ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#61 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:07 am

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06Z
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06z Intensity... Moderate TS potential over next 48 hours...
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#62 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:52 am

GFS & HWRF show strongest winds to be E and south of COC with minimal impacts to south FL, windwise.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#63 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:07 am

00Z ECMWF ensembles take this generally through South Florida on a SW to NE trajectory:

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#64 Postby joey » Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:48 am

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#65 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:56 am

12z GFS is stronger than previous runs, as a warm core moderate to strong tropical storm as crosses the Bahamas Sunday morning.

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#66 Postby sunnyday » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:05 am

When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#67 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:09 am

sunnyday wrote:When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?

It’s looking like it might miss S. FL to the south going through the Florida straits.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#68 Postby joey » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:37 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
sunnyday wrote:When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?

It’s looking like it might miss S. FL to the south going through the Florida straits.


maybe not
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_8.png
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#69 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:36 pm

slight north shift with 12Z GEFS:

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#70 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:29 pm

12Z CMC ensembles shift slightly west. 0 to 48 hour animation below with many passing through South Florida and the Keys:

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#71 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:37 pm

12z Euro is still not doing much with it, I am tossing it out the window.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#72 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:53 pm

12Z ECMWF ensembles animation. looks like 93L meets up with the cold front over or near South Florida/Keys:

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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#73 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:38 pm

Another slight west shift with the GFS because it looks to move 93L faster:

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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#74 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:04 pm

another west shift with the GFS ensembles:

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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#75 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:13 pm

18Z NAVGEM landfall in the Keys now:

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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#76 Postby blp » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:52 pm

18z HWRF has a sizeable shift west and now right offshore. Another shift west like that it will be over Miami.

Now down 984mb.

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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#77 Postby Frank2 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:31 pm

Hard to understand where the models are getting this data - considering the system is very poorly organized and shear already present over South Florida is forecast to increase ahead of the front.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#78 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:39 pm

Frank2 wrote:Hard to understand where the models are getting this data - considering the system is very poorly organized and shear already present over South Florida is forecast to increase ahead of the front.


Because the models move the upper anticyclone NE in tandem with 93l. For example:

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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#79 Postby joey » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:39 pm

models have this very close to south fl as this comes off cuba it could bounce right over remember what fay did when she bouced off cuba right to so fl so in watching mode here anything can happen
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#80 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:48 pm

Uptick in in intensity on 00Z:

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