WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#41 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:11 pm

JTWC drops the TCFA and downgrades to MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 105.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 106.3E, APPROXIMATELY 170
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DISPLACED
NORTH OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). OUTFLOW FROM TD 28W IS
INDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER 95W AND STIFLING
DEVELOPMENT. A 011933Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER LAND FROM THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE LEANING MORE
TOWARDS DISSIPATION, WITH ONLY NAVGEM PREDICTING 95W BECOMING A
WEAK, COMPACT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF THAILAND BEFORE
CROSSING INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. ALL OTHERS FORECAST DISSIPATION
AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE MALAYSIAN PENINSULA. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1021 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#42 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:18 am

I still think that 95W, or possibly a new and more dominant vortex/circulation coming from this same general area, still has a potential to eventually organize and strengthen over the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal...

Additionally, the remnants of Damrey is forecast to emerge into the Gulf of Thailand on the next few days, and perhaps even enter the Andaman Sea... Redevelopment of a Tropical Cyclone is not anticipated from the remnants of Damrey alone, but there is a possibility that the remnants will merge with 95W(or with a new disturbance) next week...

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#43 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:27 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
104.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 104.2E, APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). OUTFLOW FROM TD 28W IS INDUCING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OVER 95W AND STIFLING DEVELOPMENT. A 011933Z 85GHZ SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER LAND FROM THE LLC.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE LEANING MORE TOWARDS DISSIPATION, WITH ONLY NAVGEM
PREDICTING 95W BECOMING A WEAK, COMPACT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE
GULF OF THAILAND BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. ALL OTHERS
FORECAST DISSIPATION AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE MALAYSIAN PENINSULA.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1021 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#44 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:45 pm

95W INVEST 171104 0000 6.2N 101.1E WPAC 15 1010

Center overland.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#45 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:49 pm

95W persists near/over the Malay Peninsula...

95W INVEST 171105 0000 5.3N 100.9E WPAC 25 1004

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Damrey's remnants will enter the northern part of the Gulf of Thailand within this day or tomorrow, and it is looking likely that they will merge with 95W (with 95W being the dominant system) within the next couple of days or so...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#46 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:54 pm

Model guidance shows 95W slowly drifting WNW-NW towards Western/Southern Thailand during the next couple of days and then emerging into the Andaman Sea, and entering the Bay of Bengal mid or late this week...

Image
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Land interaction with the Malay Peninsula is preventing/limiting 95W's development at the moment, but it still appears that the chances of further organization and strengthening will improve once the system is over the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#47 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 05, 2017 5:54 am

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 050730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.6N 101.3E TO 11.5N 100.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
050700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.2N
101.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 101.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 101.3E, APPROXIMATELY
515NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE CONSOLIDATING, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 050305Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER. A 050306Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10KTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER LAND, WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF
OF THAILAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA. ONCE BACK
OVER WATER IN ABOUT 12 HOURS, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29C) SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060730Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#48 Postby jconsor » Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:15 am

Can you please post the link for these ensemble storm track graphics?

Thanks!

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Model guidance shows 95W slowly drifting WNW-NW towards Western/Southern Thailand during the next couple of days and then emerging into the Andaman Sea, and entering the Bay of Bengal mid or late this week...

Image
Image

Land interaction with the Malay Peninsula is preventing/limiting 95W's development at the moment, but it still appears that the chances of further organization and strengthening will improve once the system is over the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#49 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:12 am

29W TWENTYNINE 171106 0000 7.4N 102.7E WPAC 20 1006
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#50 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Nov 06, 2017 4:17 am

Now Tropical Depression 29W by JTWC...
JTWC is forecasting it to become a Typhoon/Hurricane-strength system over the Bay of Bengal... Still uncertain on where will it head to after passing through the Andaman-Nicobar islands, however...


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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#51 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Nov 06, 2017 5:06 am

0z is showing strong shear over quite a few days further N in bob .
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#52 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:40 am

Image
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40 knots for the first landfall in a very sparsely populated area.

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER. A 060244Z
METOP-B 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING BUT DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A
060232Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS
BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 29W IS TRACKING POLEWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AS IT STRENGTHENS AND STEERS UNDER AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, ALONG 18-20N LATITUDE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS UNTIL
IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA NEAR TAU 24. TD 29W WILL
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSITS THE ANDAMAN SEA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 29W WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES A BROAD BREAK
IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER
BANGLADESH. AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING STEERING INFLUENCE, THERE
IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS IT DEVELOPS
A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W

#53 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:46 am

TPPN11 PGTW 060920

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTY-NINE)

B. 06/0900Z

C. 8.60N

D. 102.42E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

A. 29W (NONAME)

B. 06/0830Z

C. 8.3N

D. 102.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON 0.3 CURVED BANDING. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W

#54 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 6:54 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W

#55 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:09 pm

Not expecting any strengthening any longer.

WDPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO REFORM TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061530Z INFRARED HIMAWARI SATELLITE
IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKLY-DEFINED AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5-10 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). TD 29W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE HAS CHANGED, FORECAST INTENSITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED
IN THE LATER TAUS AS A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.
B. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT REMAINS IN MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
THAILAND THROUGH TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS OVER THE MALAY
PENINSULA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND. TD 29W
WILL SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER AND TRANSITS THE
ANDAMAN SEA. TD 29W WILL REACH OF MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 60. NUMERICAL MODEL FIELDS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT
DISSIPATES TD 29W INTO A LARGER CIRCULATION IN THE BAY OF BENGAL
AFTER TAU 60. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, SPECIFICALLY THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE, REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W

#56 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:39 pm

Currently passing over the Malay Peninsula... JTWC has downgraded it into a 20kt LPA...

29W TWENTYNINE 171108 0000 11.4N 99.4E WPAC 20 1008

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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W

#57 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:12 am

Significant restrengthening looking more and more unlikely once it emerges back over water due to increasing wind shear...
However, aside from 29W, a broad area of disturbed weather over the southern Bay of Bengal needs to be closely watched for possible further development during the rest of this week and next week... It is possible that the weak 29W will merge or get absorbed into this feature on the next few days....


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