WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#21 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:15 am

ManilaTC wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:---text removed---
Image


Can i ask for the link of this one? thanks

http://wxcharts.eu
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 29, 2017 4:00 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W)
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 114.4E IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:00 pm

TXPQ23 KNES 292122
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 29/2030Z

C. 9.6N

D. 109.7E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DIFFICULT TO FIND 95W LOW LEVL CENTER AND SYSTEM DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD IN LW/SW IR IMAGERY. SHEAR PATTERN WITH LOOSELY DEFINED
CLOUDS LINES LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREE FROM SMALL COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT
OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LOW LEVEL CENTER.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#24 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:19 am

TXPQ23 KNES 300855
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 30/0830Z

C. 8.3N

D. 111.6E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF
DISCERNABLE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND BANDING OF CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:20 am

95W INVEST 171030 0600 7.7N 110.0E WPAC 15 1010

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#26 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:24 am

Well EURO sees less strengthening in the WPAC.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#27 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:37 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.4N 111.2E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WNW OF BRUNEI IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION. A 301342Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT OVAL
CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KT WIND BARBS, THOUGH MANY BARBS ARE FLAGGED
CONTAMINATED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. 95W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KT), AND SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
CIRCULATION PERSISTING AND MOVING WESTWARD, THEN DEVELOPING IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL, WEST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA, AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:41 pm

Image

Looking a lot better organized.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#29 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:36 pm

TCFA for Invest 95W...

Image
REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N 110.2E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM ESE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 301342Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT OVAL CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KT WIND BARBS, THOUGH MANY BARBS ARE FLAGGED CONTAMINATED. A 301330 OSCAT PASS DEPICTS 15-20 KT WINDS, CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTURBANCE RELATED TO STRONG STRAIGHTLINE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND 10 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 95W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT), AND SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION PERSISTING AND MOVING WESTWARD, THEN DEVELOPING IN THE BAY OF BENGAL, WEST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA, AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 18Z MODEL RUNS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR DISTURBANCE INTENSIFICATION AROUND THE MALAY PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#30 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:37 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#31 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:39 am

TPPN11 PGTW 310624

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (SE OF VIETNAM)

B. 31/0600Z

C. 7.98N

D. 108.88E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

TXPQ23 KNES 310310
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 31/0230Z

C. 8.3N

D. 110.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10 SCALE
FOR A DT=1.5 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#32 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:31 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#33 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:33 am

TXPQ23 KNES 310906
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 31/0830Z

C. 7.2N

D. 107.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3.5/10 BANDING ON LOG-10 SCALE
FOR A DT=2.0. MET=1.5 PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#34 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 6:43 am

Wow so the models were very robust with this a few days ago. NAVGEM and EURO no longer develops this. GFS is now the only reliable model that does develops this. A weak TS at best. It shows this storm becoming a monster in the BOB.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#35 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:10 am

It appears to me that the global models have a high tendency of developing these disturbances over the SCS and NIO basin too quickly during last few and first few months of the year...
I still think this has a potential to become a significant TC over the BoB though...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#36 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:35 pm

this looks a lot better than 96W does tonight. Circulation better defined under intense convection
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#37 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:21 am

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 010130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310130Z OCT 17//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/312030Z OCT 17//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 310130).
REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 312030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0N 108.1E TO 7.7N 102.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.1N 107.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.1N 107.3E, 221 NM SSE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 311800Z GCOM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HIGHLIGHTS
THE SHEARED SEPARATION BETWEEN DEEP CONVECTION, CONCENTRATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE, AND LOW LEVEL FEATURES TO
THE NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AS WINDS ALOFT ARE
MOSTLY EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED
OVER THE DISTURBANCE AS WELL, WITH VALUES NOW RANGING FROM 10-20 KT.
LAND INTERACTION WITH VIETNAM MAY BE ALSO BE HINDERING THE
DISTURBANCE’S DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY. SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE, FROM
28-29C. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, 95W HAS BEEN CAUGHT IN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY, BUT MODELS AND
CONSENSUS STILL FORECAST IT TO ULTIMATELY PROPAGATE WESTWARD. GLOBAL
MODELS EITHER FORECAST SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION INTO A COMPACT
CIRCULATION, OR DISSIPATE THE DISTURBANCE ENTIRELY AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020130Z.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#38 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:23 am

TPPN11 PGTW 010858

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (S OF VIETNAM)

B. 01/0830Z

C. 7.82N

D. 106.61E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

TXPQ23 KNES 010916
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 01/0830Z

C. 7.9N

D. 106.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SHEAR WITH CIRCULAR DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED UNDER A SMALL COLD OVERCAST MEASURING LESS
THAN 1.5DEG. DT=2.0. MET AND PT ARE 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE
CLOUD FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#39 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:20 am

The possibility of 95W's movement being influenced on the next few days by the approaching 96W is closely being watched... 96W's presence may cause 95W to have an erratic movement in the vicinity of Southern/Western Thailand...

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#40 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:55 am

The anticipated strength of this one by the time it reaches and crosses Thailand range from a Low Pressure Area to a Tropical Storm...
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