alot of models as of now are taking this system very close to south fl still needs to be watch might be surprise down the road :uarrow:
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