ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3831
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm
Location: Florida

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#81 Postby Frank2 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:11 pm

True, but 1001 is believable but not the 984, even with the upper high.
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1474
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#82 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:30 pm

Frank2 wrote:True, but 1001 is believable but not the 984, even with the upper high.

Models haven’t done too well with intensity except in one case with HWRF, who would’ve expected Maria or Irma to reach the categories they reached... this season has been notorious for powerful canes in favorable conditions so I wouldn’t put it to bed just yet.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3026
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#83 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:55 pm

here you see last few models runs show now closer to south fl http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=18&year=2017
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20095
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#84 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:17 am

06Z GFS

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20095
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#85 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:22 am

06Z GFS ensembles have shifted west:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2049
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Winter Springs, Fl

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#86 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:41 am

The ensemble members all appear to be a tad slow and a bit too far west. Now that a better defined center has been identified I think we'll see these all shift east and north substantially
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2463
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#87 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:10 am

chaser1 wrote:The ensemble members all appear to be a tad slow and a bit too far west. Now that a better defined center has been identified I think we'll see these all shift east and north substantially


12z GFS has a landfall in the mid-upper Keys and is 3mb stronger just off the coast of SE Fla.
1 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6496
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#88 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:17 am

the models are keeping this distinct until after it hits New England or Canada
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8939
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#89 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:32 am

12z HWRF so far has a better handle on TD 18 than the 12z GFS, it forecasted the formation of the LLC like we saw this morning further east quite nicely.
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2049
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Winter Springs, Fl

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#90 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:44 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
chaser1 wrote:The ensemble members all appear to be a tad slow and a bit too far west. Now that a better defined center has been identified I think we'll see these all shift east and north substantially


12z GFS has a landfall in the mid-upper Keys and is 3mb stronger just off the coast of SE Fla.


Yep, was surprised to see that. In spite of the anticipated weak "north quadrant" wind field, I'd still think that NHC might have to begrudgingly change a couple of their watches, to warnings if satellite verifies any near term northward motion
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2049
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Winter Springs, Fl

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#91 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:45 am

Alyono wrote:the models are keeping this distinct until after it hits New England or Canada


Looks like they're gonna get one decent little Nor'easter...... er, "South'easter that is :cheesy:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26851
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#92 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 28, 2017 12:23 pm

It seems most models actually keep this distinct all the way in now?
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6496
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models

#93 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:06 pm

EC does not. it merges it well before New England
1 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6496
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#94 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 28, 2017 10:50 pm

GFS a hot mess here. Now it has massive convective feedback for the Hatteras low and has it looking semi-tropical. Philippe appears much weaker this time around as the convective feedback is focused on the other system
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6496
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#95 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 29, 2017 1:25 am

ECMWF has a 972mb hurricane hitting Cape Cod

One problem, it has the center east of Florida at 6Z
0 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1370
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: PHILIPPE - Models

#96 Postby xironman » Sun Oct 29, 2017 6:02 am

HRRR Shows a hybrid Philippe

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests