EPAC: TROPICAL STORM SELMA

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Macrocane
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EPAC: TROPICAL STORM SELMA

#1 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:09 pm

EPAC system now with a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclones in the next 5 days

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 26 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather, associated with an elongated area of
low pressure, is located just west of the coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression could form during the
next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward near the coast of Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central
America through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Last edited by Macrocane on Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#2 Postby zeehag » Fri Oct 27, 2017 8:22 am

do we have any info on ts selma. where and what is it going to do?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#3 Postby zeehag » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:38 am

is a most uninteresting but potentially wet time for south of chiapas .
it is the following one in which i hold more interest
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#4 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:19 pm

Tropical Storm Selma now
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#5 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Oct 27, 2017 1:29 pm

Looks like another weak TS for this EPAC season. Depending on 93L's strength, it might suck out energy from Selma to become the dominant system.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM SELMA

#6 Postby Macrocane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:00 pm

Problem will be heavy rainfall in Guatemala and El Salvador.
Right now we have grey skies but no rain yet.


000
WTPZ35 KNHC 271736
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Selma Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

...SELMA TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 89.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific coast of Guatemala

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours.

Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Selma was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 89.5 West. Selma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and the
cyclone is expected to turn toward the north by early Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Selma will approach the coast
of El Salvador or Guatemala on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast before Selma reaches the
coast of Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, southern
Honduras and far western Nicaragua over the next couple of days.
Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in El Salvador
and southern Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early Saturday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Selma are forecast to affect portions
of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala
later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM SELMA

#7 Postby Macrocane » Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:00 pm

00
WTPZ45 KNHC 272035
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017

The center of Selma became exposed shortly after the issuance of the
previous advisory, however, deep convection has redeveloped near and
just south of the center this afternoon. The system is feeling the
affects of moderate northeasterly shear and does not appear to have
strengthened. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB
are 2.0 (30 kt), however, the initial intensity is maintained at
35 kt in agreement with the overnight ASCAT data. Unfortunately,
the ASCAT satellites did not pass over the tropical cyclone today.

Satellite and microwave fixes show that Selma has turned more
poleward and is now moving north-northwestward or 345/6 kt. A
large mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the Gulf of
Mexico tonight and Saturday which should cause Selma to turn
northward later today or tonight. The 12Z track guidance has come
into better agreement and brings Selma onshore in El Salvador
or eastern Guatemala on Saturday, and little change was made to the
previous NHC forecast track.

Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is expected to remain over
the tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, and little overall
change in strength is expected before landfall. Selma should
rapidly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Central America
Saturday night or Sunday.

It should be noted that the primary threat associated with Selma
is heavy rainfall, with totals possibly as high as 10 inches
over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 11.7N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 12.5N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 13.6N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 14.8N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TROPICAL STORM SELMA

#8 Postby Newbie » Fri Oct 27, 2017 9:55 pm

Is there any chance Selma could cross over into the Western Caribbean?
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