ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4366
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#41 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:54 pm

0z GFS with much stronger EPAC system and as a result just some weak vorticity in the WC

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4366
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#42 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:00 pm

Looks like whatever is left merges with a front??

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6640
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#43 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:30 pm

UKMET now going for a short fused Long Island Express

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 24.2N 82.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.10.2017 96 24.2N 82.3W 1003 30
1200UTC 29.10.2017 108 27.0N 79.0W 1000 34
0000UTC 30.10.2017 120 36.1N 74.8W 989 52
1200UTC 30.10.2017 132 44.2N 73.0W 976 68
0000UTC 31.10.2017 144 49.8N 73.2W 965 46
1 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#44 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:31 am

Image

Image

Image

Some consensus among guidance.
0 likes   

joey
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:11 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#45 Postby joey » Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:36 am

hello last 12z are bent on making this a fl storm before heading to be a noreaster the question is how strong it will be stay tuned :uarrow:
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20357
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#46 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:44 am

12Z CMC much stronger and big west shift:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20357
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#47 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:14 pm

The ECMWF looks more enthusiastic on potential development this run compared to the previous couple of runs by looking how the 850MB vorticity looks more robust and defined.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20357
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#48 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 25, 2017 1:19 pm

12Z ECMWF 96 hours with a TC passing through the FL Keys/ straits:

Image
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3840
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm
Location: Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#49 Postby Frank2 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 3:32 pm

Latest discussion (past 20 minutes). Miami NWSFO only emphasizing moisture, not models that indicate TC development, probably due to shear (after coordinating with NHC forecaster):

By Saturday, models are showing an area of tropical moisture
moving up from the south, bringing the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are indicating heavy
rainfall accumulations are possible, with area averages of 3 to 4
inches possible, and localized areas possibly seeing higher
totals. This will not be around long, as the next cold front is
forecast to move through on Sunday, causing the tropical moisture
to be pushed out by Sunday late afternoon or evening. This air
mass is not forecast to be quite as cool, but will still bring
lows back down into the 50`s and 60`s by Tuesday morning. Dew
points are also forecast to drop back down into the 40`s and 50`s
for Monday.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20357
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#50 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 25, 2017 4:02 pm

18Z NAM 78 hours:

Image
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3066
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#51 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Oct 25, 2017 4:10 pm

i hope weak td or weak ts i see models are not making it that strong
1 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 890
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#52 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:56 am

0z Euro shows the energy from 93L combining with an extratropical low that forms off the NC coast this weekend, and heads up to New England. I remember no-name storms like this when I was a kid in Connecticut. Kind of New England's version of the Witch of November from Great Lakes storm lore.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6864
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Location: Martin County, Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#53 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:23 am

Image
12z... Bams not in EPAC now... :D
0 likes   
Resident of the Atlantic Basin's Hurricane Hit Capital!

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2999
Age: 40
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#54 Postby SFLcane » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:35 am

Its gonna rain in SFL..

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4945
Age: 25
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Plantation/Sunrise, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#55 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:38 am

:uarrow: I had TWC on in the background getting ready for work, they said 3-5 inches for SFL across Sat and Sun.

Why do these significant weather events always have to happen over the weekend?
1 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 343
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#56 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:13 pm

12z Euro suggests that a run for Philippe is still possible.
0 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6864
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Location: Martin County, Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#57 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:37 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:12z Euro suggests that a run for Philippe is still possible.

Image
12z Euro..
0 likes   
Resident of the Atlantic Basin's Hurricane Hit Capital!

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6864
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Location: Martin County, Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#58 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:01 pm

Image
18z...
Image
18z Intensity... 60 mph TS possible for SFL...
0 likes   
Resident of the Atlantic Basin's Hurricane Hit Capital!

User avatar
sunnyday
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1505
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:16 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#59 Postby sunnyday » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:15 pm

So Fl met says heavy rain there on Sat afternoon and evening. Do any of the models show heavy rain taking longer to get to So Fl and having Sunday as the rainy day instead of Sat?
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3840
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm
Location: Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#60 Postby Frank2 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:35 pm

Miami NWS said it's possible but too soon to know for sure. GFS came up with the Saturday solution and NWS seems to be favoring that idea. Per the IR it seems a lot of energy has shifted eastward towards Jamaica, probably due to the strong front that even cleared out the NW Caribbean. Just a guess, but possible per some of the models most of the rain will be east of Florida.

Frank2
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests