ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6861
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Location: Martin County, Florida

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#61 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:07 am

Image
06Z
Image
06z Intensity... Moderate TS potential over next 48 hours...
0 likes   
Resident of the Atlantic Basin's Hurricane Hit Capital!

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8943
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#62 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:52 am

GFS & HWRF show strongest winds to be E and south of COC with minimal impacts to south FL, windwise.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20095
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#63 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:07 am

00Z ECMWF ensembles take this generally through South Florida on a SW to NE trajectory:

Image
0 likes   

joey
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:11 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#64 Postby joey » Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:48 am

0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8943
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#65 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:56 am

12z GFS is stronger than previous runs, as a warm core moderate to strong tropical storm as crosses the Bahamas Sunday morning.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
sunnyday
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1503
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:16 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#66 Postby sunnyday » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:05 am

When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4908
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#67 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:09 am

sunnyday wrote:When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?

It’s looking like it might miss S. FL to the south going through the Florida straits.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

joey
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:11 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#68 Postby joey » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:37 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
sunnyday wrote:When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?

It’s looking like it might miss S. FL to the south going through the Florida straits.


maybe not
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_8.png
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20095
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#69 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:36 pm

slight north shift with 12Z GEFS:

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20095
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#70 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:29 pm

12Z CMC ensembles shift slightly west. 0 to 48 hour animation below with many passing through South Florida and the Keys:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8943
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#71 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:37 pm

12z Euro is still not doing much with it, I am tossing it out the window.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20095
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models

#72 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:53 pm

12Z ECMWF ensembles animation. looks like 93L meets up with the cold front over or near South Florida/Keys:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20095
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#73 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:38 pm

Another slight west shift with the GFS because it looks to move 93L faster:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20095
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#74 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:04 pm

another west shift with the GFS ensembles:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20095
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#75 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:13 pm

18Z NAVGEM landfall in the Keys now:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2224
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#76 Postby blp » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:52 pm

18z HWRF has a sizeable shift west and now right offshore. Another shift west like that it will be over Miami.

Now down 984mb.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3831
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm
Location: Florida

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#77 Postby Frank2 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:31 pm

Hard to understand where the models are getting this data - considering the system is very poorly organized and shear already present over South Florida is forecast to increase ahead of the front.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20095
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#78 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:39 pm

Frank2 wrote:Hard to understand where the models are getting this data - considering the system is very poorly organized and shear already present over South Florida is forecast to increase ahead of the front.


Because the models move the upper anticyclone NE in tandem with 93l. For example:

Image
0 likes   

joey
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 133
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:11 pm

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#79 Postby joey » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:39 pm

models have this very close to south fl as this comes off cuba it could bounce right over remember what fay did when she bouced off cuba right to so fl so in watching mode here anything can happen
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20095
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#80 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:48 pm

Uptick in in intensity on 00Z:

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest