ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#21 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:41 pm

Image
12z GFS not real excited about developing 93L, but seems to move the LLC/energy into SGOM, across the Keys/SFL, and then ENE through the Bahamas... GFS still wanting to develop something in the EPAC...
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#22 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:44 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/6sVgSub.gif
12z GFS not real excited about developing 93L, but seems to move the LLC/energy into SGOM, across the Keys/SFL, and then ENE through the Bahamas... GFS still wanting to develop something in the EPAC...


Yeah it really insists something is going to develop in the EPAC which of course would not allow invest 93l to deepen as much on the model. But I don't buy the EPAC storm and neither does the NHC apparently looking at the TWO for the EPAC which doesn't mention anything about development.

The other thing you will notice about the GFS is that it moves 93L partially inland over the Yucatan for a period of time which further prohibits development despite favorable upper-level conditions over the NW Caribbean. Same for the CMC now.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#23 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:50 pm

ec going with the convective feedback system over the EPAC. This reminds me of Nate
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#24 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:58 pm

Alyono wrote:ec going with the convective feedback system over the EPAC. This reminds me of Nate

Image
12z Euro... You can see the convective feedback, but the energy falling in line with other models moving @NE across Cuba/Fl Straits/Central Bahamas...
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#25 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:18 pm

Alyono wrote:ec going with the convective feedback system over the EPAC. This reminds me of Nate

What’s your thoughts on how this might play out? Do you see a Nate repeat for Florida?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#26 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 24, 2017 2:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET looks to hit SE FL at 980-990MB so another west shift:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.9N 83.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2017 72 17.1N 83.9W 1005 30
0000UTC 28.10.2017 84 19.4N 83.4W 1001 34
1200UTC 28.10.2017 96 22.3N 82.7W 990 51
0000UTC 29.10.2017 108 25.2N 80.7W 981 61
1200UTC 29.10.2017 120 27.8N 77.2W 989 54
0000UTC 30.10.2017 132 33.1N 72.8W 988 54
1200UTC 30.10.2017 144 42.9N 73.5W 979 48


Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#27 Postby Frank2 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:22 pm

Let's hope not, and the shear forecast is for strong shear throughout the forecast cycle...

Frank
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#28 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:52 pm

Strongest run yet from the NAM (yeah I know it is the NAM):

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#29 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:11 pm

Image

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#30 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:12 pm

GFS continues to show the EPAC convective feedbackcane. Not sure if we can get accurate model depictions until it figures this out - I wonder if this is increasing the shear predicted on the GFS and ECMWF operational models. SHIPS model shows shear remaining low to moderate throughout the forecast period. NHC not seeing anything in the EPAC.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#31 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:23 pm

The 12Z EPS has only one of 50 members with a sub 1000 mb TC hitting FL (far south).
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#32 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:31 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z EPS has only one of 50 members with a sub 1000 mb TC hitting FL (far south).

How many total members show any form of development into a TD or TS?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#33 Postby Frank2 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:53 pm

GFS continues to show the EPAC convective feedbackcane. Not sure if we can get accurate model depictions until it figures this out - I wonder if this is increasing the shear predicted on the GFS and ECMWF operational models. SHIPS model shows shear remaining low to moderate throughout the forecast period. NHC not seeing anything in the EPAC.


I think the GFS is correct, because the southern end of the trough is forecast to be over SFL this weekend...
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#34 Postby blp » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:17 pm

I wonder if the normally conservative Ukmet has the right idea on this one since it does not develop the EPAC microcanes.

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#35 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:19 pm

blp wrote:I wonder if the normally conservative Ukmet has the right idea on this one since it does not develop the EPAC microcanes.

Image

Wouldn’t be the first time this season it has gotten something right.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#36 Postby Frank2 » Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:15 pm

Current model cluster. My guess the UK is underestimating the trough:

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#37 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 24, 2017 7:20 pm

Frank2 wrote:Current model cluster. My guess the UK is underestimating the trough:

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots


Close enough regardless for SFL to see impacts possibly in the form of heavy rainfall. Let’s hope that’s all
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#38 Postby joey » Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:10 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Current model cluster. My guess the UK is underestimating the trough:

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots


Close enough regardless for SFL to see impacts possibly in the form of heavy rainfall. Let’s hope that’s all


Be very interesting to see how this one will play out we should know by the weekend right?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#39 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:12 pm

joey wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Current model cluster. My guess the UK is underestimating the trough:

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots


Close enough regardless for SFL to see impacts possibly in the form of heavy rainfall. Let’s hope that’s all


Be very interesting to see how this one will play out we should know by the weekend right?

It’ll be heading out by the weekend. I’m starting to think the models might’ve been onto something with the E-PAC development.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#40 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:45 pm

0z GFS starts EPAC development at 42hrs. Perhaps it was right all along??

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