WPAC: DAMREY - Dissipated

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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:03 pm

Image

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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - Severe Tropical Storm

#42 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:06 pm

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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - Severe Tropical Storm

#43 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:32 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2017 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 12:33:37 N Lon : 113:32:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 978.5mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -64.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.9 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - Severe Tropical Storm

#44 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:33 pm

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR DAMREY (28W) 2017
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11021758
SATCON: MSLP = 978 hPa MSW = 71 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 70.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 73 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 205 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - Severe Tropical Storm

#45 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:34 pm

Image

Image

The eye feature is now starting to show in visible sat imagery.
DAMREY should be upgraded to Typhoon Status onbthe next advisory.
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - Severe Tropical Storm

#46 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:11 pm

NOW OFFICIALLY A TYPHOON.

All Tropical Cyclones

TY 1723 (Damrey)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 3 November 2017
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 3 November>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N12°50' (12.8°)
E113°35' (113.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 440 km (240 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#47 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:26 pm

28W DAMREY 171103 0000 12.6N 113.6E WPAC 65 985
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#48 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:42 pm

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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#49 Postby Alyono » Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:18 pm

intensifying quickly now. Could come inland at greater than 100 kts
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#50 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:38 am

Easily T5.0 based on curbed band signature.
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#51 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:00 am

Typhoon Damrey.

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM, WITH SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, CONSISTENT WITH A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 022329Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULAR EYE FEATURE AND CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS, AND IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN EXCEPTIONALLY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH VERY LOW (5
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES, HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 DEG CELSIUS, WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
STRONG AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS TAPPED INTO THE JET LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA. TY 28W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VWS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS TY 28W TRANSITS WEST OVER WATER. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM, SSTS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 27
DEG CELSIUS BUT STILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF VIETNAM. AFTER
LANDFALL, TY DAMREY WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VIETNAM AND CAMBODIA. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL BE ONLY A WEAK TROPICAL STORM, AND REEMERGE AROUND TAU 60 IN
THE GULF OF THAILAND AS A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF THAILAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
DETERIORATES AS VWS INCREASES AND OUTFLOW DECREASES. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#52 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:03 am

With the rate of intensification, Damrey may be a powerful typhoon upon landfall. Oh, and a retired one as well

TY 1723 (Damrey)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 3 November 2017

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 3 November>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N12°40' (12.7°)
E113°10' (113.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 440 km (240 NM)
SE 330 km (180 NM)
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#53 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:48 am

28W DAMREY 171103 0600 12.7N 112.8E WPAC 75 967

Up to 75 knots 1 min.
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#54 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:41 am

JTWC is not forecasting anything extreme. cat2 85kts
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#55 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:24 am

The remnants of Damrey is forecast to emerge into the Gulf of Thailand on the next few days, and perhaps even enter the Andaman Sea... Redevelopment of a Tropical Cyclone is not anticipated from the remnants of Damrey alone, but there is a possibility that the remnants will merge with Invest 95W(or with a new disturbance) next week...
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#56 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:29 am

Image
Image

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT AT TIMES, SHOWS A FORMATIVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE VISIBLE IN THE MULTI-SPECTRAL LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AND AREA OF WARM
(27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS TAPPING INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. TYPHOON
DAMREY IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK
OF 85 KNOTS AROUND TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING THE COAST OF VIETNAM WHERE INITIAL LAND INTERACTION WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. TY 28W IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIETNAM PRIOR TO TAU 24. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE INDO-CHINA PENEINSULA WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. TY
DAMREY WILL TRACK BACK OVER WATER INTO THE GULF OF THAILAND AS A
WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND FULLY DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASED VWS
AND POOR OUTFLOW, REACHING FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#57 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:36 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#58 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:39 am

Image

Very small eye.
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#59 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:09 am

28W DAMREY 171103 1200 12.8N 111.6E WPAC 85 971

Category 2.
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Re: WPAC: DAMREY - TYPHOON

#60 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:50 am

They increased the intensity from 75 Cat 1 to 85 knots Cat 2.

JMA is still stuck with 70 knots 10 min with no reasoning.
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