ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

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Frank2
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#81 Postby Frank2 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:11 pm

True, but 1001 is believable but not the 984, even with the upper high.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#82 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:30 pm

Frank2 wrote:True, but 1001 is believable but not the 984, even with the upper high.

Models haven’t done too well with intensity except in one case with HWRF, who would’ve expected Maria or Irma to reach the categories they reached... this season has been notorious for powerful canes in favorable conditions so I wouldn’t put it to bed just yet.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#83 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:55 pm

here you see last few models runs show now closer to south fl http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=18&year=2017
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#84 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:17 am

06Z GFS

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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#85 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:22 am

06Z GFS ensembles have shifted west:

Image
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#86 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:41 am

The ensemble members all appear to be a tad slow and a bit too far west. Now that a better defined center has been identified I think we'll see these all shift east and north substantially
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#87 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:10 am

chaser1 wrote:The ensemble members all appear to be a tad slow and a bit too far west. Now that a better defined center has been identified I think we'll see these all shift east and north substantially


12z GFS has a landfall in the mid-upper Keys and is 3mb stronger just off the coast of SE Fla.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#88 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:17 am

the models are keeping this distinct until after it hits New England or Canada
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#89 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:32 am

12z HWRF so far has a better handle on TD 18 than the 12z GFS, it forecasted the formation of the LLC like we saw this morning further east quite nicely.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#90 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:44 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
chaser1 wrote:The ensemble members all appear to be a tad slow and a bit too far west. Now that a better defined center has been identified I think we'll see these all shift east and north substantially


12z GFS has a landfall in the mid-upper Keys and is 3mb stronger just off the coast of SE Fla.


Yep, was surprised to see that. In spite of the anticipated weak "north quadrant" wind field, I'd still think that NHC might have to begrudgingly change a couple of their watches, to warnings if satellite verifies any near term northward motion
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#91 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:45 am

Alyono wrote:the models are keeping this distinct until after it hits New England or Canada


Looks like they're gonna get one decent little Nor'easter...... er, "South'easter that is :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#92 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:23 pm

It seems most models actually keep this distinct all the way in now?
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#93 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:06 pm

EC does not. it merges it well before New England
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#94 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:50 pm

GFS a hot mess here. Now it has massive convective feedback for the Hatteras low and has it looking semi-tropical. Philippe appears much weaker this time around as the convective feedback is focused on the other system
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#95 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 29, 2017 1:25 am

ECMWF has a 972mb hurricane hitting Cape Cod

One problem, it has the center east of Florida at 6Z
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Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#96 Postby xironman » Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:02 am

HRRR Shows a hybrid Philippe

Image
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